The New Nation - Internet Edition

A SENIOR economist at the World Bank, Dhaka office, reportedly projected that the remittance inflow to Bangladesh would remain above US$ 10 billion in the current fiscal year irrespective of gravity of the global recession. But The Economist in an article on its July 30 issue cast confusion over the optimistic forecast. The observation of the article is also supported by the World Bank report on remittance inflow to the developing countries. Unlike the prediction made by its economist, the World Bank report projected 7 to 10 per cent decline in remittance inflow to developing countries in 2009.

The remittance inflow as a whole to the developing countries, according to the report, would go down to US$ 304 billion in 2009, from an estimated US$ 328 billion in 2008. The report, however, does not have a separate projection for Bangladesh. Things that grew rapidly in 2008 included home foreclosures, government defects and the ranks of the jobless, as the Economist article goes. More encouragingly, remittances to developing countries including Bangladesh also expanded and the World Bank reckons that migrant workers sent US$328 billion home to their families last year, 15 per cent more than the preceding year 2007.

As reported, continued growth in remittances last year may not reflect their resilience to recession. It takes a few months for changes in host economies to have an effect. Bangladesh following the worldwide recession apprehended very rightly a sharp shrink in the global job markets of the migrant workforce. Obviously apprehending possible adverse impact of the global economic recession, countries from Italy to South Korea have reduced the number of immigrant workers they let in. However, the cloud of recession is disappearing gradually to show up a good prospect.