The New Nation - Internet Edition

Anu Mahmud

Population control activities have been taking a back seat in the agenda of successive governments in Bangladesh. Economists and other experts do hardly debate this. The result of negligence has been an uninterrupted swelling of the population size. It is credibly feared that with no significant further reduction in the annual population growth from the current 1.47 per cent, this country's population would double to become some 300 million within another 40 or 50 years from the present about 150 million. The population size would indeed become unsustainable even well before that happening. The population time bomb is sticking a hardly proportionate concern is being shown towards this very great problem.

Every year some 2.5 million to 3.0 million babies are being delivered to add to the population, but the acceptors of family planning methods are only about 55 per cent of fertile couples and others in the present population. Population control, thus, deserves to be recognized as the number one economic and social problem of the country. But hardly such recognition and follow-up actions have come from successive governments in this are. The urgency of population control was not even high-lighted at the top of the electoral agenda of the major political parties during the last general election. For the present elected government, it is, however, better to be late than never. It should lose no time in reorienting the thrust areas of its activities and give proper emphasis on population control on a priority basis give proper emphasis on population control on a priority basis.

So far, a balance could be maintained between the country's growing population and the production increases needed in various sectors to rear this population. But production capacities are likely to reach such a state some years from now when maintaining of this balance will become difficult indeed.

Clearly-then, hardly there is any room for being complacent in the population control drive. The population growth rate in Bangladesh will not be brought down to zero level like in the Scandinavian countries. There would be encountered strong social and cultural barriers to such initiatives. But it can be tried to effectively bring it below one per cent in a decade from now if the same goal is earnestly pursued. This decrease in growth will mean a manageable population by the middle of the present century. But population growth going down below one per cent will be dependent on extending contraceptive practices very extensively at the grassroots level among the poor and running the official population control activities with much greater efficiency and in a corruption-free-manner.

Keen observers at field levels know it that the official family planning programme is not running well. The door-to-door visitors of the family planning authorities of the government to households are hardly seen doing their job. Although they are paid from the public purse to at least visit each home in the areas where they are posted to advise all males and females with reproductive capacity, they turn up only casually and at long intervals. Contraceptives meant for free distribution or at nominal prices among users are actually found to be sold at market value that usually discourages the latter from buying them for use. There is a programme of operation on men and women who opt for the same for permanent control of reproductive capacities. Awards are to be provided for those who submit to the operations. But the award money and other prizes are hardly used properly in many cases. Besides, lack of its publicity has also meant its not gaining in popularity. Therefore, the greatest need seems to be flushing very clean the various corruptions and irregulations in the official population control programmes and much revamping the same for achieving real effectiveness.

Investing in women as a way of advancing the cause of national development looks like an eminently sensible idea. And that is what the observance of World Population Day this year has been all about. There can hardly be any arguing with the fact that a rising population threatens to put at risk all strategies related to economic progress in the country; and this despite a declining population growth of 1.39 per cent at the present time. And in spite of the rate of reproductivity now being 2.7 per cent as compared to 6.3 per cent in 1971, there are some rather obvious reasons why the population issue needs to be handled in a more streamlined manner. Foremost among them is the question of how men more than women are dealing with the population control programme at the various tiers of society. For instance, it has been suggested that of the 55.8 per cent of those who employ family planning methods, a meagre 5.2 per cent happen to be men. In other words, the apathy of men toward family planning as opposed to the greater sense of awareness of the issue on the part of women is a stark reality.

It is here that the idea of women's education buttressing the overall programme of population control, indeed turning population into a productive factor in societal life gains significance. Both the theme of investing in women as well as the principle of girl's education being a weapon against poverty (the latter being the theme of the United Nations Association of Bangladesh) only add greater weight to the role women can play in this respect. Over the past many years, women have made quite considerable strides in education and have made remarkable inroads in various employment sectors in the country. There can be no denying such a reality. And yet there cannot be room for complacence here, for the simple reason that there are still very large areas where the measage of population control needs to reach. We are especially referring to rural regions here where a conspicuous decline in medical facilities, a near absence of instruction on family planning, et cetera, have lately proved to be worrying. When the health minister himself speaks of a need to beef up the population control programme in such regions as Sylhet and Chittagong and also in chars, slums and haor areas, the question of what remains to be done becomes clearer.

All of this takes us back to thoughts of an expansion in women's education. The focus or such expansion must be in the rural regions where, for all our delight in a decline in gender discrimination, powerful pockets of male chauvinism remain to keep women circumscribed in their activities. There is no question that educating women is a first step toward empowering them at various levels of society and politics. In its turn, empowerment leads to a bigger sense of responsibility through giving women a decision-making role in the family. The result is an improvement in living standards for all.

All of the above are of course fine as sentiments. What truly needs to b done is for these ideas to be transformed from platitudes into tangible realities.

Unemployment and poverty go hand in hand since one is complementary to another. The rate of unempoyment is very high in Bangladesh; one in three persons is thought to be either unemployed or underemplyed in the country. Despite an impressive economic growth for nearly two decades, the enemployment rate has not gone down because of the entry of a farge number of new faces, an estimated 2.0 million, to the labour market each year. This problem has been persisting largely because of a low industrial base and the declining contribution of the agricultural sector to the country's gross domestic product (GDP).

However, Bangladesh faces in an unusual situation this year as far as absorption of new entrants to the labour market is concerned. The industrial sector has been doing well in recent years, creating job opening for an increased number of new entrants to the job market. But because of the slow-down under the impact of the global recession, the industrial sector, according to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), is expected to employ only 0.4 million new workers this year. This means that wo other major sectors of the economy, agriculture and services, would experience extra pressure from the additional workforce. But these two sectors do not have the capacity to withstand the pressure and absorb the additional workforce.

In terms of contribution to the GDP, the agriculture sector, which was at the top once, has scaled down to number three position. But the sector is still at the top in terms of its labour absorption capacity. It employed 24.1 million labourers in the fiscal 2008. However, there exist some distortions in the nature of employment. A large part of the workforce in the farm sector is underemployed and the remuneration the under employed labourers get at the end of the day is far less than what is needed for their survival. Yet they do not have any other option but to live with that. The situation is likely to deteriorate further because of the pressure from an increased number of unemployed labourers on the farm sector this year. Moreover, the allocations made in the development budget for the current fiscal, being lower than that of the previous year, will make it difficult for the sector, which has a share of more than a half of the GDP, employs the second largest labour force, nearly 19.5 million, has expanded in recent years, mainly at the cost of the farm sector.

The problem has been exacerbated by the decline in manpower export, coupled with axing of jobs of the expatriate Bangladeshis, particularly in the oil-rich Middle Eastern countries. Without any major turnaround in the global economic situation and consequent rise in oil prices, the prospects for labour intake by these countries are unlikely to improve. But the government cannot remain just an onlooker in the face of a deteriorating labour market situation; it should do the needful to boost demand for new employments.

In addition to putting in place right policies and incentives to encourage new investments in the real sectors of the economy including agriculture and manufacturing, the government would have to create opportunities, for more seasonal employments through schemes such as food for work, test relief, 100-days employment generation and the like.