The New Nation - Internet Edition

A. Mannan

(From previous issue)

Impacts of Mega Dam at Tipaimukh:-

(i) Tipaimukh Dam without operation of Fulertal Barrage:- It means supposedly no withdrawal of water up or downstream before the flow enters Bangladesh border. Based on the theory of constancy the water flow quantity for the year as a whole will not fluctuate much. But variation will occur seasonwise specially due to the controlled and regulated release of water through the turbines and spillway gates. Thus, age old natural flow of the river water will turn into an unnatural flow.

The following issues are needed to be borne in mind here:

Situation at a hydropower generation of 412 MW (most likely generation will be kept at 412 MW until Fulertal Barrage goes into operation and starts withdrawal of water downstream of the Dam)

Situation at generation of hydropower of 1200 MW (80% of 1500 MW)

Season i.e. rain falls in monsoon, post monsoon and winter periods.

Scenario I(A):- Only Dam and no Barrage. (at a hydropower generation of 412 MW)

Monsoon period: Water level will be maintained up the Dam point reservoir utilising excess water of the monsoon rainfalls giving an effect of less water flow to Bangladesh than normal flow Bangladesh experiences now during monsoon. Excessive rainfalls may cause release of more water through the spillway gates. Water will pass through the Dam downstream in two ways i.e. through the turbines after generation of hydropower and excess water from the reservoir up the Dam through the spillway gates. Obviously, there is bound to be siltation of rivers downstream in Bangladesh.

Post monsoon period : Due to global climate change (e.g. CFC emission etc.) distortion in the pattern of rainfalls has been taking place resulting into excess rainfalls at the end of monsoon and will necessitate release of excess water through the spillway gates of the Dam and may create unusual and unnatural off-monsoon floods in Bangladesh.

Thus the wet lands of Surma-Kushiayara basin will experience waterlogged, water holds, rendering the wet land unsuitable for early cultivation which hitherto the people of this area have been doing from tome immemorial. Hence, there will be less or no crops.

Winter period : The level of water at the reservoir up the Dam and level of turbine operation for hydropower generation of 412 MW we are likely to have a little more quantity of water than we set now in the winter, but much will depend upon release of water through the turbines and, if any, through the spillway gates. However, we can not afford to turn blind eye to the opposite scenario, when we may have less water, even in winter, due to any make-up filling of water in the reservoir up the Dam and level of operation of the turbines.

The basic issue here is that flow pattern will change due to man-made Dam disrupting God-made natural flow. In a nutshell, to obtain our legitimate share of water flow we shall have to depend upon the mercy of the Indian authority who will control and regulate flow through the Dam.

Regulated flow entailing change in the pattern of flow will do a lot of harm due to:-

Reduction in agri-crops, loss in navigability, less water availability, siltation of river beds, off-season floods, dwindlement of fisheries [fishes of the mountain range upstream coming down to the haor areas for spawning or otherwise will not be able to cross border through the international river due to the Dam since no international passports will be issued (?)], lower ground water with more arsenic contamination and as a whole Bangladesh will undergo a total adverse change in pattern of the ecosystem.

Scenario I(B):- The scenario here is as that of I(A) above except that hydropower generation will be for 1200 MW.

The situation is likely to be similar to that of I(A), (a), (b) and (c) above with perhaps, more variation in pattern of flow due to maintenance of level of water in the reservoir up the Dam, more variation in releasing water through the turbines and spillway gates.

Scenario II:- Operation of the Dam and the Fulertal Barrage through withdrawal of water at downstream of the Dam. (Here it has been assumed that hydropower generation will be to the level of 1200 MW involving maintenance of higher level of water in the reservoir up the Dam.)

Monsoon period :- Heavy withdrawal of water coming out at the turbines as well as spillway gates will be diverted at downstream of the Dam to the Fulertal Barrage leaving little share of the water flow for Bangladesh. Hence there will be reduction in water flow for Bangladesh. Only very unusual and heavy rainfalls uncontainable and un-manageable at the reservoir up the Dam also imposing at the Fulertal Barrage a threat towards floods, an increase water flow will be released towards Bangladesh causing havocs of floods.

Post monsoon period :- Depending upon rainfalls, manageability of water level at the Dam as well as that at the Barrage, our wet lands of the Surma/Kushiyara Basin may be exempted from excess water i.e. no waterholds thus enabling early cultivation. However, unnatural and heavy rainfalls may reverse the situation and cause formation of waterholds in the haor areas. Winter period : Heavy withdrawal upstream for the fulertal Barrage may leave little or nothing for Bangladesh at the downstream. Literally 1/3 Bangladesh is likely to go under the process of desertification ensuing a total collapse for 1/3 of Bangladesh.

Adverse effects upon various areas and disciplines like agriculture, fisheries, water resources, navigability, ground water level, livelihood etc. have been highlighted earlier. These will need minor adjustments here and there for different scenarios mentioned above.

(9) Generation of Hydropower:- The capacity designed is 1500 MW @ 80% = 1200 MW (assumed). But the proposed firm generation set at only 412 MW is more intriguing.

Of the expected generation of 412 MW, Manipur has been offered 40 MW free to appease the people there. Thereafter how much India can afford to sell to Bangladesh and at what price, inclusive of the installation of transmission line up to the border and absorption of its cost in the price, all need to be looked at with a grain of salt.

Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka raised a few issues such as :-

Bangladesh will not be affected by the Dam.

India will not build any Barrage (not specified whether at the Dam site only leaving aside Fulertal Barrage?).

Many politicians, elites and experts in Bangladesh, he went on in saying, are delivering "awol/fauol" talks here and there without proper studies. He is perhaps jight in that "without much studies".

The 64 m dollar question is whether he or for that matter his Govt. did share with Bangladesh any documents to study. He is better to relay the message to his Govt. to provide the necessary data to Bangladesh in order that Bangladesh can counter any "awol/fauol" talks from any quarter.

Recently Indian High Commissioner stated in a seminar that the concept of constructing Tipaimukh Dam was mooted in 1972 and after having the proposal examined by their experts, consultation has taken place from to time since then. He further reportedly refereed to the UN-Convention on the Non-Navigable Uses of International Watercourses and said that out of 35 signatories needed to make it a law, only 17 signatories sans India and Bangladesh have so far signed. Well, good enough but where is the moral ground does India have? How about Berlin Rules on International Water Resources (2004),-does he or does he not remember?

Has the Indian Excellency forgotten the provisions of SAARC Treaty for at least, bilateral talks in such a situation? Or does he not have anything to do with the Article VI of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty of 1976 ? Further, utterings by an Excellency have to be excellent and excel in many a respect. I now tend to agree that having termed the earthquake risks as hypothetical in spite of the simple data stated in this article, though his Excellency must have known all these, an "awol/fauol" talk disregarding the high earthquake risk appears to be a novice expression of a turn-coat-like astrologer's behavior. It is a great joke of this century. Only recently our lady Foreign Minister has indicated of having received some reports/data.

Be that as it may, these reports/data need to be shared with the experts of high repute possessing unbiased mind-set, as well as with the people and at least in Parliament.

Some of our Honorable Ministers/State Minister have been talking like rookies and spelling out a lot of absurdities like, "We will observe the impacts after the Dam has been constructed", "We shall support if we see any gain for Bangladesh"

"It is only a Dam and we shall share hydropower."

May God help us!