The New Nation - Internet Edition

AP, Geneva

Up to 2 billion people could be infected by swine flu if the current outbreak turns into a pandemic lasting two years, the World Health Organization said Thursday. WHO flu chief Keiji Fukuda said the historical record of flu pandemics indicates one-third of the world's population gets infected in such outbreaks. Independent experts agreed that the estimate was possible but pointed out that many would not show any symptoms.

In Mexico, the hardest hit country so far, high schools and universities opened for the first time in two weeks as the government's top health official insisted the epidemic is on the decline. All students were checked for swine flu symptoms and some were sent home.

"If we do move into a pandemic, then our expectation is that we will see a large number of people infected worldwide," Fukuda said. "If you look at past pandemics, it would be a reasonable estimate to say perhaps a third of the world's population would get infected with this virus."

With the current total population of more than 6 billion, that would mean an infection total of 2 billion, he said, but added that the world has changed since pandemics of earlier generations, and experts are unable to predict if the impact will be greater or smaller.

"We don't really know." said Fukuda. "This is a benchmark from the past. Please do not interpret this as a prediction for the future."

Reuters adds from Bangkok: Asian countries will increase stockpiles of medicine to fight the H1N1 flu virus and look at ways to share essential supplies in the event of an emergency, according to a statement drafted for a meeting Friday.

Health ministers from the 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) plus China, Japan and South Korea will intensify cross-border cooperation and establish joint response teams to fight the spread of the virus, also known as swine flu.

According to the statement, the ministers were concerned that most of the production capacity for vaccines was located in North America and Europe and it was inadequate for a global pandemic.

Asia has no capacity to produce vaccines at the moment.

"Despite other regions having begun to acquire the technology to produce influenza vaccines, access to effective pandemic vaccines is a major problem in the region," the statement said, calling for the transfer of technology to make vaccines and antiviral medicine.

Chinese Health Minister Chen Zhu told reporters Beijing was pressing drug companies in China to increase the existing "quite small" national antiviral stockpile, but admitted it was a tall order to provide enough in a country of 1.3 billion people.

"Our objective is a stockpile for eventually one percent of the population. One percent is already quite huge," he said.

He defended the quarantine of passengers on a flight from Mexico, lifted Thursday after one week.

"At this time, we think this kind of precaution and measures are still necessary, but things may change according to the analysis of the WHO and our experts," Zhu said.

The 13 countries will look at screening people leaving affected areas but are not planning travel bans.

Evidence showed that "imposing travel restrictions would have very little effect on stopping the virus from spreading, but would be highly disruptive to the global and regional communities and pose major negative impacts on the current global economic downturn," the statement said.

Margaret Chan of the World Health Organization (WHO) told the meeting Asian governments had to stay vigilant, but urged them to "refrain from introducing economically and socially destructive measures that lack solid scientific backing and bring no clear benefit."

"The rational use of travel- and trade-related measures is always wise at a time of severe economic downturn," she added.

Asia has seen far fewer confirmed cases of the H1N1 virus, which has killed 44 people in Mexico and two in the United States, and spread across Europe.

However, after the damage wrought by SARS and bird flu in recent years, Asian countries are taking no chances this time.