The New Nation - Internet Edition

BBC Online

Guest columnist Ahmed Rashid in Lahore says US President-elect Barack Obama and the West face a massive task if Pakistan, Afghanistan and the surrounding region are to see greater stability in 2009.

South and Central Asia are the most explosive areas in the world today and will continue to be so in 2009.

The Taleban insurgency in Afghanistan has expanded to the gates of Kabul and there are several insurgencies underway in Pakistan under the leadership of al-Qaeda, the Taleban and allied groups.

There are a number of insurgencies in India where minorities such as Muslims and Christians feel under threat.

Indefinitely stalled

Nuclear-armed India and Pakistan are at daggers drawn after the Mumbai attacks, which India says were carried out by the Pakistan based group, Lashkar-e-Taiba.

The four-year-old peace process between the two countries is indefinitely stalled.

In parts of Central Asia there is increasingly widespread poverty, a collapse of social services and an underground Islamic militant movement.

However the biggest threat emanates from Pakistan, which former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright has described as an "international migraine" where nuclear weapons, terrorism, political instability and poverty all collide.

All these regional problems threaten to undermine the world's stability - as does the presence of global jihadists who will intensify their operations in Europe, Africa and Asia in the coming year.