The New Nation - Internet Edition

Mostafa Kamal Majumder

Not even most of the winners of the just concluded general election can believe that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party which ruled the country for two full terms after the restoration of democracy in 1991 has been routed, to say the least. But what led to this? The BNP yesterday complained of irregularities in the election in 42 constituencies.

A large turnout of voters-according to preliminary estimates 90 per cent in the rural areas, about 80 per cent in urban areas - and a visibly peaceful polling atmosphere has made the people and election observers believe that the polling was proper and peaceful.

The results undoubtedly surprised all because nobody wanted to believe that the BNP and the Jatiya Party bagged 28 and 27 seats respectively in the election that was preceded by a campaign which demonstrated strong popularity for the BNP.

A close look would show that the BNP also suffered from a number of organisational and strategic weaknesses which it found hard to really manage to overcome in the run up to the election. The BNP during the current election was actually divided into four parties, the main party led by Begum Khaleda Zia herself and three other factions by former president Prof. AQM Badruddoza Chowdhury, former minister and member of the BNP standing committee Col. Oli Ahmed and former minister and BNP secretary general Abdul Mannan Bhuiyan under different names.

Plus the mutual mistrust created through the temporary division with a faction earlier led by former finance minister Saifur Rahman and former minister Major (Retd) Hafizuddin Ahmed did not really heal. Some former ministers and MPs remained with Abdul Mannan Bhuiyan and contested the election under the banner-Unity of nationalist independents.

Political pundits are of the view that BNP's election campaign should have been strategically more focussed. The main target of criticism of BNP leaders was the Caretaker Government which was not the contender for power while its arch rival AL was spared of the strong criticisms that it would have otherwise faced. The AL campaign was entirely targeted against the BNP which, according to observers, did not speak much to ward off.

Some observers note that terming the caretaker government a failure was pointless because they did not get to power out of their own volition, but because of failure of the political leadership to keep the political process functioning. Such criticisms thus not only missed BNP's ultimate target but also probably scared those in the administration and those who are associated with it. The BNP Chairperson's statement that if elected her party would refrain from the politics of vengeance was not probably convincing to the target audience because of too much of criticism of the Caretaker Government and her party's commitment to examine suitable changes to the law providing for the caretaker arrangement.

In this context, bringing up the issue of harassment of Begum Zia's sons and the statement coming from the Anti-Corruption Commission twice in a row in reply to contradict those right at the hour of peak election campaign might have had negative influences on the election as far as the BNP is concerned.

Then again, many analysts believe that the BNP and its allies were also the victims of geopolitical goals of big powers which do not want consolidation of power base of Islamic rightists for the former's ultimate objective of confronting China by isolating Bangladesh from its spheres of influence. The BNP and Islamists are believed to have soft corners for China.

Another factor that might also have contributed to some extent to the loss of at least some votes is the fielding of candidates from rival BNP factions which are operating under different names.

The BNP suffered most from the drive against corruption launched by the government and its front ranking leaders except Khandakar Delwar Hossain remained in jail before restrictions were eased and Begum Khaleda Zia set free on 11 September last. BNP's central office remained under lock and key till then and Khandakar Delwar Hossain had to operate from his NAM flat most of the time. AL chief Sheikh Hasina was enlarged on bail during the first fortnight of June this year and she was abroad for treatment before her recent return.

Incumbency factor, though BNP was in power nearly two years before the present caretaker government, was also not in favour of the party which again did not succeed to do much to neutralise. Compared to that the events of the erstwhile AL rule were seven to twelve years old and not fresh in the memory of the people, especially the young voters who were very young at that time.

BNP leaders fought against odds to hurriedly nominate candidates by discarding rebels and deserters. Their rivals in the AL, on the other hand, has a fixed set of candidates chosen in 2007 and also found time to make suitable changes depending on their performance and loyalty to the party during the last two years.

However, despite the many odds it may take time for the average people to come to terms with the election results that has changed the character of the strong two-party system into a unipolar system.