The New Nation - Internet Edition

Prof Muzaffer Ahmed

In the days when market has became supreme in economic policy making, Lord Nicholas Stern has described climate change as the greatest and widest- ranging failure ever seen. The Secretary General of the United Nations has described atmosphere as our "most important public good". Undoubtedly, climate change is one of the core areas of concern as the quest for sustainable development cannot be considered without taking into account climate and climate change which have important impacts on biodiversity, water, forests, land and oceans as well as economic activities involving agriculture, industry and services. The climate change, though not a new phenomenon, has gained a faster pace for a much larger population than in the past. As a common and collective good, changes in global environment affect all nations, and as a global resource, climate resource need to be managed for the benefit of all in the present and in the future as well both nationally and internationally and most importantly intergenerationally. This requires "an equitable international regime" as pointed out by former UN Secretary General Dr. Butros Butros-Ghali. Unfortunately, such a regime is yet to emerge and take roots. Even the national regimes do not take proper consideration of the interlinkages between climate changes, ozone depletion and air pollution through economic activities, by physical, chemical and biological processes and by the impacts of policy decisions. The dominant economic powers and emerging economic powers have failed to adopt common perspective with respect to increasing global environmental risks particularly for the least developed countries which remain most helpless in this regard. The South Commission recognised that future of developing countries rests with them but noted that "they will need access to substantially increased flows of financial resources, strengthened scientific, technical, professional and related institutional capacities and the best available technologies to become full partners in achieving climate security".

Bangladesh is one the most vulnerable countries that suffer and will continue to suffer from global warming and climate change. Bangladesh is a large flood plain with low elevation from sea. Bangladesh has high density of population with attendant high level of poverty whose intensity increases with natural disasters now related to global warming. Bangladesh suffers from severe climatic events which claim lives of millions, destroys livelihood of millions and further washes away the developmental gains achieved through governmental and non governmental efforts. The Stern report shows that the cost of climate change is severe and can reduce per capita consumption per head by 5 to 20 percent. Recent climate calamity in Bangladesh named "Sidr" indeed shows such reduction in the standards of life. This is just one example of how people and eco- system suffer from changes in weather patterns and resultant heavy rainfall, flood, drought, cyclone, storm surge, etc. Between 1991 and 2000, 93 major disasters caused 2,00,000 deaths and $ 5.9 billion in damages in Bangladesh.

Even though it is limited in number, scientists estimate that a sea level rise over the last 100 years has already eroded 65% landmass of 250 sq km of Kutubdia, 22% sq km of Bhola and 180 sq km of Sandwip islands. Bangladesh has suffered from coastal inundation, erosion, saline intrusion, water-logging, de-forestation, acidification, loss of bio-diversity and large scale displacement of population. Future climate change will certainly have more intensified impact on Bangladesh. Bangladesh will experience heavy and at times unseasonal rainfall, flash flood in certain localities, cyclone and tornadoes, dry and desert-like weather in certain parts, high tidal waves and inundation of coastal areas. Some of these are caused by unthoughtful water and land management, unplanned filling of waterbodies, urbanisation, unplanned road building and such man-made interventions. But much is due to non-recognition by the development programmes in the countries of atmosphereric commons. The poverty ridden people must be ensured of life in dignity and a future of hope based on harmony with nature. Climate change is an all encompassing issue involving food security, energy security, health security, livelihood security, security of history and heritage, and freedom from fear involving threat to peace. We must recognise the widest dimension of global warming in all its facets in all the countries, particularly the least developed countries in the coastal regions of the world. The Stem report has pointed out increasing cost of any delay is taking action to mitigate effects of greenhouse emission and IPCC fourth report has confirmed that global warming is accelerating rapidly. The UN climate change Secretariat has pointed out that the poor are already victims of Climate Change and these poor in the low income countries would suffer most from the climate change unless the developed countries act now to limit greenhouse emissions significantly and the poor countries are helped to adopt strategies to address the need for energy demand for accelerated development, to develop low carbon technologies and to prepare for minimising the consequences of current state as well as the future possibility.

Global warming will continue for decades to come and it started many decades earlier. This has predictably serious consequences for Bangladesh. Bangladesh is a vulnerable country in this context and such vulnerability causes stressful condition on developmental efforts made in the past and socio-economic development possibilities in the future. To recall the geographic location of Bangladesh with Himalayas in the north and Bay of Bengal in the south, geo-morphological character of Bangladesh has a distinct coastal topography comprising Ganges tidal plain, semi-active deltaic plain and the largest mangrove forest in the world. As a result of three mighty rivers, particularly eastern region of Bangladesh not only experience erosion, flooding, new shoals, discharge of silt but has experienced natural calamities that has caused repeatedly displacement of people, hardship on women, destruction of institutions and loss of physical infrastructures.

The climatic hazards in Bangladesh are extensive throughout the year. Cold wave, particularly in the north, make life miserable in late December, January and February. Flash flood comes in late April and May, while severe flood is a regular visitor in late July and August causing erosion. Drought in the west has become a hazard in May, June and early July. Cyclone and tornado affect the land mass in April, May and June while rain in August, September, October and November. The country is hardly free from natural and climate hazards for any length of time. If one adds the man-made environmental hazards to it, one may conclude that in Bangladesh climatic hazards are varied and wide. The richness of Bengal was based on nature i.e. rivers, green natural forests, water bodies, diversified flora and fauna, rich soil for agriculture, crop diversity and small enterprises in cottages. The material resources have been impacted by unfavourable, commercial, regulatory, and unhelpful legal interventions by colonial and now globalised market system. There has been loss of varieties of renewable and non-renewable resources including quality of air, water, atmosphere and landscape. The accelerating climatic change through destruction of resources has deepened the crisis of underdevelopment.

Natural disasters caused by climate change holds the households susceptible to aggravation in social and economic terms. According to a survey, 70% of households are victims of flood, often at odd times, and above the normal level, 45% are victims of cyclone, 31 % to river erosion, 22% to drought and 35% households on average lose their house, landholdings and economic resources due to natural calamity each year. Over the last years such calamities have caused migration, increased indebtedness, sale of assets, homelessness, demand on government for charitable assistance, dropout from schools, early marriage, desertion of families, increased susceptibility to human trafficking, non-availability of safe water, deforestation, disrupted communication, water logging, etc. In addition, common property resources such as water bodies, forests, grazing land, fallow land as well as social institutions like schools, mosques, medical service outlets, playgrounds, etc have been destroyed and disrupted. The economic institutions like hats and bazzars are also subjected to disruption and destruction by natural hazards which have roots in climate change. The loss of common property resources as well as infrastructure and social institutions affect the poor though their access is inequitable vis-a-vis the non-poor.

The Brundtland Commission on environment and development demonstrated how environmental degradation jeopardises the development opportunities in the developing countries by adversely affecting ecology and reducing the quality of common resources like land, air, water, forests, etc. The technologies in use in the developed countries for increasing productivity has caused rise in carbon emission and transfer of such technology through aid and investment to developing countries have intensified the climate change induced disasters.

The trade-off between development and safety from such disasters requires reexamination of lost indigenous knowledge and research for new low carbon technologies. The least developed countries are unable to undertake such research for lack of capacity and resources and often are deprived by the application of intellectual property rights. The IPR is justified by economics of investment and private property but with respect to common property we need to reconsider its application.

The call for synergy between environment and development in the interest of sustainable development which will not exhaust resources, disturb eco-system and promote intergenerational equity has become a necessity. Such sustainability has both a global dimension and specific locational dimension. Its intemperate implications can only be understood by tracing changes and their impact putting a value to environmental goods while considering developmental goals. The interconnectedness of sustainable developmental changes with respect to imputs, institutions, resources, technologies, energy with protection and augmentation of quality of environmental resources as well as human security is a dimension which has often been overlooked in the past leading to an alarming scale of environmental including climatic change related problems that we face today. The impact of intensified economic activity for growth and better standard of life is certainly disproportionately and adversely suffered by poorer countries. The late-comer advantage is not visible, rather the prescription for carbon trading has an implication of slower growth for such countries. As such climate change with attendant vulnerability is likely to threaten development investments and efforts in the least developed countries like Bangladesh.

The mitigation and adaptation approaches are complementary to each other. The adaptation in countries basically means living with climate change disasters. International cooperation on adaptation has been under-financed and there is lack of understanding about the intensity and extremity of the climate change-induced calamities in developing countries like Bangladesh. As a result, climate change apartheid in adaptation in the words of Archbishop Desmond Tutu has already emerged. Adaptation in developing least developed countries is very expensive in terms of loss suffered and opportunities lost. Desmond Tutu quite rightly has pointed out that adaptation has become another name for continued global inequity and social injustice. Even then we need to incorporate adaptation strategies in our poverty reduction and development plans. This requires to be financed by the rich countries that have benefited from a development process over centuries at the expense of the poor colonised countries of which Bangladesh is one. The winners need to compensate the long standing losers to ensure livelihood security, poverty reduction and human development. To do so we need to have proper information about climate change effects, appropriate technology and system for climate proofing risks with flood defence and drainage system, reservoirs, irrigation canals, saving rivers and canals, planning physical infrastructure to help mitigation from water logging and sea level intrusion. Sporadic work does not provide long-term solution. Bangladesh needs institutions that can locate adaptation opportunities in all related sectors and prescribe variations with variable climatic change impacts. Institution for risk management is a necessity. These need to be supplemented by insurance and assistance programmes for social protection including livelihood and human development.

As the historic responsibility for climate change calamities lies with the developed countries but these countries have failed to deliver their past commitments. It must be recalled that current adaptation financing is too little; much too fragmented and it is certainly too late. The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), funded through GEF's LDC fund is inadequate due to underestimation of adaptation cost, segmented by nonholistic project approach and weak links to security concerns including human development. The financing for adaptation must be seen as a response to increased financing needs caused by increased climate change induced disasters and not as a substitution for aid for development if we want to mean business with respect to MDGs and PRSP goals. We need to remember that vulnerabilities that are associated with climate change induced disaster cannot be dealt with micro level project-based initiatives that goes with NGO and short-term GO intervention. The adaptation strategy has to be multi-sectoral, multi-faceted and multi-dimensional. Financing strategy has to be innovative and responsive to long-term holistic needs of developing countries. Carbon trading, as perceived as a market solution, is a case which Lord Stern has termed as the most despicable market failure involving the most important common property good. It tendes to forget the long term destitution. We require levies on the big polluters, the developed countries and an agreement in this respect is needed urgently. But no formula for financing that will benefit the most threatened countries like Bangladesh. On the other hand, such measures will neither be just nor equitable. How do we estimate the extent of depression in production possibility curve over centuries? How do we know the shape and location of community indifference curve involving a normal good and a disutility good with inequitable income and opportunity distribution? These complicate the principle of compensation and therefore we set our proposal for compensation on the basis of available current information which is distortive and unjust in nature.

Approaches to mitigation will determine how successful the global community can face long-term global challenge justly. We cannot afford any delay. Mitigation would take time to be effective. The basic approach requires that we shift globally to a low- carbon technology. Such carbon emission targeting will need national level budgeting. The developed countries have accepted the need for urgent and concentrated action. But carbon budgeting suffers from problems of benchmarking resulting in under ambition, use of inaccurate indicators, inadequate sectional coverage and insufficient urgency. Because of these, there has been a limited progress in aligning climate security goals with energy and development policies. This is so because the costs of carbon emission are uncertain. They are spread over the countries as a common good, most of whom have no voice or capacity to require a global agreement. The international cooperation to finance technology transfer is absent or weak. The UN FCC provides a platform for addressing global cooperation under UN leadership.

To conclude, Bangladesh already suffers from different types of climate related disorder. The government of Bangladesh with the help of development partners has invested over $ 10 billion in different projects to make Bangladesh invulnerable to climate change induced natural disorder. The climate change action plan must be based on comprehensive disaster management systems and approaches involving various sectors, proper planning, implementation and maintenance of physical and social infrastructure, intensification and extension of research knowledge for informed planning against climate change disasters, adoption of low carbon technology and check on environmental degradation, strengthening development to reduce poverty and improve social indicators, ensure human security including income security, food security, health security, energy security, livelihood security on a rights-based approach and finally, building of institutions to ensure the above.

The incorporation of the strategy as mentioned above would require much larger development budget as well as improvement of quality of public, private and NGO sector expenditures. This requires a heightened political will, improved negotiating skill, integration of homegrown need-based concerns and knowledge, participatory decision making at various levels and sectors as well as continuous research and better inter-sectoral coordination. Given that the government of Bangladesh is able to ensure these, the international community must make commitments to ensure that threatened security risk is mitigated through their cooperation in this regard.

We need speed but speed is only relevant if we are doing the right thing in right direction at right time. It must be realised that if the large section of mankind is to sustain and benefit from the explosion of knowledge then the thinking with respect to survival and progress requires reassessment of our past. If we do too little and too late, mankind will be at risk. Bangladesh needs a robust programme in this regard supported by the international community. The reasons are obvious. First, Bangladesh is one of the least polluter countries. Second, Bangladesh has suffered over many decades from climate change induced disasters. Third, Bangladesh is most vulnerable to the predicted climate change- including sea level rise. Fourth, the developed countries will take time to make technological change to reduce carbon emission significantly and thus climate change will continue to impact on late- comer developing countries, particularly those which are over populated, have low elevation being a flood plain country and which cannot mobilise resources for adaptation and mitigation putting at risk the attainment of MDG goals.

Bangladesh is thus a test case for initiating action programmes for developing and implementing a development planning process that incorporates climate change as a variable and that requires to negate impacts that come as externalities created by activities in developed countries.

(Professor Muzaffer Ahmed was a faculty member of the Department of Economics, Dhaka University and is at present the chairman of Transparency International, Bangladesh)