The New Nation - Internet Edition

Issue of climate mitigation options

Battlelines are drawn over CCS, or Carbon Capture and Storage Developed nations want it to be included as a mitigation technology under the Clean Development Mechanism Developing world opposes. Says technology still undeveloped and inadequately tested.

Over the days of intense negotiations at the 14th Conference of Parties (CoP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) has emerged as one of the most controversial issues being discussed. CCS entails capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from coal and other fossil fuel-based power plants and industrial plants and storing it permanently in geological formations underground.

"The division lines are clear," said Sunita Narain, director, Centre for Science and Environment (CSE); Narain is leading a team from CSE at the meet. Developed countries including Norway, the members of the European Union (EU), Australia and Japan, with strong support from Saudi Arabia, are pushing for CCS to be included as technology under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

Developing countries led by Brazil, Venezuela and Jamaica are vehemently protesting against inclusion of a nascent and yet to be fully developed technology under the trading mechanism. At heart are issues like technology and liability, and legal, ethical, financial and methodological aspects.

Owing to strong protests from these countries, the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) "did not agree to adopt" the inclusion of CCS under CDM and "therefore could not conclude its consideration of this issue", reports the CSE team.

CCS not suitably developed yet, say developing nations. In a very strongly worded submission to the SBSTA, Brazil has said: "The appeal of large quantities of cheap credits for Annex 1 parties (developed countries who have to make mandatory cuts under the Kyoto Protocol) should not hide the bad consequences of taking CCS under the CDM… It would destabilise the carbon market, would be a perverse incentive to developing countries, would prevent small- scale projects and would prevent further equitable participation. Finally, it would divert the central idea of the CDM, which is to promote long-term benefits in the direction of low-carbon economy, towards creating subsidies to enhance fossil fuel production."

Developing countries are particularly sensitive about the developed world pushing a developing and yet to be fully understood technology on them. Almost all of them have asked developed countries to first develop and implement the technology within their boundaries and prove it to be successful, before it can be considered under the trading mechanism. Asked Venezuela: "Why don't the countries who are defending this technology, implement CO2 storage in their own territories if they claim it to be so safe?"

An imperfect innovation? "Questions have been raised over CCS as a technology being safe and secure and whether it can be considered as a long-term mitigation option," points out Narain. To be more specific, there is insufficient experience with CO2

reservoir operation, and there remains a potential risk of a catastrophic event resulting in run-away climate change. Also, CCS as a CDM project activity will adversely affect the carbon market and take away funds from cleaner technologies like renewables, feel experts.

Adds Chandra Bhushan, associate director, CSE and one of the members of the team at Poznan: "Experience with the operation of such a large CO2 reservoir is insufficient to decide on the risk of seepage over a long period of time and over a wider area. But perhaps the most controversial aspects of CCS are the liability and environmental impacts."

In fact, the SBSTA document compiling the views of parties and organisations reports that "in considering the environmental impacts of CO2 storage, an organisation suggested that CCS would result in further environmental impacts of mining activities because of a 30 per cent increase in energy demand by coal-fired power plants employing CCS."

Project proponents, however, contend that CCS is a proven technology with several decades of experience in capture, transport, storage and monitoring of CO2 already accumulated in the oil and gas industry in Canada, Norway and the US. They say it is one of the most promising technologies to reduce emissions from production and use of fossil fuels and can complement other climate change mitigation actions during the transition to a low-carbon economy.

Liability is a controversial topic as well: the project proponent liability in the current scenario is limited to 21 or 60 years, the longest period CDM is currently dealing with. Since it is impossible for the project proponents to be responsible beyond this time-frame, it has been proposed that long-term liability be transferred to the project host country (the developing countries where such projects come up).

But as Brazil contended, "Transferring responsibility means transferring monitoring procedures, costs and remediation measures in the case of unexpected CO2 escaping back to the atmosphere or to saline waters. Besides all the risks in terms of environmental impacts and public health, it is not possible to estimate those costs and to calculate a present value to internalise those costs in the project activity." Brazil added that transferring liability and costs in such a manner "is unacceptable for it means that private profit in the short term will be supported by public loss in the long term".

(CSE press release, New Delhi India)

New race to explore the Himalayas

Navin Singh Khadka

Himalayan peaks such as Mount Machhapuchre are feeling climate impacts. The Hindu-Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region in South Asia has remained a nagging gap in the global climate change knowledge bank.

In the absence of field studies and adequate data, the impact of global warming in the area stretching from Afghanistan in the west to Burma in the east is largely unknown.

In effect, there has been virtually no climate change adaptation plan for the zone, which is ecologically hypersensitive, yet a vital natural service provider.

Millions of people in the region, most of them poor ones who would be hardest hit by climate change, rely on these natural systems including river waters and forests.

But if what experts and government officials from the region and international organisations have recently agreed on is translated into action, the crippling information gap could become a matter of the past.

The temperature is risingt and that means species are shifting northwards. This is quite alarming

Eklabya Sharma,

International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

They have come up with a plan to first gather key information on the impacts of climate change in the region, and then chalk out responses.

"At present the lack of basic environmental data for the Himalayan region is so serious that the IPCC, the world's apex body on climate change, says that the region is a white spot for data," say officials with the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).

ICIMOD is a Kathmandu-based international organisation that together with UNESCO recently organised a meeting for the initiative.

"The meeting discussed ways of systematically gathering and sharing the information needed, developing a reliable picture of the present situation, and formulating approaches to respond," they say.

The regional initiative is in line with UNESCO's strategy for co-ordinated research on global change in mountain biosphere reserves around the world.

Alarming signs

Seven landscapes have been identified in the HKH region for the studies, and they are transboundary areas between eight countries - with Burma the farthest east, and Kyrgyzstan at the western end.

"It will be a comprehensive study of all ecological aspects," says Eklabya Sharma, environmental programme manager with ICIMOD.

"Before, such studies have happened here and there, but this time we are adopting a transect approach, which means it will cover latitudinal (from east to west) and altitudinal (high altitude) locations.

Lakes are still used as playgrounds when frozen

"The idea is to encourage everyone from big global programmes to individual researchers to focus their efforts in these sites, under a co-ordinated arrangement that helps make all the information available for everyone."

Although scientists will have cryosphere issues, Ramsar sites, biodiversity hotpots and endemic species on their radars, they will be zooming in on high altitudes that are already bearing the brunt of climate change in the region.

"This is where we have found the temperature rising between 0.1C to 0.4C in a year, and that means species are shifting northwards at the rate of 80 to 200 metres in 10 years," says Mr Sharma.

"This is quite alarming."

That is one of the reasons why, immediately after the meeting, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and ICIMOD launched a study in the trans-Himalayan Kailash sacred landscape area, criss-crossing Nepal and Chinese-controlled Tibet.

The two organisations together issued a warning in 2002 that 20 glacial lakes in Nepal and 24 in Bhutan were rapidly filling up, due to global warming-induced fast glacier melting, and that they could burst anytime.

The report was based on satellite images, but there have been no follow-up studies, even though glaciologists have called for urgent further investigation.

Out of balance

There are 3,300 glaciers in the Nepalese Himalayas and 2,300 of them contain glacial lakes that are quietly growing because of rising temperatures. But a sufficiently close eye is not being kept on them, campaigners say.

Fast-melting Himalayan glaciers often find a place in climate change reports, papers and discussions.

But how fast are they melting? And with what consequences for Himalayan ecology and the enormous human population depending on it?

The lack of basic environmental data for the Himalayan region is so serious that the IPCC says the region is a white spot for data

ICIMOD

These are questions awaiting long overdue field studies.

"We need to get the data to fill in the gap the IPCC report has," says Gregory Greenwood, of the Mountain Research Initiative, who also participated in the meeting aimed at launching co-ordinated studies in the HKH region.

"Records of directly measured glacier mass balances are few and stretch back only to the mid-20th Century," reads one of the latest IPCC reports.

"Because of the very intensive fieldwork required, these records are biased towards logistically and morphologically 'easy' glaciers.

"An effective strategy for advancing the understanding of adverse impacts of climate change in Asia will require strengthening the academic and research institutions.

"It will be necessary to conduct innovative research on the response of human and natural systems to multiple stresses at various levels and scales," the report says.

That goal could perhaps be met to some extent if the latest bid for launching detailed field studies in the HKH region works.

Money talks

But those who have been in the climate business for years now say it is largely a money matter.

"The need for such studies is a compelling story, but true success will be getting the funding," says Mr Greenwood.

"Organisations that have been advocating such studies will have to keep beating the drum."

Then there are the ultra-sensitive geopolitical issues that have seen countries in the region not sharing information on aspects such as water resources.

But on a positive note, key regional players have of late hinted that they may co-operate in the fight against climate change.

In a recently released white paper on climate change, China has committed itself to international co-operation.

"In recent years, China's president and premier have both stated China's position on international co-operation on climate change at multilateral and bilateral exchanges, energetically promoting global action to cope with climate change," read the document.

Another major player in the region, India, has stressed a regional approach in the climate change action plan it launched earlier this year.

"That has been quite encouraging for us as most of the studies will have to be transboundary, and that will mean co-operation on the part of the countries in the region," says Mr Sharma.

If the co-operation is there and of course, the money, the HKH region will perhaps no more remain a hole in the climate change information repository.

Himalayan peoples depend directly on the region's ecological health

(Source: BBC World Service. )

Renewable energy: Time is running out

The potential is huge. Never mind that much of rural Philippines is currently lighted by kerosene lanterns and cooking is made on inefficient, smoky stoves that are damaging to health.

Renewable energy, combined with the smart use of energy, can deliver over 60 percent of the Philippines energy needs by 2050.

And it can stabilize the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and greenhouse gases that cause global warming. All that is missing is the right policy support.

The Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment (Institute of Technical Thermodynamics) at the German Aerospace Center (DLR), Greenpeace, the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) and experts from the National Engineering Center of the University of the Philippines, have produced an energy scenario for the Philippines as a practical blueprint on how to urgently meet carbon dioxide reduction targets and secure affordable energy supply.

The conclusion: renewable energy could provide as much as 57 percent of the Philippines' energy needs by 2030, given the political will to promote its large scale deployment.

And by choosing renewable energy and energy efficiency, the Philippines can stabilize its carbon dioxide emissions, while at the same time achieving economic growth.

A crucial prerequisite for achieving a significant share of renewable energy is to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels.

Today, more than half (about 55 percent) of the country's primary energy supply comes from fossil fuels.

Renewable energy sources are fast closing in, accounting for 44 percent of the primary energy demand.

Biomass, used almost entirely for cooking, as well as geothermal and hydro power, both mainly used for electricity production, are the currently used renewable energy sources.

The share of renewable energy in electricity generation is 32 percent. The contribution of renewables to primary energy demand for cooking is around 68 percent.

The electricity sector will have the strongest growth in renewable energy utilization. By 2050, more than 70 percent of electricity will be produced from renewable energy sources.

In the transport sector biofuels are currently the only available technology, which could provide a major share of renewable energy.

By 2050 over 60 percent of primary energy demand will be covered by renewable energy sources.

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the Philippines up to 2050 will remain roughly the same, peaking in 2020 and increasing from 75 million tons in 2005 to 81 million tons in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will remain at around 1 ton.

In spite of the increased use of gas power plants and rising electricity demand, carbon dioxide emissions will decrease in the electricity sector.

While the power sector today is among the largest sources of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the Philippines, it will contribute about 25 percent of the total in 2050.

Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewable energy resources will reduce the long-term costs for electricity supply by nearly 40 percent.

The expert consensus is that this fundamental change must begin very soon and be well underway within the next 10 years in order to avert the worst impacts.

We do not need nuclear po-wer. What we do need is a complete transformation in the way we produce, consume and distribute energy.

Nothing short of such a revolution will enable us to limit global warming to less than two degree Celsius, above which the impacts become devastating.

Time is running out.

An overwhelming consensus of scientific opinion now agrees that climate change is happening, is caused largely by human activities (such as burning fossil fuels), and if left unchecked, will have disastrous consequences.

There is solid scientific evidence that we should act now. This is reflected in the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a UN institution of more than 1,000 scientists providing advice to policy makers.

The Kyoto Protocol has committed its signatories to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2 percent from their 1990 level by the target period of 2008 to 2012. The Philippines signed the Protocol in October 2003.

The Kyoto signatories are currently negotiating the second phase of the agreement, covering the period from 2013 to 2017.

Within this timeframe, industrialized countries need to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions by 18 percent from 1990 levels and then by 30 percent between 2018 and 2022.

Only with these cuts do we stand a reasonable chance of keeping the average increase in global temperatures to less than two degree Celsius, beyond which the effects of climate change will become catastrophic.

Greenpeace Southeast Asia