The New Nation - Internet Edition

HSPA technologically more sound

A new report from Arthur D. Little - 'HSPA and mobile WiMAX for mobile broadband' - examines the roles of HSPA and WiMAX and brings clarity to decision makers. The following is an overview of the report's key findings, operators, regulators and vendors are developing their plans for mobile broadband access based on an incomplete picture of the technology choices available. In particular, the relative advantages and disadvantages of choosing HSPA vs. mobile wiMAx remain unresolved. To help decision makers, Arthur D. Little conducted a qualitative research project amongst 31 HSPA and wiMAx equipment vendors, operators running the networks, government regulators and financial investors around the world.

The findings can be summarized as follows:

HSPA will account for the majority of mobile broadband networks worldwide over the next five years;

Mobile wiMAx is a competitive technology for selection by operators over this period in only a limited number of circumstances where conditions are favourable; There are 94 commercial HSDPA networks in operation today, while the first commercial mobile wiMAx networks are expected to enter service towards the end of 200712; In the long-term, mobile broadband wireless systems will be characterized by technologies such as FDMA and MIM, whose development is being actively pursued throughout the industry while future mobile wiMAx systems could potentially achieve data transfer rates of 16.8 Mbps in urban areas, mobile wiMAx cells will tend to be significantly smaller than HSPA cells, at only half to a quarter the cell radius of the equivalent HSPA cell. HSPA bandwidth falls away slowly, which allows for larger cells. Typically, the radius of HSPA cells is 2-4 times larger than wiMAx, which means the cells range across an area 4-16 times greater; this gives HSPA a significant mobility advantage.

Initial indications are that capex for current wiMAx technology can be up to 5- 10 times HSDPA capex on a like-forlike basis.

A powerful momentum behind HSPA over the next five years many factors will lead operators to deploy more HSDPA networks than wiMAx. Since 2005 more operators have either deployed or plan to deploy HSDPA ahead of wiMAx. HSDPA has gained a significant time-to-market advantage. with a large HSDPA base established, economies of scale have come into force, particularly on handsets and other user devices.

A growing network of global suppliers of components, subsystems, equipment and network design and implementation services now support the HSDPA base.

HSDPA (and upgrades) form a natural migration path for the many GSM and uMTS operators who already operate commercial networks in 3G spectrum. For most operators HSDPA offers the least risky route to offering mobile broadband services, with speeds comparable with first generation DSL access services.

Today's powerful Internet-based interests (Google, yahoo! and MSN) create demand for mobile broadband access, with operators coming under pressure to deploy available infrastructure and handsets capable of achieving similar speeds to those users experience with broadband at home wiMAx lags behind HSPA but has supporters over the past year wiMAx has made significant progress in building a comprehensive "ecosystem" of supply, albeit one which has not yet established the depth and breadth of the HSDPA equivalent.

A major factor which operators considering mobile wiMAx will have to take into account is the cost of wiMAx user terminals in certain markets. because of low wiMAx volumes and the limited choice of devices, the prices of wiMAx handsets will remain significantly higher than those of other, much higher volume, cellular terminals, which are being developed and offered in increasingly lower cost versions.

In fact, wiMAx is in the difficult position of having to prove its business case in advance of proven performance.

This is due to two key factors:

Attractively priced notebooks and PDAs with wiMAx-embedded capability, coupled with acceptable power consumption, will not appear in quantity until 2008, with handsets arriving in 2009 or later wiMAx lacks the economies of scale that benefits HSPA.

In addition, operators will have to note the cost of wiMAx handsets in price-conscious, emerging or developing economies where no significant voice revenue exists for them. That said, a small number of operators will choose wiMAx in certain situations where:

The operator does not have access to 3G spectrum but does have spectrum at other frequencies such as 3.5, 2.3 GHz The fixed operator wishes to deploy broadband to areas where wired alternatives, such as DSL, are neither available nor economic to deploy.

The operator wishes to enlarge their 'hotspot' broadband In this last example, the capex costs deter the operator from offering national or wide area coverage.

Mobile phones distract most drivers

Reuters, Washington

Mobile phone calls distract drivers far more than even the chattiest passenger, causing drivers to follow too closely and miss exits, US researchers reported on Monday.

Using a hands-free device does not make things better and the researchers believe they know why-passengers act as a second set of eyes, shutting up or sometimes even helping when they see the driver needs to make a maneuver.

The research, published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, adds to a growing body of evidence that mobile phones can make driving dangerous.

Lee Strayer of the University of Utah and colleagues have found in a series of experiments using driving simulators that hands-free mobile phones are just as distracting as handheld models.

They have demonstrated that chatting on a cell phone can slow the reaction times of young adult drivers to levels seen among senior citizens, and shown that drivers using mobile telephones are as impaired as drivers who are legally drunk.

For the latest study, also using a simulator, Strayer's team showed that drivers using a hands-free device drifted out of their lanes and missed exits more frequently than drivers talking to a passenger. They tested 96 adults aged 18 to 49.

"The passenger adds a second set of eyes, and helps the driver navigate and reminds them where to go," Strayer said in a statement.

"When you take a look at the data, it turns out that a driver conversing with a passenger is not as impaired a driver talking on a cell phone," he added.

Passengers also simplify conversation when driving conditions change, the researchers wrote.

"The difference between a cell phone conversation and passenger conversation is due to the fact that the passenger is in the vehicle and knows what the traffic conditions are like, and they help the driver by reminding them of where to take an exit and pointing out hazards," Strayer said.

Strayer's team has videos showing drivers missing exits while on mobile phone headsets and showing that passengers interrupt conversations to help drivers exit correctly at www.psych.utah.edu/~strayer/cellphone.wmv and www.psych.utah.edu/~strayer/passenger.wmv .

Sony PS3 3-to-1 on Black Friday

Microsoft announces that the Xbox 360 set new records in sales on Black Friday. Apparently the Xbox 360 outsold the Sony PS3 3-to-1 and Microsoft sold 25% more Xbox 360 consoles compared to Black Friday 2007.

The Xbox 360 has now an install base of 25 million and an online community of more than 14 million Xbox LIVE members. In Europe Xbox 360 console sales in Europe are up as much as 400%, with sales nearly double year over year and reaching 7 million consoles sold this generation.

I already predicted a very strong holiday sales season for the Xbox 360 as the combination of low prices, the new NXE and Netflix support are making the Xbox 360 a very hot console buy compared to the others. You just get a lot for your money.

The Sony PS3 is still behind on its promises and without price breaks it is a hard sell. If Playstation Home would have launched already things might look different, but Sony still did not roll it out. Blu-ray is still not adopting fast enough to be a sales driver for the PS3.

There are still great Xbox 360 Bundle deals available even after Black Friday and Cyber Monday are over.

Check out for instance this $269 Xbox 360 Bundle with Guitar Hero on Walmart.