The New Nation - Internet Edition

Climate change gathers steam

Earth's climate appears to be changing more quickly and deeply than a benchmark UN report for policymakers predicted, top scientists said ahead of international climate talks starting Monday in Poland.

Evidence published since the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's (IPCC) February 2007 report suggests that future global warming may be driven not just by things over which humans have a degree of control, such as burning fossil fuels or destroying forest, a half-dozen climate experts told AFP.

Even without additional drivers, the IPCC has warned that current rates of greenhouse gas emissions, if unchecked, would unleash devastating droughts, floods and huge increases in human misery by century's end.

But the new studies, they say, indicate that human activity may be triggering powerful natural forces that would be nearly impossible to reverse and that could push temperatures up even further.

At the top of the list for virtually all of the scientists canvassed was the rapid melting of the Arctic ice cap.

"In the last couple of years, Arctic Sea ice is at an all-time low in summer, which has got a lot of people very, very concerned," commented Robert Watson, Chief Scientific Advisor for Britain's department for environmental affairs and chairman of the IPCC's previous assessment in 2001.

"This has implication's for Earth's climate because it can clearly lead to a positive feedback effect," he said in an interview.

When the reflective ice surface retreats, the Sun's radiation -- heat -- is absorbed by open water rather than bounced back into the atmosphere, creating a vicious circle of heating.

"We had always known that the Arctic was going to respond first," said Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado. "What has us puzzled is that the changes are even faster than we would have thought possible," he said by phone.

New data on the rate at which oceans might rise has also caused consternation. "The most recent IPCC report was prior to t the measurements of increasing mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica, which are disintegrating much faster than IPCC estimates," said climatologist James Hansen, head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

Unlike the Arctic ice cap, which floats on water, the world's two major ice sheets -- up to three kilometers (two miles) thick -- sit on land.

Runaway sea level rises, Hansen said, would put huge coastal cities and agricultural deltas in Bangladesh, Egypt and southern China under water, and create hundreds of millions of refugees.

The IPCC's most recent assessment "did not take into account the potential melting of Greenland, which I think was a mistake," said Watson, the former IPCC chairman.

Were Greenland's entire ice block to melt, it would lift the world's sea levels by almost seven meters (22.75 feet), while western Antarctica's ice sheet holds enough water to add six metres (20 feet).

Neither of these doomsday scenarios is on the foreseeable horizon.

But for coastal dwellers, even a relatively small loss of their ice could prove devastating.

IPCC estimates of an 18-to-59 centimetre (7.2-to-23.2 inches) rise by 2100 has been supplanted among specialists by an informal consensus of one metre (39 inches), said Serreze.

The accelerating concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and signs of the planet's dwindling ability to absorb them, are also causing some scientists to lose sleep.

During the 1970s, there were on average 1.3 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide -- the main greenhouse gas -- in the air. In the 1980s the figure was 1.6 ppm, and in the 1990s 1.5 ppm.

In the period 2000-2007, however, the concentration jumped to an average 2.0 ppm, with a high of 2.2 last year, according to the Global Carbon Project, based in Australia.

"The present concentration is the highest during the last 650,000 years and probably during the last 20 million years," said the Global Carbon Project's Pep Canadell, a researcher at Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation.

And in 2008, he said, there has been an "exponential growth" in the atmospheric concentration of methane, another greenhouse gas that is an even more potent driver of global warming than CO2.

One potential source of both gases is frozen tundra in the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions, where temperatures have risen faster than anywhere else on Earth.

"The amount of carbon that is locked up in permafrost that could be released into the atmosphere is just about on a par with the atmospheric load the world has right now," said Serreze.

These higher concentrations of greenhouse gases come at a time when Earth's two major "carbon sinks" -- forests and especially oceans -- are showing signs of saturation.

The December 1-12 forum of 192-member UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) comes midway through a two-year process launched in Bali for braking the juggernaut of global warming.

Scheduled to run until December 12, the talks are a stepping stone towards a new pact -- due to be sealed in Copenhagen in December 2009 -- for reducing emissions and boosting adaptation funds beyond 2012, when the current provisions of the UN's Kyoto Protocol expire.

Source: AFP

Key to tackling global food crisis

Even as national governments make strong efforts to fight off bankruptcy for their financial institutions, the lands that support their farmers and ensure food security for their populations are facing ever-increasing threats of degradation. According to Dr William Dar, Director General of the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) and the Chair of the Committee on Science and Technology of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), the business as usual cannot continue when it comes to dealing with land degradation.

"The health of our lands is the basis of our food chain and our climate, and of the livelihoods of our poorest peoples. Without healthy lands, people cannot thrive. Without a healthy atmosphere, land and biological systems cannot be sustained. Science tells us that the dynamics of land, climate and biodiversity are intimately connected. And we know that the lives of the poor hang in the balance, because they depend directly on these ecosystem services," Dr Dar stated.

Dr Dar said that positive impacts on combating land degradation can come only with the application of good science. "We live on a precious planet that hosts abundant, diverse and intelligent life that is unique in the universe. If we fail to combat land degradation and desertification, the consequences can be disastrous. We must use science to become better stewards of our precious inheritance."

The world is seeing a food, energy, climate and credit crisis, each having repercussions on every sphere of human activity. Land degradation will add to the adverse impact of each of these problems.

According to the 2008 Global Hunger Index, 33 countries are showing alarming levels of hunger. Though the right to food is a basic human right, there are close to a billion people who suffer from chronic hunger. The FAO's 2006 State of Food Insecurity Report cites agricultural growth as being critical for reducing hunger.

Failing to take measures to address desertification, land degradation and drought threats to sustainable land management will have a severe impact on food and water security, Dr Dar said. The UNCCD mechanism provides the platform for bringing together policy makers and global scientific institutions to combat land degradation and desertification.

The Committee on Science and Technology (CST) of UNCCD is collaborating with five international research bodies, including ICRISAT, to bring together the best of research on bio-physical and socio-economic monitoring and assessment of desertification and land degradation, to support decision-making in land and water management. The CST will take the lead in generating a baseline based on the most robust data available on biophysical and socio-economic trends and gradually harmonizing relevant scientific approaches in affected areas to enable better decision-making.

It will also improve knowledge of the interactions between climate change adaptation, drought mitigation and restoration of degraded land in affected areas, which will enable development of tools to assist decision-making and put in place effective knowledge-sharing systems at the global, regional, sub-regional and national levels. Eventually this will support policymakers and end users, and engage science and technology networks and institutions to support UNCCD implementation.

As an advanced international agricultural research institute working in the semi-arid tropics, which is the frontier for preventing land degradation and desertification, ICRISAT and partners are spearheading many initiatives. These are in synergy with the strategy of UNCCD, and include:

* Implementation of the ICRISAT-developed a "microdosing" technique in semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa, which involves the application of small, affordable quantities of fertilizer with the seed at planting time or as a top dressing 3 or 4 weeks after emergence. This enhances fertilizer use efficiency and improves productivity.

* The Bioreclamation of Degraded Lands (BDL) project in barren, unproductive soils that are widespread in the West African Sahel. This combines simple effective techniques such as zaï holes, Conservation Agriculture, planting-basin cultivation, trenches and land scarification that concentrate limited water and nutrient resources close to the plant roots, reduces erosion and prevents water loss.

* Planting of high-value crops that restore organic matter and soil texture earn a handsome profit for the poor from fruit and gum trees, hardy leafy vegetables and legumes in the Sahel.

* In Asia, ICRISAT has partnered with other organizations and has evolved a new consortium watershed management model based on a holistic systems approach called the Integrated Genetic and Natural Resource Management (IGNRM) strategy.

Dr Dar concluded that with sound science backstopping strong policy the battle against land degradation and desertification can be won to prevent bankruptcy of soil, one of the greatest assets of all economies.

(Source: International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)

Tiger reintroduction in Rajasthan forests

V D Sharma

After a gap of about four years, tigers are back in Sariska. Two tigers-a male and a female-were airlifted from Ranthambhore. Three more tigers are supposed to join them shortly. This is the first time that a big cat species has been relocated in independent India. Rajasthan's forest department, the government of India and the Wildlife Institute are involved in the project. Reintroduction of tigers in Sariska is important, because if successful this could provide a great tool in intensive genetic management of small isolated populations of tigers.

Over the last few decades, dense human settlements and cultivated fields have surrounded most of the tiger reserves in the country. Tiger reserves are cut-off from each other.

The corridors for movements of these big cats have been totally erased. The small tiger populations of these tiger reserves are likely to face genetic isolation, and consequent in-breeding.

This is a known cause of serious physical abnormalities among the offsprings of large cats. The males may have very poor sperm quality and females may have reduced fertility.

It is feared that because of absence of corridors, tiger populations in many tiger reserves in India, including Ranthambhore Tiger Reserve, could already be facing this malaise.

There is no other tiger population in any area near Ranthambhore. Tigers have disappeared from adjoining wildlife sanctuaries of Kailadevi (Karauli) Ramgarh (Bundi), Durrah (Kota) and Bhainsrorgarh (Chittorgarh). There is no chance of tigers coming to Ranthambhore from any of the tiger areas in Madhya Pradesh.

The tiger population of Ranthambhore is small. In 1973, at the time of launch of Tiger Project, as per official records of the forest department, there were only 13 tigers in Ranthambhore. During last 35 years this number has swelled and shrunk at times. The present population of tigers in Ranthambhore are all descendents of this small original population of 13 tigers. So the possibilities of in-breeding cannot be ruled out-though this requires further study.

The local gene pool of tigers in Sariska vanished without any genetic study. Now new gene pool is to be introduced in this tiger habitat.

This can be manipulated and managed in the interests of the animal. But it seems that this important aspect is being neglected. It appears from newspaper reports that there is a plan to reintroduce about 3 to 5 tigers in Sariska from Ranthambhore. If this is correct, it certainly is not a sound proposal.

So far there is no mention of relocation of tigers from any other reserve. Will Sariska just bean extension of the Ranthambhore tiger population?

By introducing a very small number of tigers from Ranthambhore alone are we not further aggravating the risk of inbreeding of over stressed population of tigers of Ranthambhore? Is it not possible to get suitable young tigers from other tiger reserves of the country in a National Project?

Reintroduction of large cats needs advance planning and years of field studies and continuous long term monitoring. Each individual animal to be translocated is to be first identified, then physically and medically examined.

Its behaviour needs to be studied over years before reintroduction in a new reserve. This is obviously not being done in Sariska. People in position in wildlife management are probably in a hurry to earn publicity.

The tigress captured from Ranthambhore a few days ago was not even radio collared earlier-forget about being observed or studied. It was captured just because it happened to come across the way of the VIPs looking for a tiger in Ranthambhore.

No one can say whether it was a pregnant tigress or if it was rearing cubs? In both cases the survival of cubs is jeopardized.

The season of release of animals is also important. Why was monsoon selected? If somehow the radio collars stop functioning how will the tigers be tracked? During monsoon, the forest foliage in Sariska is thick and ground cover lush with tall grasses. Sighting tigers is difficult. Even pugmarks are hard to determine.

The ground preparations before the tiger reintroduction are not known. Was there any logic in releasing the male before releasing the tigress? It is known that females have smaller territories.

So the male tiger could have been released after settling the tigresses, averting the present situation: it is reported that the tiger has strayed far away. When future of tiger conservation is involved, such negligence is unpardonable.

(CSE/Down To Earth Feature Service. The writer is a former principal chief conservator of forests, Rajasthan)