The New Nation - Internet Edition

Dr. M. S. Haq

Predictions about things are not realities unless turns of events and other developments in pertinent areas are successful in converting those predictions into realities - relative to time, space and other variables, though. The World Bank (the WB or WB or the bank) reportedly predicted on 27th day of November 2008: a shockwave of global meltdown might hit Bangladesh in 03 months. The Bank - based on its calculations, estimations, assumptions, approximations and other things - projected that the country's GDP growth in the current fiscal year might come down to 4.8 percent from the planned figure - - that is, 6.5 percent for the year mentioned.

One of the motives of WB behind sharing - at this point in time, the GDP related projection with people of Bangladesh and others, in particular the next government, at present, in a virtual sense, though - is not only to alert in advance Bangladeshis and others regarding possible impacts of the global recession on the economy of Bangladesh but to assist them, in a proactive, reactive and result-oriented manner, in meeting challenges and harnessing opportunities that might arise out of for example, the scenario predicted by it, I mean the bank.

The army supported government rejected the above projection on a number of grounds such as: one, the present day macro-economic health of the country; and two, the estimated tensile strength (used in an engineering sense) of economy to withstand the thrust of global meltdown during the remaining period of fiscal year. It may be fine in certain ways. But one of the questions here - is: why is Bangladesh apparently afraid of considering the bank's analysis and prediction as additional resources (used in a wider sense) in pursuits of developing somewhat pessimistic (against the backdrop of say, present day favorable situation!) but possible scenarios in the midst of existing optimistic scenarios in relevant areas?

I believe the bank's projection should not be rejected outright on account of number of reasons. A few of them have been presented below.

1. The limitations associated with knowledge, understanding and application - in areas say, capturing at least a 100 percent short term future at any time - have been hindering efforts of world people and world governments including other institutions towards meeting challenges of survival, continuity and progress in the universe and towards harnessing relevant opportunities, all in a more effective and efficient manner than that at present. Further, the inability, so far, on the part of economics - to put a prominent scientific face on it - has inter alia been instrumental in 'forcing' people, governments and others to continue their dependence, at the going rate, on the development and the use of economic scenarios as inter alia tools for: exploring, identifying and understanding critical paths to say, economic goals; and for creating course correction opportunities in the course of achieving those goals in the best possible manner, at the best possible cost and to the satisfaction of all concerned - as far as practicable.

The bottom line is: Bangladesh should consider the WB projection as building blocks (for example) for probable alternative scenarios in pertinent areas - simply because the army-supported government is not - at this point in time - in a position to offer a 100 percent guarantee to people of Bangladesh and others on the outcome of its GDP related stances.

2. The time of announcement of WB prediction, the reported content of WB prediction and the base period of WB prediction are inter alia and as appropriate found to be: relevant; proper; and critical to the health of country's economy in the near future. A few examples in that respect have been presented below.

(a) the bank has attempted to fulfill, in a timely manner, its accountability to people of Bangladesh (including inter alia politicians) and others by sharing with them the bank's concern, as well as prediction about the country's economy in the near future - against the backdrop of say, the global recession;

(b) the base period of WB prediction could witness the departure of army-supported government and the arrival of people-elected government - provided that the transfer of power takes place within that period. A crucial period for Bangladesh economy to catch viral infections;

(c) the WB prediction is supposedly equipped with say, stabilization measures for meeting instabilities during the base period that could see the change of government, as mentioned above;

(d) the base period could see the impact of recession on Bangladesh in a clearer manner than that at present - positive or negative or otherwise. A windfall from the development could help make decision-making in pertinent areas timely and easier than that at present; and

(e) the prediction could, as appropriate, be instrumental in shaping the country's contingency plan - in pertinent areas - during the base period.

3. The prediction could act, in certain ways, as an antidote to credit and blame games during the initial period of elected government, if that comes into force during the base period, for example.

4. The prediction could be used in the assessment of risks and vulnerabilities associated with GDP related stances of the army-supported government.

5. The achievement of economic outcome by Bangladesh as per its prediction - after say, the expiry of fiscal year could, in pertinent areas, improve further - than that at present - the credibility of Bangladesh, army-supported government of Bangladesh and concerned others before other world countries and donor organizations including inter alia the WB. A windfall from the development could help create additional opportunities for Bangladesh in areas say, economic diplomacy. On the other hand, the credibility of WB could, in pertinent areas, improve further - than that at present - in the event of WB prediction becomes a reality after say, the expiry of fiscal year.

It will not be out of place to mention here the outcome could bring about a win-win situation, in part, for all concerned. In any event, it is expected inter alia the assessment of economic performance covering the fiscal year will be conducted in an honest, professional and acceptable manner.

In light of above, at least one thing has become clear: reforms in the domain of forecasting should be pursued in an aggressive, result-oriented and sustainable manner so that the number of unknown and uncontrollable variables in pertinent areas could be reduced to an acceptable level, resulting hopefully in a continually incremental improvement of quantity and quality of prediction through the foreseeable future. I believe an 'accurate' or a near 'accurate' forecasting and its productive (= effective + efficient) implementation could help: minimize wastage; ensure maximum utilization of scarce resources; and reduce the gap between objectives and outcomes of for example, development projects and programs including those aiming at the poor.

In that respect, I also believe factors such as: a breakthrough in mathematics of forecasting; an improved capturing, circulation, retention and use of meaningful, as well as useful data, information and statistics throughout the world; and a proper and result-oriented management of data having exponential magnitudes with the help of say, upcoming quantum computers; could inter alia be instrumental in ensuring quantitative, qualitative and other improvements in areas of forecasting. One of the concerns here is: the domain of forecasting is not at present immune to threats, risks and vulnerabilities emanating from say, politics, diplomacy, terrorism and competition at relevant conceptual, operation and other levels, and antidotes available to cope with existing and evolving challenges associated with forecasting are, in an average sense, meager and deficient in the per capita affordability.

The last word: no person or entity or both should be allowed to blackmail - in a conscious and deliberate manner - Bangladeshis and others on any matter including the one pertaining to GDP projections. An ill motivated GDP related prediction could be devastating for Bangladesh and in particular, for poor people of Bangladesh at the time when a global meltdown has already started and the country is passing through one of the critical hours of its history - all against the backdrop of a progressively re-integrating and increasingly interdependent universe.

The outcome of predictions made respectively by the WB and the army-supported government could trigger inter alia the need for a quick and result-oriented BMR (balancing, modernization and rehabilitation) exercise at relevant levels of the government and the WB, as appropriate. But I believe the BMR exercise in pertinent areas of forecasting should be a continuous activity.

Let us cultivate forecasting skills at individual, collective and other levels. Let us stop making forecasting a continuous victim of pollution, among other things. Let us work towards improving anti-poverty competitiveness of self and society through more realistic and more implementation potential-laden forecasting than that at present. May Almighty God bless all His creatures and their good endeavors!