The New Nation - Internet Edition

Protecting against economic shock

THE present global financial crisis has engulfed some big economies including those of the G-7 countries. The crisis is likely to hit the Bangladesh economy marginally if it prevails for a short period; but a prolonged and deeper recession will have a strong negative impact on the economy. The capital market is considered safe in the main as it has very little linkage with foreign portfolio investment. However, impacts of a prolonged crisis mainly on the exports, remittance, foreign aid, and investment are not ruled out. Inward flow of remittance has already started showing a downward trend from American and European countries as expatriates are compelled to spend more to meet basic needs. Against this perspective, a technical committee appointed to monitor the impact of the global crisis and make necessary recommendations has started working.

Bangladesh's export earning depends on a few items ranging from primary goods to industrial products. The highest amount of foreign exchange is earned from remittance made by Bangladeshis working abroad and from the export of readymade garment. More than three-quarters of the country's export earnings reportedly come from the US and European markets that have already been affected by the economic meltdown. The two vital sectors of export are likely to be affected by the economic ups and downs in these countries. Steps are needed to expand the precariously narrow export base on the basis of a detailed study of foreign markets. Ways should be evolved to increase export both in quantity and quality. The export-oriented industries are likely to be more vulnerable to global economic instability. Priority should thus be given to exportable items that also have domestic demand.

Accepting elections gracefully

REPORTEDLY, the ambassadors of top donor countries in Bangladesh have been urging the major political parties behind the scene that they should extend their unstinted cooperation in holding the parliamentary elections peacefully and gracefully. The move reflects their concern for Bangladesh which their countries have been supporting in a very constructive way through aid, trade, grants and loans. The leadership of our main political parties must wind up their politics of antagonisms after the election and concentrate fully on the parliament to be formed.

All should turn to the business of running the country smoothly so that it can maintain its essential economic, social and political good health. There has to be a united and shared feeling among all to accept the people's verdict in the election to preserve and promote the interests of the country. The latest US Presidential election is an example. The unsuccessful candidate in that election had no qualms in conceding defeat most gracefully and in extending the gesture of sincere cooperation to the President-elect. Senator McCain who lost the election, will be coming to Bangladesh very soon. Politicians, it is believed, would benefit from interactions with him during the visit.

The leader of one of the two main political parties is accusing the Election Commission (EC) and the government of creating conditions favourable to her opponent. These are serious allegations and should better not have been made. The people expect that there are no grounds for such reasoning which again should not be stretched too far. The important thing is that elections should be held to restore the democratic process and the same should be credible to both the winners and the losers.

Media should assist the voters in knowing the truth

Dr. M. S. Haq

Election practices - such as the use of incorrect information, false information, inadequate information, fabricated information, ill motivated information or information polluted otherwise, whether deliberately or not - by election candidates, political party workers, as well as leaders, government leaders and concerned others through the media (print, electronic, others) during say, election seasons have so far been found to be a formidable barrier to initial conditions for better governance in Bangladesh.

One of the apparent motives behind those practices is to attract and grab election votes by misleading the voters and others, including inter alia the poor and the donors, with the help of media related insufficiency - relative to time, space and other variables, though. In other words, the present day role of media - in letting the voters and others know the truth, as applicable, behind for example, party stances and candidacy information - is, in an average sense, poor.

If the state of affairs is allowed to continue through the current election season, it would then be difficult to predict, with a 100 percent certainty, the quality of election, if that takes place eventually - though, and the impact of outcomes of that election on the quality of governance after the transfer of power to a people's elected government. How could the abuse of voters' vote related decisions by politicians and others through for example, false and fabricated information be instrumental in inter alia bringing about a significant change for better via the upcoming people's administration?

The cause, the effect and the causality associated with the role, the contribution and the outcome of BNP-Jamaat and AL administrations in the past years (starting, 1991) have now, as appropriate and among other things, become physical realities, virtual realities, records, reports, and statistics in pertinent areas. In view of that, it can be said: not a single - conscious, responsible, and mentally, as well as morally healthy - election candidate has at least a legal right to play dirty games with those established things in pursuits of creating a false image in favor of his or her party stance or in favor of his or her candidacy or both before Bangladeshi voters - before the election, per se.

The information pertaining to for example, poverty figures, prices of rice and other commodities, child mortality rates, BOP (used in an economic sense), inflation rates, crime rates and literacy rates during the above years are not only available to Bangladesh but to world countries at large - as applicable, though. Despite the above fact, political leaders representing parties - big or small or medium - are now-a-days engaged in inter alia distorting the truth via say, the media presentations. It is indeed a shameful act on the part of concerned political leaders, for example.

Why are they attempting to build-up, sustain and promote their election winning matrices on premises that are false or far from the truth, among other things? Why is the media - in particular, the electronic media telecast those political stuff without pointing out the truth in pertinent areas with a view to say, assisting the voters in their efforts towards taking eventually vote related decisions based on the truth and the truth alone. Bangladeshis can no longer afford future governments that will come to power with a background based on falsehoods in relevant areas.

One of the concerns here is: the illusion (false perceptions) that is now being created in pertinent areas prior to election votes could help - concerned political party or parties which will subsequently come to power - to devaluing (used in a theoretical sense) inter alia the country's development status before ordinary people of Bangladesh, world tax payers, donors and others. In such an event, the gap between the actual development (= ad) and the devalued development (= dd), I mean, not the real one, at a given time, could create spaces for the successor government to benefit from opportunities such as and as appropriate: corruption; wastage; and unnecessary developmental re-rolling. Incompatibilities of above nature associated with the demand side and the supply side of the country's development could increase inter alia the cost of irrelevance in the effort towards advancement of developments at local, national and other levels - by concerned stakeholders. It will not be out of place to mention here, despites the present day progress in IC and other related technologies, a government can still hide many things from the world people as it would deem fit.

In light of above, it expected the media (print, electronic, others) would now onwards monitor for example, the statements of political leaders, government leaders and others at different forums on a daily basis with a view to upholding the established truth in pertinent areas and sharing the truth in those areas with people of Bangladesh and others - all in the greater local, national, global and other interests. In any case, Bangladesh should be liberated from the present day truth related deficit.

It is also expected the country's civil society, cell phone companies, internet service providers and concerned others will assist the people - in particular, the poor - in knowing and using pertinent truth and pertinent truth behind the truth (as applicable) in a more meaningful, sustainable and progressive manner than that at present, as applicable. They should act as antidotes to future blackmailing by government, private sector, political parties and concerned others in pertinent areas.

The way forward

Kofi Annan

The ink is hardly dry on the communique from Saturday's Group of 20 meeting, where members pledged to work together to revive their economies. Time, political will and in particular the Obama administration will determine whether the goals and ambitions set out will be realised. But the communique's significance should not be underestimated.

First, that the pledge should emerge from a G-20 meeting-a forum of advanced and emerging countries-rather than, say, a G-8 or OECD meeting, bodes well for a more inclusive response to the global economic crisis.

Events of the past few months have again underscored that no single country or small subset of countries, even the most powerful or wealthy, can manage the forces unleashed in our globalised world. The Washington meeting potentially represents the beginning of an era of unprecedented cooperation for concerted action on other equally pressing issues, such as climate change, food security and poverty reduction.

Second, it is proposing a process and a timetable both to brake if not reverse the slide into global recession, and to reform the international economic architecture. To date, response has been in crisis mode. But the underlying issues require a sustained response, being systemic in nature: insufficient regulation and supervision of the financial markets; unsustainable energy policies; unpredictable and insufficient assistance for the most vulnerable; and uncoordinated macro-economic policies. These issues could not be more relevant for Africa. The economic meltdown has come at the worst possible time. Notwithstanding the persistence of conflict and untold humanitarian tragedy in far too many places, including the Horn of Africa, Darfur, eastern Congo and Zimbabwe, the continent has enjoyed a decade of real progress, albeit starting from a low base relative to other parts of the world.

Africa has seen growth rates that are higher than in the past, impressive increases in foreign direct investment and breakthroughs in governance, accountability, education, disease control and the quality of life.

The current crisis comes as Africa struggles to maintain this positive momentum after a year of rising food prices and unprecedented volatility in fuel costs. Food and fertiliser are punishingly unaffordable for consumers and farmers. Recession and slowdown in high-income countries, as well as China, India and the Middle East, are resulting in plummeting commodity prices and exports, reduced remittance flows and decreases in foreign direct investment.

African leaders face an almost impossible challenge: how to protect their fragile economies and vulnerable people from global recession at a time when their revenues are decreasing. Maintaining levels of public investment is the basis for political stability and achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. Inability to do so could have profound consequences - in terms of unemployment, poverty and social and political tensions.

Last week, at the Tunis meeting of African ministers of finance and central bank governors, the outlines of a way forward were agreed: continued macro-economic stability, strengthened regulation and oversight of financial institutions, and renewed efforts to improve governance and accountability structures. African countries want to diversify economic activity, strengthen regional infrastructure and recognise the need to create the conditions to encourage investment and domestic savings.

At a time when private capital flows are diminishing, increased access to loans and grants from the international financial institutions and predictable development assistance, are critical.

Failure to honour aid commitments would be a breach of faith and potentially disastrous for the ability of Africa to achieve the Millenium Development Goals. For richer countries, this is not about charity. It is about self-interest. By helping Africa to build roads and railways, power plants, and irrigation and water treatment systems, donors will increase capital exports to Africa at a time when their own industries are facing a collapse of demand.

Aid can be a global stimulus - a powerful way to convert excess capacity in wealthier countries into long-term and high-return benefits, including quick recovery from high unemployment. There is an important brokerage role to be played-to encourage partnerships between governments, development banks, export credit agencies and the private sector to catalyse this two-way stimulus. Development assistance can also contribute to global security. Problems in one country, let alone one continent, cannot be contained within borders. If African countries cannot overcome the many social and economic challenges they face, these problems will spill over rapidly.

Migration to Europe, for example, cannot be managed without addressing the social and environmental fundamentals that are contributing to both conflict and mass movement of people.

Africa still has a long way to go; too many leaders remain unaccountable to their people, and the capacity of regional institutions to prevent and manage conflict remains weak. But in my lifetime, and in the last decade, there has been enormous progress.

Since the 2002 Monterrey meeting on Financing for Development, a compact has been emerging. Richer countries will put development issues at the heart of global agreements, whether on finance, trade, climate change, intellectual property or other pressing issues. Developing countries will prioritise good governance, accountability and the Millennium Development Goals.

Success in tackling the great challenges before us requires genuine partnership and mutual accountability. The least-developed countries must also have a voice and be fully represented in the institutions empowered by the global community to take the lead.

Whether the G-20 meeting on Saturday was a success or not now depends upon the follow-up. It will have served us well if it launches a new era of inclusive economic cooperation and diplomacy.

Change need not take centuries to come

Dr Farish A. Noor

The electoral victory of Barack Obama as the new President of the United States of America was long overdue, and many of us are thankful for it. No, its not because the rest of us are racists who hate white men; and no, its not because we are captive to the essentialised idea that black Americans are all victims and are necessarily good and innocent, in toto. Its simply because change is refreshing and we believe that change is good and healthy for the nation and humanity in general.

I recall taking a flight from Frankfurt to Kuala Lumpur once, when the pilot spoke to the passengers before take off. Suddenly there was a collective gasp of surprise when we realised that our pilot was a woman! I was suddenly gripped by an overwhelming sense of relief and curious pride, for somewhere in my settled conscience the idea had been sedimented that all pilots (like all doctors, scientists and Presidents) had to be male.

Throughout the flight I had to resist the temptation of bursting into the cockpit to congratulate her, and to tell her how proud I was to be flying in a plane piloted by a woman for a change. (Though, of course, because I'm Muslim I would have been arrested immediately and handcuffed for fear of being a terrorist!)

That's how change happens. It takes us by surprise and in a second it's over and the historical moment has passed. But it requires that one vital element that makes change possible in the first place: human agency. There would not have been a woman pilot on my flight if this woman had not pursued her ambition to become a pilot relentlessly, never giving up on her dream despite the obstacles she may or may not have faced. I am only raising this point now as I have noticed a rather disturbing, and potentially dangerous, narrative that has and is being spun in the wake of Obama's victory.

This is the narrative that the change that has come to the United States is due to the long historically determined and linear process of evolution; that we are told takes time, time and more time. We are fed the line that "Of course, America has finally changed because it took four hundred years for black Americans to rise to where they are today."

This sort of non-historical nonsense is served to us warmed up as a pseudo-scientific account of how and why historical progression needs to follow its own appointed destiny, and work within a fixed template that is set and determined in all cases. But this, the historian would like to add, is also utter nonsense.

The French lived under centuries of feudal rule by despotic Kings and Emperors like other Europeans, and for centuries they tried again and again to release themselves from the yoke of feudal domination. Until the time came when contingent historical factors occasioned a radical opening that allowed for revolutionary change at last.

Likewise black Americans have been struggling against racism as soon as they were enslaved and brought to America in chains, and it wasn't?just yesterday that they realised ?that one of them could run for President.

For this reason we should not see Obama's victory as a sudden and novel development of American society, but rather as one of those openings that allow for rupture from continuity and the historical progression of the same. Historical moments like these are always contingent, radical and unexpected, but they happen because there are human beings who exercise their free will and agency to will and fight for change; rather than to sit by and let history takes its course.

History may always be a repetition of sameness, but historical moments take place when that sameness is challenged and successfully ruptured.

Therefore let us not swallow the silly argument that just because it took Americans 400 years to elect a black man as President every other country on the planet needs to wait 400 years before we can do the same too. No, change does not take 400 years to happen. In countries like Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and others, change has been on the boil for some time now and there is ample evidence that the old crumbling structures of governments and institutionalised power are falling apart.

Will Malaysians have to wait 400 years before they see a woman as Prime Minister? Or a Malaysian-minded Prime Minister who breaks away from the outdated structures of racialised politics? Will countries like Indonesia, Pakistan, India also have to wait 400 years before we see real change?

The narrative of history threads together elements of the same and the familiar to form a story that is consistent and intelligible, but the historian will tell you that history is replete with contingencies and ironies that broke the mould of the past and charted a new course for the future.

For that reason, America's success and Obama's success should inspire us not to repeat history, but to go against it. Obama's struggle against the tide of time makes him a man of our times; and let us hope that for so many other countries in Asia that same untimeliness will prevail as well. We can start by exercising our will for change, and by saying 'No, we will not wait four hundred years before we dream of a better world today.'