The New Nation - Internet Edition

Protect agricultural land

OVER five thousand farmers in Narayanganj district the other day reportedly protested against a government decision of acquiring cropland for construction of roads. Farmers from 20 villages of the Sadar and Fatulla thanas held a protest rally and formed a committee to protect their land. They also threatened to go for tougher movements if the government sticks to the decision. It is reported that 650 bighas of land are to be acquired for the proposed road construction.

Development works require the use of land. But it needs to be done without affecting other sectors. Road construction over farmland will have serious negative impact not only on the economy of the landowners but also on food production. The nation will suffer for mindless encroachment of agricultural land. It will endanger food security. A survey on land holdings found 0.31 percent decease in cropland over a period of two decades due to diversion of farmland to orchard, fisheries and social forestry. If occupation of land for construction of roads and houses, development of industrial estates and unplanned urbanisation is added, loss of cropland may reach as high as one percent every year. Encroachment of farmland for non-agricultural uses would be unwise as the per capita agricultural land declines sharply and food production fails to cope with population growth. Indiscriminate development of land has also serious environmental impacts. Such works obstruct natural flow of water over floodplains. Against such perspective, the demand of the farmers in Narayanganj merits serious consideration.

A broad land use policy with zoning of land based on nature and quality of soil needs to be adopted urgently to allocate land of particular quality for specific use. House building, road construction, urbanisation and installation of industries must be restricted to non-agricultural land.

Monga-prone people safe

AS reported in the press, the prevalence of "Monga" in the rural areas of different districts of greater Rangpur and Dinajpur, has largely been contained in the current autumn season. The poor millions of rural people, including day labourers and share-croppers, have noted the economic realities, that virtually side-tracked the "Monga". The supply of foodgrains and allied items has been augmented with the harvesting of T-Aman paddy introduced in the current season. The BRRI-Dhan-33 has been introduced with support from official agencies. Beyond that, the introduction of 100-day employment generation scheme, the VGF, the VGD and Test Relief programmes of the government were of great help.

The poor people in the northern districts so long faced too many problems. Of those, the price-hike of food items during the month of Aswin and Kartik affected the poor millions every year. The majority of the poor people remain unemployed for this reason and that due to prevailing practice of growing traditional paddy. Except the landowners, who own the farmlands, the majority of the rural poor and the share-croppers, fail to earn enough for meeting demands for food, shelter, medicare and education of children. They face "Monga" in the autumn season and suffer from related problems.

It is worth noting that sufferings from starvation and non-availability of food grains have come down this time. Official agencies noted that starvation was not observed in the region and that is due to the positive effects of various programmes. It is to be noted that new varieties of paddy can be produced in a relatively short range of time. Production has been augmented. The fiscal resources for the VGF, the VGD, the Test Relief and other projects have since been made available to the poor people in the region reducing the impact of 'Monga'.

Engineering and technology with an anti-poverty face

Dr. M. S. Haq

I am in receipt (I mean yesterday - 14th day of November 2008) of a copy of Choyon - a tri-monthly magazine (July-September 2008 issue) edited by Poet Lily Haq. I am not sure about the spelling of her name, though. The publisher of magazine was Sudipto Printers. It now appears to me a critical mass of the magazine has apparently been created by products (essay, short stories, poems) of a number of promising literary personalities of Bangladesh - besides, the country's existing literary personalities such as Mrs. Mokbula Manjur (correct spelling?), Dr. Ashraf Siddique (correct spelling?) and the editor herself.

The focus of above products was multi-disciplinary in nature and scope - ranging from gender biases and inadequacies associated with the country's social, as well as criminal justice system; to eid reunions and sweet reminiscences; to attempts towards capturing one's own past in pursuits of taking a pause from the moving reality (Dr. Jahan Ara), to interactive virtual discussions, to love and emotion, to nature, and to other things perceived or sensed or felt or internalized otherwise by contemporary human systems (used in a medical sense) of relevant contributors - relative, however, to time, space and other variables. The bottom line is: a good effort towards creating an interface between self and surroundings in the search of happiness and welfare - both finite and infinite, per se.

Interesting though, a part of the magazine deals with inter alia pieces of news reflecting on activities pertaining to distribution of happiness among all stakeholders of Choyon and Lily Haq foundation (including inter alia poor Bangladeshis) - - via assisting for example, the stakeholders, who are poor, in their effort towards improving the quality of life and towards liberating themselves from clutches of poverty.

The activities of Choyon literature club and Lily Haq foundation - at present, in a limited way, though - focusing on for example: sustainable livelihoods, helping the poor to acquire fungible assets, educational assistance to poor children, health care assistance to the poor, and distribution of winter cloths to the poor bear testimony to the good work. The bottom line is: literature in anti-poverty action.

The examples of Choyon and others in creating, sustaining and promoting choices for Bangladeshi poor and other disadvantaged people tend to suggest, among other things, there is - at least at this point in time - no apparent shortage of anti-poverty windows in Bangladesh. But one of the present day challenges, in that respect, is: how best and quickest Bangladesh, friends of Bangladesh (including inter alia the US, Saudi Arabia, the UK, the EU), neighbors of Bangladesh (including inter alia India, Pakistan, Myanmar) and others (including inter alia the World Bank, the UN, the SAARC) could create enabling environments for say, local anti-poverty entities - both existing and evolving - in pursuits of enhancing anti-poverty interplays between and among them and mainstreaming resultant gains in for example, national and sub-regional anti-poverty programs and outcomes for ensuring a continually incremental and sustainable impact on life and living of poor people of Bangladesh and the world at large. It should be noted here - in the present era of reintegrating universe (used in a deeper sense) the world is getting smaller; things are getting nearer or closer or both to each other; and challenges, as well as opportunities for survival, living and continuity in the universe are, in a sense, attaining nano dimensions in qualitative, quantitative and other terms; to mention a few.

The world of engineering and technology has already started responding to, among other things, nano challenges - the quantum computers are on its way, robotics is expanding its domain, the demand for precision mechanics is growing, and so on and so forth.

But in an increasingly changing universe, the development in areas of theories and practices pertaining to human development and anti-poverty activities is not inter alia encouraging. The gap between technological developments and the development of poor people is, in many respects, growing - enhancing, at present, risks and vulnerabilities of world people particularly, the poor to distribution related disparity, deprivation, loss of entitlement, and disease, of various nature and types.

The present day anti-poverty opportunities lie in inter alia giving - at the soonest and in a result-oriented manner - a more prominent anti-poverty face - than the existing one - to engineering and technology in pertinent areas.

American presidential election at the threshold of history

Dr. Md. Shairul Mashreque

The USA presidential (2008) election appeared at the moment when the country was faced with daunting challenges in the backdrop of painful economic recession accompanied with unprecedented financial panic hovering around Wall Street melt down. The major financial sectors were on the verge of shutting down. The United States was in fact passing through the critical time of its economic history with macro economics sliding into weakness. The reserve bank cut spending on development. An attempt to stimulate consumer spending through tax rebates became an attempt in futility .The exchange value of dollar continued to show decreasing trend. The state of joblessness was skyrocketing. There were other marks of disaster like dysfunctional state of credit market resulting from faulty monetary policy and downward spiral of house and mortgage prices.

The main focus of electoral campaign was on hitherto badly shaped US economy. The challenges to be left by apparently failed Bush administration will be difficult to overcome on the part of the new incumbent. The Americans would like the new administration to rescue US economy more than they would like to rescue Wall Street. .Protecting US economy was more important than proposing $700 billion plan to bail out financial industry .The advent of the new president ushers in new hopes-steering clear of all irritants piled up in the wake of misdirected policy intervention.

The pre-election opinion polls in many states signaled political change. The Republican candidate might have expected victory in the long run depending on the 'Bradley effect' syndrome despite things not going his way. It means that a black candidate well in ahead may ultimately lose or win by a narrow margin as it happened in governor or mayor polls. There was a little possibility that such thing would happen in presidential election never ever. Moreover, the situation was quite different that might have changed voting behaviour. The American voters now concerned little about racial identity and more about deepened economic crisis. Many analysts attributed US economy in worst stage after 1930's great depression to his (Bush) failed foreign policy particularly his engagement in two wars with lavish military expenditure.

The people voted against his policy failure and global misgovernance. Bush will be on record as a representative sample of the worst form of imperialism. When the crisis was mounting he could not find plausible reasons to support his stand on the issue of withdrawal of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. The American presidential election of 2008 may be viewed as a noteworthy and significant episode-eventful and epoch making as such. It has acquired a special significance for a score of historical marks and watersheds. It is significant in the context of deplorable economic situation obtaining in the country-an economic tsunami as such. The voters would like to vote for change.

In the democratic political system it may be treated as an acid test of the degree of mass hatred against Bush administration-a filibuster who let loose reign of terror especially in Iraq. His military actions in Iraq and Afghanistan were condemned all over the world. The popularity of Bush was at the lowest ebb with his failed domestic policy and diplomacy. He assumed the office of presidency by winning in 2000 presidential election with a slight edge over Al Gore in electoral vote although the latter's position was better in popular vote. And there was a little skepticism about electoral fairness.

The election was a silent revolution -a victory of 'we the people' who did not like to leave liveries of Bush administration lurking in the Republican tradition-the party with which the Pentagon feels more comfortable. It was symbolic of the ouster of Bush paramountcy-an anathema thrown into the dustbin of history. Bush was wrong in reading the future; Himalayan repercussions were world wide for the monumental blunder he made. The Republican candidate McCain turned out to become the victim of the circumstances-a scapegoat as such. Being the most important presidential election in at least 40 years it contains global significance. Many countries became victims of the deluge of globalization in the sinister days of Bush. With him the American imperialism showed its ugliest face. The voters were livid with anger for his diplomatic fiasco. They wanted to get rid of disastrous fall outs of two wars badly affecting US economy.

Both the contenders-Barack Obama and John McCain-were senators. For the first time in American electoral history a non-white candidate appeared at the race to white house. He happened to be a Kenyan American. It may be recalled that in the pretty past franchise was restricted and taxable for non-whites being treated as second class citizens. For them race for nominations for any policy level positions was a far cry .Now scenario changed a lot taking U-turn. It is really a mental revolution. The Americans would have to choose between the two irrespective of caste, creed, race and religion. These two contestants were the persons with 'strikingly powerful life stories, as well as significant differences in social and political philosophies and their views of how best to deal with the rest of the world'-an inkling of ideological and policy differences between the two.

The election was exceptional in terms of voters' enthusiasm and participation. The voters seemed to be more enthusiastic than reluctant in exercising their franchise. They participated in large number as indicated by the voter turn out-highest after 1960.The immigrants burst into jubilation reacting with effulgence of feelings on the stunning victory of Barack Obama. The result of the 44th presidential election was a foregone conclusion as the pre-election opinion polls demonstrated sewing in favour of Obama. John McCain fared badly even in the states that were Republican's support base (Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and north Carolina.). Actually the results of the large states like Florida and California showed the clear indication.

Out total 538 Electoral College votes in 51 states Obama: 349 and McCain: 163 Obama beat McCain also in popular vote: 30 and 20 respectively (according to the latest news received). 270 electoral votes are needed to score a victory. Whereas Obama won over ex- first lady Hillary Clinton in narrow margin McCain had a comprehensive win over his contender in nomination race. There was a 'revolution of rising expectation' among the youth. Obama aged 47 was accepted as the voice of the new generation. A large contingent of adolescents and youth (about 66%) strolling from 18 to 44 vote for Obama. They shared hilarious moments in the street wildly celebrating the victory of the leader of their liking.

(The author is professor, Dept. of Public Administration, Chittagong University)

Panic goes counter to share trading norms

AK Azad

Here we would like to extract a well-known quote by Merril Lynch:

"The secret is to first learn, then to invest & then go on learning".

So friends, lets continue with my analysis (if you think it's worthy to read anyway):-

a. Categories of traders:-

1. Institutional/organized investors including merchant banks, personal gigantic portfolio investors and speculators also.

2. Middle-group investors who came to the stock market understanding short-time handsome return and have invested their own hard earned money or have borrowed the same from banks on high interest rate or from relatives.

3. Day trader/in and out trader, chartist, contrarian etc.

1. They are buying and enriching their portfolios. This you can check everyday that after a sharp fall in price specially on A category chips, there is a big volume buy (thanks to www.biasl.net and also to Mr. Sohel who categorically showed this).

2. They are behaving according to day-by-day wave and are selling in large and buying in small.

3. They are more or less inactive.

1. Considering company fundamentals with P/E ratios they are building their position & waiting to revive the market in full keeping in mind the current upcoming political turmoil leading to a chaotic election and also after election impact.

2. Basing on rumors such as fall of international stock market, economic crisis in USA which is affecting the whole world, recent heavy cut on Oil price, some world wide big investors considering Vietnam, India & Pakistan as their next invest option and so on. Also local reasons of what will happen to election, who will be on power, the giant companies will not make profit this year, government stocks is not declaring any stock dividends, banks in Bangladesh profit loss because of huge defaulter importers due to international market crisis, etc, etc.

3. This group has actually anticipated the situation and is inactive at the moment because they have sold or selling their position to hold a substantial amount and waiting for the precise time to enter.

A huge amount is & will be out-flowing from the market because of upcoming election which was injected at the time of present care-taker government drive against black money and came to this business because stock market is always considered to be the safe spot due to government's sensitive awareness. This investors in large have put up the money here actually not for a handsome return but keeping the money in business which they can en-cash when they need it. So when they withdraw their position, the market will collapse further.

The above will lead #2 traders to be more panic than ever and future buying opportunities will create. Consider in mind that #2 traders are everyday under pressure from the origination of the money as they are incurring day-by-day interest and can not and will not hold their position long.

A newly-formed government committee is reviewing possible impact of global financial crisis on the economy and work out plans to prevent its consequences. This includes SEC. This committee will take instant corrective measures. This means the present government is and will be allowing more merchant banks with FI & NIFs to operate and also relax their loan terms to ease the current situation but in turn this will be boomerang for the small investors as they will maneuver the market more by creating pressure to offload the portfolios as their desire.

No foreign investors will be interested in this situation and will wait for a elected government to steer the market. Keep in mind that as the world stock market is collapsing, there would create more opportunities for them to invest in these uprising markets such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, India and even Pakistan.

In the fall market, the only positive side is that somehow & somewhere the price correction is underway. Some overvalued chips specially banks are coming down considerably but we should keep in mind that company fundamentals & P/E ratios will be a key factor on long term opportunity. Also a good number of stocks like Jamuna Oil, Meghna Oil, Titas has already come in and others are in pipeline not mentioning Grameen Phone which is scheduled to be in the market early next year.

There will be a good buying opportunity when BNP will push the present government to free their top leaders and negotiate to confirm their main partners safe participation. Also Sheikh Hasina's return will be a major factor as she will also demand the same for herself and the party. The situation would be worsening from next week to the end of the election creating a wave depending on the circumstances but long-term builders will ultimately be gainers. But please do keep in mind that at the end of the day, both the top parties will be participating in the election and there will be a good election to conclude. Meantime DSE will try to inject some more IVs to accelerate the market but this will not work for long so my personal suggestion would be to offload the shares in hand (if still any) which are not enough credible and wait for the correct time to come.

So in conclusion, my submission is that do not panic, act like a matured trader and wait for the opportunities to come and be fruitful by harvesting the proper seed and nurture it properly.

I wish to end my article quoting one of my favorite quote:-"The winners do not do things unusually but do it in unusual ways."