The New Nation - Internet Edition

Halting slide in remittance flow

THE inward flow of remittance shows a declining trend. It is particularly observed in the remittance flow from American and European countries. The decline was 17.4 percent in October than the previous month. This trend has been reflected in the account books of commercial banks that channel remittances. The foreign exchange reserve also came down to US$5.17 billion on November 3 from US$5.80 billion on October 23.

The Bangladesh Bank is reported to have identified reluctance of the expatriate Bangladeshis in sending their hard-earned money as a major cause. Major currencies are losing in value as a likely consequence of the global economic crisis. The remitters see sending money to the country less rewarding at present. Another likely cause of the trend is that the expatriates have to spend more on subsistence than they used to do before. According to the central bank, inward flow of remittance usually increases before festivals to meet the additional expenditure by the families of the expatriates and falls after festivals. Bangladesh received US$794.18 million from the expatriates in the month of September before the Eid-ul-Fitr. The amount came down to US$655.98 million in October. An increase of remittance is expected before the next Eid.

Remittance from Bangladeshis working abroad is the highest source of foreign exchange and is one of the main pillars of the national economy. It helps maintain macro-economic stability of the country. Any drastic fall in remittance will seriously weaken the economy. The causes of the fall in remittance urgently need to be investigated to seal loopholes, if any. Appropriate measures should be taken to maintain a comfortable foreign exchange reserve in the face of the global economic crisis.

Indian girl-boy ratio

THE number of girls to boys in India has hit a record low, British charity Action-Aid said as it urged the government of India to take 'sustained action' to prevent a lost generation of women. 'In a country with a long history of discrimination against women, the preference for sons over daughters has led to the number of girls under the age six hitting an all-time low' said Action-Aid in a report. Ratios of boys to girls aged 0-6 in four out of five states it studied in north and northwest India were now lower than at the time of the nationwide census in 2001 - and the gap was widening, the report said.

The report called on the government for enactment of tougher laws, if required, and enforcement of those banning prenatal sex detection and sex-selective abortion, describing their efforts to implement the legislation so far as 'woefully inadequate'. Attitude towards girls as financial burdens for families because of dowry pressures on the occasion of their marriage also needs to be challenged while the quality of and access to public care and state-run schools should be improved, the report added. 'It is clear that without sustained action on many fronts, millions more women will go missing in India', the report said citing figures from medical journal The Lancet that more than 500,000 female foetuses are being aborted every year at least.

Action-Aid members and Canada's International Research Centre interviewed families in more than 6,000 households and compared statistics with national census data. The researchers said that normally, there should be about 950 girls born for every 1,000 boys, but found that already low ratios of girls to boys from 2001 in the sites surveyed were now even lower, except for India's Rajasthan state. Kangra in India's Himachal Pradesh state saw the steepest fall from 900 to 789.

Trading in the share market

AK Azad

Today, I wish to share some of my views on our current stock market situation with few future predictions. These are solely my own conclusions gaining over my observation of last one year and also by exchanging views with my heartiest friends who are also new here but are rich in thoughts and I am honored of having such kind of association. I welcome all of yours ideas & suggestions on my perspective and also anticipate your own prediction to enhance ourselves to proceed further in this trade.

Here I would like to extract a well-known quote by Merril Lynch:

"The secret is to first learn, then to invest & then go on learning".

So friends, lets continue with my analysis (if you think it's worthy to read anyway):-

a. Categories of traders:-

#1. Institutional/organized investors including merchant banks, personal gigantic portfolio investors and speculators also.

#2. Middle-group investors who came to the stock market understanding short-time handsome return and have invested their own hard earned money or have borrowed the same from banks on high interest rate or from relatives.

#3. Day trader/in and out trader, chartist, contrarian etc.

b. Current behavior of traders:-

#1. They are buying and enriching their portfolios. This you can check everyday that after a sharp fall in price specially on A category chips, there is a big volume buy (thanks to www.biasl.net and also to Mr. Sohel who categorically showed this).

#2. They are behaving according to day-by-day wave and are selling in large and buying in small.

#3. They are more or less inactive.

c. Reason behind current situation:-

#1. Considering company fundamentals with P/E ratios they are building their position & waiting to revive the market in full keeping in mind the current upcoming political turmoil leading to a chaotic election and also after election impact.

#2. Basing on rumors such as fall of international stock market, economic crisis in USA which is affecting the whole world, recent heavy cut on Oil price, some world wide big investors considering Vietnam, India & Pakistan as their next invest option and so on. Also local reasons of what will happen to election, who will be on power, the giant companies will not make profit this year, government stocks is not declaring any stock dividends, banks in Bangladesh profit loss because of huge defaulter importers due to international market crisis, etc, etc.

#3. This group has actually anticipated the situation and is inactive at the moment because they have sold or selling their position to hold a substantial amount and waiting for the precise time to enter.

d. My observation and assumption are:-

A huge amount is & will be out-flowing from the market because of upcoming election which was injected at the time of present care-taker government drive against black money and came to this business because stock market is always considered to be the safe spot due to government's sensitive awareness. This investors in large have put up the money here actually not for a handsome return but keeping the money in business which they can en-cash when they need it. So when they withdraw their position, the market will collapse further.

The above will lead #2 traders to be more panic than ever and future buying opportunities will create. Consider in mind that #2 traders are everyday under pressure from the origination of the money as they are incurring day-by-day interest and can not and will not hold their position long.

A newly-formed government committee is reviewing possible impact of global financial crisis on the economy and work out plans to prevent its consequences. This includes SEC. This committee will take instant corrective measures.

This means the present government is and will be allowing more merchant banks with FI & NIFs to operate and also relax their loan terms to ease the current situation but in turn this will be boomerang for the small investors as they will maneuver the market more by creating pressure to offload the portfolios as their desire.

No foreign investors will be interested in this situation and will wait for a elected government to steer the market. Keep in mind that as the world stock market is collapsing, there would create more opportunities for them to invest in these uprising markets such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, India and even Pakistan.

e. My future predictions are:-

In the fall market, the only positive side is that somehow and somewhere the price correction is underway. Some overvalued chips specially banks are coming down considerably but we should keep in mind that company fundamentals & P/E ratios will be a key factor on long term opportunity. Also a good number of stocks like Jamuna Oil, Meghna Oil, Titas has already come in and others are in pipeline not mentioning Grameen Phone which is scheduled to be in the market early next year.

There will be a good buying opportunity when BNP will push the present government to free their top leaders and negotiate to confirm their main partners safe participation. Also Sheikh Hasina's return will be a major factor as she will also demand the same for herself and the party. The situation would be worsening from next week to the end of the election creating a wave depending on the circumstances but long-term builders will ultimately be gainers.

But please do keep in mind that at the end of the day, both the top parties will be participating in the election and there will be a good election to conclude. Meantime DSE will try to inject some more IVs to accelerate the market but this will not work for long so my personal suggestion would be to offload the shares in hand (if still any) which are not enough credible and wait for the correct time to come.

So in conclusion, my submission is that do not panic, act like a matured trader and wait for the opportunities to come and be fruitful by harvesting the proper seed and nurture it properly. I wish to end my article quoting one of my favorite quote:-"The winners do not do things unusually but do it in unusual ways."

A.Z.M.Enayetullah Khan: A Reminiscence

Md. Shaheduzzaman

My father used to subscribe and read the then Pakistan Observer (later The Bangladesh Observer), the weekly Holiday and the Reader's Digest in particular. It was on his insistence that I started reading newspapers in my High School days. And by the time I was in the 9th Grade of High School, I developed a passion for the weekly Holiday, though most of the words used in the write-ups of Mr. AZ.M. Enayetullah Khan were unfamiliar to me at that age of mine. I used to take almost the whole week looking up his words in the dictionary and trying to comprehend his write-ups by repeated reading. Around that time, I felt an urge to enrich my knowledge in English language and was inspired to match Mr. Enayetullah Khan's vocabulary which I am yet to do. Subsequently, I cherished to meet Mr. Enayetullah some day and pursue a career in journalism.

In 1972, I got an opportunity to work as an apprentice Sub-Editor of Bangla daily Dainik Bangladesh published from Bogra, when I, had to mostly translate the English version national and international news (received through tele-printer) in to Bangla. Subsequently, I worked as an apprentice Staff Reporter of the daily. In 1975, I was appointed as Rajshahi University Correspondent of The Bangladesh Times. Mr. AZ.M. Enayetullah Khan was then its Editor. Subsequently, I was appointed as an Own Correspondent of the daily.

I have not been in the profession of journalism ever since I resigned as an Own Correspondent of The Bangladesh Times in 1982. Neither have I been able to be in regular contact with the journalist community due to my preoccupation as a Business Executive. So, it was my nephew_Riad Hasan, who phoned me immediately after listening to the BBC radio news on 10th November 2008 evening to inform me about the demise of the weekly Holiday Editor-in-Chief and the daily New Ate Editor Mr. Enayetullah Khan. Riad, who has just completed his MBA from the Dhaka University and is an admirer of Mr. Enayetullah Khan, was aware of my great admiration for Mr. Khan.

I hardly missed the write-ups by Mr. Enayetullah Khan. And, from the press reports, I was aware of Mr. Khan's illness and his on-going treatment in Canada. But, as he used to send write-ups from his sick-bed in Canada for his newspapers in Dhaka, I was under the impression that he was recovering slowly but steadily and would return to Dhaka fully cured in near future. So, the news of his demise came to me as a bolt from the blue and I was deeply saddened. As instantaneous reaction, I lamented: "Alas, the great people don't live at least a century ! The titan has left when the country needed him the most." I told Riad : "I am going to buy all the leading national dailies tomorrow to know the reactions, feelings and sentiments of the people who used to admire Mr. Enayetullah Khan and also of those who were his critics." Next day, I did buy the newspapers and was overwhelmed to read the instantaneous reaction of The Daily Star Editor Mr. Mahfuz Anam, who apparently had political and ideological differences with Mr. Enayetullah but rose above all the differences to give the latter what he well deserved. Mr. Anam duly branded Mr. Enayetullah Khan as the 'icon' of journalism and commented: "He was by far the best among us."

I recall, in mid-1970s, a foreign journal (I do not remember its name) had branded Mr. Enayetullah Khan as "one of the best political writers in South-East Asia." Obviously, Mr. Khan also emerged as one of the best journalists in South-East Asia in the contemporary period.

Since last few days, I have been feeling an ever-increasing urge to write something about late Mr. A.Z.M. Enayetullah Khan. But being aware of his professional and human qualities, I am in a dilemma of what to write about the great son of the soil who had multi-dimensional talents and succeeded in every career he had pursued.

All through his life, Mr. Enayetullah Khan had been committed and consistent to the ethics, ideals and practices of objective journalism. He pursued journalism with extraordinary courage and honesty. He did not hesitate to write the naked truth. He was not only one of the pioneers, but also a trend-setter in English journalism in the country. Writing to him was a passion and not merely a profession. He could produce a master-piece write-up within no time. Over the time, he had become an idol in the domain of journalism. In fact, Mr. A.Z.M. Enayetullah Khan and journalism, particularly English journalism in Bangladesh, had become synonymous.

Mr. Enayetullah was a patriot, broad minded and magnanimous. He was above all a nationalist who loved his country and the people. He never compromised with secular democratic principles. He was bold against any kind of religious fundamentalism in politics.

During past several years, I happened to meet Mr. Enayetullah Khan on several occasions, particularly in the diplomatic parties in Dhaka. I noticed him to be the centre of attraction in all parties and the social gatherings. The host and the invitees used to gather around him to hear his views on national and international issues. People used to be impressed apparently by his personality, knowledge, making a point and way of talking.

Although Mr. Enayetullah had political and ideological differences with many, they have, after his death, risen above all the differences to give him the respect and the love that he earned and deserved. He will live on in the hearts of his readers, associates and admirers. I pray that the Holiday and the New Age founded by him, survive for ever to keep his memories alive and as reminders of his contributions to the country, the people and journalism. I am optimistic that the journalist community as a whole, will carry forward the mission for welfare of the country, the people, the freedom of expression and the dignity of journalism for which Mr. Enayetullah fought all his life.

To pay my tribute to late Mr. Enayetullah Khan, or Mintu Bhai, the name by which he was popularly known, I would like to reminisce a memory :

It was in 1976, about a week ahead of the historic Farakka Long March. I was then the Rajshahi University Correspondent of The Bangladesh Times and President of the Rajshahi University Journalists' Association. I phoned Mintu Bhai, then Editor of The Bangladesh Times at his office in Dhaka to know whether he would come to Rajshahi on the occasion of the Farakka Long March. He sounded very excited and enthusiastic. He told me he would arrive at Rajshahi at least a couple of days before the long march would start.

Arrived at the Rajshahi Circuit House in the afternoon of the appointed day. I, together with The Bangladesh Times Rajshahi Correspondent Mr. Anjum Ferdous, received Mintu Bhai at the Circuit House. He was in his traditional khaddar punjabi and jeans trouser. His punjabi was completely drenched by his sweat as he had personally driven his car all the way from Dhaka to Rajshahi. But he was so excited and enthusiastic that, to my surprise, without taking any food or rest after such a long drive, Mintu Bhai told me : "Now I would like to call on Maulana Shaheb (Maulana Abdul Hamid Khan Bhasani) and then visit the marchers wherever they have gathered in the city to take part in the historic Farakka Long March. I want you to lead me."

I, together with Mr. Anjum Ferdous and the driver, drove straight to the Advocate's residence (I do not remember the Advocate's name) in a jeep provided exclusively for The Bangladesh Times team by the Rajshahi District Administration to cover the Farakka Long March. Mintu Bhai, accompanied by Mr. Anwar Hossain Monju, followed us in his car. After meeting Maulana Shaheb, we all visited each and every place where the excited and enthusiastic marchers from all over the country had gathered.

An excited and enthusiastic Mintu Bhai talked to the marchers and enquired about their feelings and sentiments in respect of the ensuing long march.

At night, when we all returned to the Circuit House, Mintu Bhai sounded and looked even more excited and enthusiastic about the long march scheduled to start after a couple of days following a mammoth public meeting at the Rajshahi Madrasa Maidan to be addressed by Maulana Bhasani. I could sense the highest degree of patriotism of Mintu Bhai. He spoke mostly of patriotism.

Meanwhile, The Bangladesh Times team from Dhaka, comprising Special Correspondent Amin Ahmed Chowdhury, Assistant Editor Mustafa Jasim Ahmed and Senior Staff Photographer Rafiqur Rahman, arrived at Rajshahi to cover the long march.

The Bangladesh Times team was the biggest among the local and foreign media teams to cover the long march. Apparently, this was because of the importance Mintu Bhai, as the Times Editor, had attached to the Farakka Long March - a historic event drawing international attention.

As planned by Mintu Bhai, the Times team from Dhaka left Rajshahi city early next morning for a visit to the Bangladesh-India border areas. They returned to the city in the afternoon and reported their findings to Mintu Bhai, who asked them to write the news story and send it telegraphically to the Times Dhaka office with a note that "The Editor has okayed this." Mintu Bhai, being the competent Editor of the state-run national daily, was sure that the daily's News Editor in Dhaka office would need the Editor's approval to publish the sensitive news story that it was.

The next day's issue of The Bangladesh Times carried on the front page an exclusive news item titled "India amasses troops along border" to the envy of all other local and foreign media representatives who had gathered at Rajshahi to cover the Farakka Long March, but apparently did not conceive the idea of making such a news item.

Though Mintu Bhai was the Editor of The Bangladesh Times, his feelings and magnanimity were not limited to the Times staffers only. In fact, he had strong feelings and sentiments for the journalist community as a whole. This was duly demonstrated when, learning that no transport was available for the· Dainik Bangla staffers, who had gathered at Rajshahi to cover the long march, Mintu Bhai urged me to let the Dainik BangIa staffers share the jeep earmarked for the Times team.

On the Farakka Long March day, Maulana Bhasani addressed a mammoth public meeting at the Rajshahi Madrasa maidan prior to leading the long march.

Sensing that most of the marchers were in a mood to march to the "Farakka Barrage" itself, located in the Indian territory, the Maulana, in his address, made it absolutely clear that the long march would continue only up to the border and definitely not beyond the Bangladesh territory. He warned the marchers not to infiltrate into the Indian territory. The meeting over, the march led by the Maulana, started.

Mintu Bhai and the Times team had covered the march and returned to Rajshahi Circuit House in the evening. After washing his face and having a cup of tea, Mintu Bhai told me: "Shahed, go to Atiq (Atiqul Alam of BBC) and tell him that I have requested him to give me his typewriter." I complied with his request and so did Mr. Atiqul Alam. After finishing with his typewriter, Mr. Atiq offered it to Mintu Bhai, who told me: "You people write your stories and come back to me before you go to the telegram office to file your stories."

When I returned to Mintu Bhai about a couple of hours later, he gave me his write-up to be sent to the Bangladesh Times office. By midnight, all our news stories as well as the write-up of Mintu Bhai were sent telegraphically to the Times office in Dhaka.

Next morning, around 11 0'clock, Mintu Bhai asked me when the newspapers from Dhaka usually arrive at Rajshahi. As desired by him, I rushed in the afternoon to the newspaper Agent in the city and bought several copies of the Times. Back in the Circuit House, I gave a copy of the paper to Mintu Bhai , who had been anxiously waiting for it. While going through his write-up, Mintu Bhai occasionally uttered "Uooh" which, I was later told by him, was to express his annoyance for replacement of words in his write-up. The Bangladesh Times Dhaka office chose words, apparently because of the typing (telegraphic) error. However, what amazed me was the sharp memory of Mintu Bhai, who remembered the words he had chosen and used in his write-up.

Later, as I read Mintu Bhai' s write-up titled "Palassy to signal victory this time" which covered almost 75% space of both the front and the back pages of the Times, I was overwhelmed to discover the depth of his knowledge, his ability to conceive ideas as well as his flare in writing. I wondered how, in about an hour and a half, he could conceive ideas and the context and produce the unique masterpiece write-up, which would have taken some writers hours or even days to write and that also with a quality not near to what he had written. I would like to retain this image of him as long as I live - a brilliant Mintu Bhai producing an unique masterpiece write-up within no time.

Mintu Bhai had been true to his words "The Holiday. Because life isn't" which appear on the front page of the weekly Holiday. In reality, he did not have a holiday; he kept on writing even from his sick-bed in Canada.

Mintu Bhai, writing about you has been a great honour for me. May your soul rest in peace.