The New Nation - Internet Edition

Asif Haroon Raja

Sri Lanka is suffering the pangs of civil war for a long time and there are no prospects of a peace process resuming soon. On 2 January 2008, the government announced its withdrawal from a ceasefire agreement with the LTTE. This formalised a return to conflict that has been underway since 2006 but has also presaged worse to come. The humanitarian crisis is deepening, abuses of human rights by both sides are increasing, and those calling for peace are being silenced. There is no present chance of a new ceasefire or negotiations since the government, despite pro forma statements in favour of a political solution, is dependent on hardliners and appears intent on a military decision.

In addition to heavy fighting in the north, the dawn of 2008 saw the assassinations of a government minister and a Tamil opposition member of parliament, multiple bombings in Colombo, a wave of deadly attacks on civilians in the majority Sinhalese south, and widespread disappearances and killings of non-combatants in the north and east. More than 5,000 combatants and civilians are estimated to have been killed over the past two years. At least 140,000 have fled intensified fighting in the north, and more are likely to be forced out if the military continues its push into Tiger controlled territory. If the government's military approach in the east is a precedent for its conduct of the northern campaign, civilians and their property are at grave risk.

Much of the blame for the resumption in violence lies with the LTTE; its ceasefire violations and abuses of the population under its control pushed the government towards war. The Tiger strategy to shore up internal support by provoking a Sinhala nationalist reaction worked but the insurgents may come to regret their approach. President Mahinda Rajapaksa has also overplayed his hand. Relying on support from Sinhalese extremists, he has let them set an agenda that allows only for a military approach.

The military and much of the government leadership believe they can defeat or permanently weaken the Tigers by the end of 2008. The LTTE has been badly hurt over the past 18 months; it has lost the areas it controlled in the Eastern Province; its arms routes have been disrupted; hundreds, perhaps thousands of its fighters have been killed and senior commanders are now vulnerable to targeted elimination, either from air force bombs or Special Forces. But the Tigers remain a formidable fighting force. While the army has been inching forward in the north, they are fighting back from well defended positions. Even assuming the Tigers can be defeated militarily, it remains unclear how he government would pacify and control the large Tamil-speaking areas in the north that have been under LTTE domination for a decade or more.

The government argues its military campaign will clear the way for a political solution. Vowing to eradicate terrorism, it says it aims to destroy the Tigers or force them to disarm and enter democratic politics and negotiations along side other Tamil and Muslim parties. But after promising for more than a year to undertake substantial constitutional reforms once the All Parties Representative Committee (APRC) recommended them, it now proposes only to 'fully implement' the constitution long-existing 13th Amendment. The limited devolved powers for the north and east that this would represent are unlikely even in the best case to be sufficient to win over many Tamils or Muslims, though they could be a useful start if implemented sincerely. Since President Rajapaksa has chosen to depend strongly on Sinhala nationalist parties for his government's survival, however, this seems unlikely.

Meanwhile, ethnic divisions are deepening. The humanitarian costs of the war are concentrated in Tamil speaking areas. In Colombo, security forces have conducted large, often indiscriminate arrests of Tamils under emergency regulations. But Muslims are under pressure from both the Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Puligal (TNVP)), a parliamentary group which broke from the Tigers and operates with the government blessing, and government-sponsored land and administrative changes. The much touted 'liberation' of the Eastern Province has failed to bring development or democracy; instead it has been characterised by military rule and rising ethnic tensions. The TNVP will have to be reined in if the government intends to ensure the success of its democratic experiment in the east ahead of the series of elections scheduled in next March.

The human rights and governance crisis continues unabated, with paralysis of the institutions empowered to investigate and prosecute, and consequent impunity for abusers. The many ad hoc commissions of inquiry of the past two years have accomplished nothing. Disappearances and political killings continue unabated, especially in Jaffna and other parts of the troubled north. Both the Tigers and the TMVP continue to recruit and make use of child soldiers, despite repeated pledges to UN agencies and others not to.

The current conflict is worse than what preceded the 2002 ceasefire. The government counter insurgency campaign is more brutal and indiscriminate. Likewise, the terror and criminal activities of its Tamil proxy forces more extensive and blatant and the role of chauvinistic Sinhala ideologues in government more pronounced. The suspected involvement of pro-government forces in assassinations of Tamil politicians is particularly disturbing. The Tigers have fully militarised life in areas under their control and returned to brutal attacks on Sinhalese civilians, intent on provoking even worse retaliations.

Eelam war is now in its final phase. The Sri Lankan army chief Sarath Fonseka declared that his forces had wiped out the conventional military capability of LTTE and that the rebels were left with no other option but to resort to low intensity hit and run tactics. Sri Lankan Defence Secretary Gotabhya Rajapakse stated that the last two bastions of LTTE at Mullativi and Kilinochchi would be liberated by end December. He was also optimistic that the rebel controlled Wanni would be seized soon. Lankan troops are now about 15 km southwest of LTTE political capital of Kilinochchi. Heavy fighting is taking place at Akkarayankulam and Iranamadu areas.

In the wake of continued reversals in Jaffna, all-party leaders meeting was convened by the Tamil Nadu chief minister Karunanidi in Chennai on 14 October. The meeting urged the government of India to take immediate steps to stop the war and restore peace and normalcy in Jaffna and to stop arms assistance immediately.

They threatened that all the parliamentarians from Tamil Nadu would resign enmasse if India refused to cede to their demands. They sought assistance from international organisations such as Red Cross to intercede and provide relief on humanitarian grounds.

On 22 October, LTTE struck back against a major government offensive by ramming three explosives-laden boats against two merchant ships off the northern coast which were supplying food to the besieged Jaffna peninsula. The ships were duly escorted by navy troops. One ship was crippled while the other was damaged. The ethnic guerrillas also fought a sea battle with naval units defending the port of Kankesanthurai on the peninsula.

It was in context with expediting the delivery of much needed munitions from Pakistan that Gotabhya had scheduled his four-day visit to Islamabad from 21-24 October. His visit however was abruptly cancelled at the eleventh hour because of unscheduled visit of Indian Foreign Minster to Colombo starting 21 October. India exerted diplomatic pressure to put off the visit of the Defence Secretary to Pakistan emphasising that important matters related to defence and foreign affairs were required to be discussed. It indicates acute sensitivity of New Delhi about hobnobbing among neighbours particularly with Pakistan. India continues with its bullying tactics to keep its neighbours intimidated. However, irrespective of India's harassment, Pakistan-India relations remain on firm grounds and both are committed to protect each others interests..