The New Nation - Internet Edition

AP, Washington

Democrats are on track for sizable gains in both houses of Congress on Nov. 4, according to strategists in both parties, although only improbable Southern victories can produce the 60-vote Senate majority they covet to help them pass priority legislation.

A poor economy, President Bush's unpopularity, a lopsided advantage in fundraising and Barack Obama's robust organizational effort in key states are all aiding Democrats in the final days of the congressional campaign.

"I don't think anybody realized it was going to be this tough" for Republicans, Sen. John Ensign, chairman of the party's senatorial campaign committee said recently. "We're dealing with an unpopular president (and) we have a financial crisis," he added.

"You've got Republican incumbent members of the Congress" trying to run away from Bush's economic policies, said Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen, who chairs the House Democratic campaign committee. "And they can't run fast enough. I think it will catch up with many of them."

Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California predicted recently that Democrats would win at least 14 House seats in Republican hands.

But numerous strategists in both parties agreed a gain of at least 20 seems likely and a dozen or more GOP-held seats are in doubt. Only a handful of Democratic House seats appear in any sort of jeopardy. They spoke only on condition of anonymity, saying they were relying on confidential polling data.

Meanwhile, Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain has grown to 12 points in the US presidential race, with crucial independent and female voters increasingly moving to his side, according to the latest poll.

With less than two weeks before the November 4 election, Senator Obama leads Senator McCain 52 per cent to 40 per cent among likely voters in the latest three-day tracking poll, which had a margin of error of 2.9 points.

Senator Obama has made steady gains over the past four days and has tripled his lead on Senator McCain in the past week of polling.

"Obama's expansion is really across the board," pollster John Zogby said. "It seems to be among almost every demographic group."

The Illinois Senator saw his lead among women - who are expected to play a decisive role in this election - increase to 18 points from 16 points.

And independent voters, who have been the target of intense campaign efforts by both sides, have now swung behind Senator Obama by a 30-point margin, 59 per cent to 29 per cent.

Mr Zogby said Senator McCain, 72, appeared to have lost the traction he won after the third and final presidential debate last week.

"McCain can still try to turn it around, but he has to find focus," Mr Zogby said, adding that economic issues, which dominated the campaign amid turmoil in the credit, housing and financial markets, still appeared to be working in Senator Obama's favor.

Other recent national polls have given Senator Obama a narrower lead, but Mr Zogby said he was confident in his sampling methods.