The New Nation - Internet Edition

bdnews24.com, Dhaka

A former central banker says Bangladesh could benefit in some ways if the global economic crisis does not linger beyond a year.

"It may lead to lower inflation. And because of the crisis affecting the investment climate in developed countries, laundered money may even find its way back to Bangladesh," Khondoker Ibrahim Khaled, a former Bangladesh Bank deputy governor, said Wednesday.

"If such money comes back, the authorities should consider relaxing investment rules," said Khaled, who also ran government-owned Sonali Bank as managing director.

Speaking at a discussion hosted by the Economic Reporters' Forum, Khaled, now chairman of the state-owned Krishi (agricultural) Bank, said the state of emergency slowed the local economy to the point that there had been no growth at all.

"Our share market is unlikely to suffer any sudden crisis. Because the volume of foreign investment is very low, and the global crisis has virtually nothing to do with such markets."

He said exports and remittance were unlikely to be affected.

"Exports will not suffer because of the crisis as garments (the type Bangladesh exports) are a product considered to be a necessity. "And 80 per cent of our (migrant) workers are based in the Middle East. The nature of their jobs will ensure they will not be affected by the economic crisis," Khaled said.

"If a few Bangladeshis lose jobs in Europe and North America and return, there won't be much impact on remittance. There may be some social impact."

But economics professor Wahiduddin Mahmud said he believed external trade could be exposed to the crisis in the longer run.

Mahmud said the local commercial banks must be careful about "risky" lending.

"Consumer credit has to be stopped through enactment of law," said Mahmud, who teaches economics at Dhaka University.

The head of the largest exporters' group came up with three proposals for Bangladesh to steer clear of the crisis path.

"Build workforce, reduce prices of oil and fix two different exchange rates for export and import," said Anwar-ul-Alam Chowdhury Pervez.

DSE CEO Professor Salehuddin Ahmed, CPD executive director Mostafizur Rahman were among those who also spoke.