The New Nation - Internet Edition

Reuters, Colombo

Indian political pressure on Sri Lanka to throttle back an offensive to wipe out the Tamil Tigers will do little to sway a Sri Lankan government increasingly confident it can end one of Asia's longest insurgencies. Despite threats from Tamil politicians at home, India is loath to repeat its disastrous 1980s intervention in the war on its doorstep, leaving Sri Lanka free to wage a military campaign that has energised President Mahinda Rajapaksa's political base.

"The military is very unlikely to stop now, because this is the government's key political agenda item," said Maria Kuusisto, an analyst with Eurasia Group. "Now when they have gone this far, to backtrack would be a negative." India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh this week expressed concern at the escalation in the conflict, which has raged on and off for 25 years, and called for a negotiated settlement.

Singh's comments, which echoed India's existing diplomatic stance, were described by analysts as pre-election manoeuvres by a government that must call a national poll by May 2009.

The Indian leader is under pressure from his administration's southern allies in Tamil Nadu state, where the mainly Tamil population accuses largely Sinhalese Sri Lanka of trying to wipe out the island's Tamils.

And despite his criticism, Singh also endorsed Sri Lanka's position that the country must not allow the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) to split the Indian Ocean island nation in two, nor tolerate the actions of a group on U.S., EU and Indian terrorism lists.

"India loves to play all sides, and has always done that," said Reva Bhalla, an analyst with the U.S. private intelligence firm Stratfor.