The New Nation - Internet Edition

Dr. M. S. Haq

In Bangladesh, lots of debate, discussion and forecasting about anticipated national election in December this year (2008) have been going on for quite some time now at various societal levels, per se. While the army supported government is visibly determined to hold the election in December, concerns are being raised by different quarters over outcomes of current election efforts against the backdrop of moving realities and increasing suspicions in pertinent areas.

A few of the factors associated with the present day concerns are:

1. Whether or not national election - 2008 will be held or could be held on the date announced by the army-supported government on account of reasons both within and beyond the control of Bangladesh?

2. Whether or not the outcome of election will lead to a timely and smooth transfer of power to legitimate representatives of people of Bangladesh - to the satisfaction of majority of Bangladeshis?

3. What are unknown - I mean unknown to people of Bangladesh - ambitions, expectations, plans, programs, strategies and goals of the army supported government and others in relation to the election and in relation to anticipated developments that could take place before the election or after the election or both?

4. Whether or not developments like political instabilities, economic instabilities, instabilities in terms of security and governance and other types of instability, as appropriate - before the election or during the election or after the election could be used as a pretext, whether or not acceptable to the majority of people of Bangladesh, friends of Bangladesh (including inter alia the US), neighbors of Bangladesh (including inter alia India), development partners of Bangladesh (including inter alia the World Bank) and others for legitimization of a direct military rule in the country in the future; or those developments including their outcomes would become a costly but meaningful thrust for pushing the country towards a popular and people-centered democratic rule in the future or otherwise?

5. What will be the impact of efforts (etc.) of army supported government towards protecting them and their deeds from the say, any scrutiny of the next government on for example, the design, the content, the configuration, the behavior and the work dynamics of the latter government?

In light of above, it now appears, among other things, if the election is held in Bangladesh as scheduled, it could then be held on the basis of a framework (for an instance) capable of accommodating and sustaining (at least initially) a variety of interest of various parties - the army supported government and their supporters; political parties including inter alia AL, BNP, JI and JP; civil society; friends, partners, and neighbors of Bangladesh; and concerned others. I would like to call the framework - the interest matrix of election (IME). IME would be vital for inter alia determining or navigating or influencing or harnessing or managing or dealing otherwise with: the critical path to election; the achievement of election goals; election related opportunities; election or no-election in December 2008; plurality in election; successes or failures of the election - in varying degrees and against a variety of parameters, though; post-election outcomes and their impact on subsequent transfer of the power; to mention a few.

Given the nature and scope of ongoing election related activities and their outcome so far in Bangladesh, the effort towards IME, acceptable to concerned parties, is apparently in-progress.

The army-supported government is perhaps evaluating and re-evaluating for example, where their comparative, competitive and other advantages lie in the foreseeable future vis-à-vis the country's political parties - whether it is AL and its coalition partners or whether it is ruling BNP-Jamat coalition in the immediate past; or whether it is emerging civil society groups or any combination of above parties.

It is possible AL & Co led parliament could appear, at this point in time, to be more advantageous to Bangladesh - in terms of protecting, preserving and promoting gains made so far by the army supported government, initiatives undertaken by the army supported government and matters pertaining to indemnity, to mention a few - than that of BNP & Co, the direct or indirect beneficiaries of their government in the immediate past constitute largely top brasses of present day army supported government - - or vice versa. Or even a parliament of national unity in that respect. It is anticipated the quantity and the quality of party (I mean political parties) successes in creating, sustaining and promoting appropriate niche in the election market could dominate inter alia outcomes of this year's election.

It may be noted here: whether or not BNP, AL and other political parties would participate in the election would depend on inter alia: as to how and to what extent, they would be able to perceive their comparative, competitive and other advantages at individual, collective and other levels and harness those advantages in their favor - all in relation to the election, per se. Further, elements of opportunism could have a greater role to play in this year's election, among other things.

I believe people of Bangladesh would like to see a peaceful transfer of the power through a pro-people and meaningful election in the country, facilitating, among other things, the path towards an incremental and equitable progress and prosperity for all Bangladeshis and for people of the world large - at individual, collective and other levels - on a continuous basis. In that respect, I also believe friends of Bangladesh, neighbors of Bangladesh, development partners of Bangladesh and concerned others are ready to help further people of Bangladesh in number of ways, for an instance. The last word: a properly negotiated IME could be instrumental in, among other things, opening the grand door for democracy in the country and successes thereof in the foreseeable future. Let us work towards that.