The New Nation - Internet Edition

Dealing with economic crisis fallouts

IN the wake of the world economic crisis, there are fears about its impacts on the Bangladesh economy. Experts see waves of adverse impacts of the recession. Terming the US economic crash as 'financial tsunami' Nobel laureate Dr Yunus notes that the crisis has engulfed the world economy. He has observed that the crisis would knock Bangladesh economy soon and the poorest people would be the worst sufferers. World Bank President Robert Zoellick also noted that the costs of the crisis for the poor could be lifelong. Professor Yunus apprehended that the export-oriented apparel industry and the expatriate workers would be the prime affected sectors.

Officials of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, however, ruled out the possibility of such impacts. Basing their arguments on the fact that Bangladesh has got only 2.5 percent of foreign portfolio investment, they observed that the ongoing global economic recession would in no way affect Bangladesh's stock market. But such observation does not seem to rest upon sound logic. Their observation came amid a sharp fall in the DSE index. This shows that the national economy is not immune from the global crises.

There is no scope of remaining complacent when the world economy is convulsing under the impact of the crisis. Any reckless argument or action may lead to grave economic disaster. The national economy had not been buoyant in recent years. The managers of the national economy must always keep watchful eyes on the day-to-day developments in the world arena and must have preparations to tackle the situation. A task force must monitor every turn of events and suggest adjustment of policy measures. The task of protecting the national economy should be taken on a war footing.

Rehabilitation that remains elusive

THE interim government's pledge to rehabilitate some 60,000 slum dwellers remains unimplemented after more than a year and a half of their eviction from makeshift squats in the capital city as reported recently by media. According to reports, the process has stuck in a bureaucratic tangle despite instructions from the higher authority for expediting it. Lists of probable rehabilitation sites were sent with the suggestion to select the place that is suitable for the purpose to the relevant authorities. The government-appointed rehabilitation committee suggested probable sites twice, but the ministry concerned repeatedly expressed its 'inability' to give the land for rehabilitation of the evicted poor people.

Immediately after the takeover of the administration by the interim government in January 2007, the joint forces demolished 33 slums on government lands in the capital city rendering the inmates homeless. In the face of strong protest by different sections of the people against the eviction before arranging any alternative shelters, the authorities stopped the drive in late February 2007 and assured rehabilitation of the evicted slum people. Accordingly, a rehabilitation committee was formed to suggest the measures and expedite the work following the pledge made by the chief adviser.

After the need assessment, the eight-member committee comprising government officials and development activists selected 120 acres of land where the evicted slum people could be relocated. The housing and public works ministry however, expressed its inability to spare the land for the purpose. It rather offered seven acres of land in another place in Mirpur and Mohakhali areas for the rehabilitation programme. Later this offer was dropped and the ministry could offer only five acres of land somewhere in Mirpur for the purpose. Since then there has been no progress at all in this regard.

Factors influencing anticipated national election

Dr. M. S. Haq

In Bangladesh, lots of debate, discussion and forecasting about anticipated national election in December this year (2008) have been going on for quite some time now at various societal levels, per se. While the army supported government is visibly determined to hold the election in December, concerns are being raised by different quarters over outcomes of current election efforts against the backdrop of moving realities and increasing suspicions in pertinent areas.

A few of the factors associated with the present day concerns are:

1. Whether or not national election - 2008 will be held or could be held on the date announced by the army-supported government on account of reasons both within and beyond the control of Bangladesh?

2. Whether or not the outcome of election will lead to a timely and smooth transfer of power to legitimate representatives of people of Bangladesh - to the satisfaction of majority of Bangladeshis?

3. What are unknown - I mean unknown to people of Bangladesh - ambitions, expectations, plans, programs, strategies and goals of the army supported government and others in relation to the election and in relation to anticipated developments that could take place before the election or after the election or both?

4. Whether or not developments like political instabilities, economic instabilities, instabilities in terms of security and governance and other types of instability, as appropriate - before the election or during the election or after the election could be used as a pretext, whether or not acceptable to the majority of people of Bangladesh, friends of Bangladesh (including inter alia the US), neighbors of Bangladesh (including inter alia India), development partners of Bangladesh (including inter alia the World Bank) and others for legitimization of a direct military rule in the country in the future; or those developments including their outcomes would become a costly but meaningful thrust for pushing the country towards a popular and people-centered democratic rule in the future or otherwise?

5. What will be the impact of efforts (etc.) of army supported government towards protecting them and their deeds from the say, any scrutiny of the next government on for example, the design, the content, the configuration, the behavior and the work dynamics of the latter government?

In light of above, it now appears, among other things, if the election is held in Bangladesh as scheduled, it could then be held on the basis of a framework (for an instance) capable of accommodating and sustaining (at least initially) a variety of interest of various parties - the army supported government and their supporters; political parties including inter alia AL, BNP, JI and JP; civil society; friends, partners, and neighbors of Bangladesh; and concerned others. I would like to call the framework - the interest matrix of election (IME). IME would be vital for inter alia determining or navigating or influencing or harnessing or managing or dealing otherwise with: the critical path to election; the achievement of election goals; election related opportunities; election or no-election in December 2008; plurality in election; successes or failures of the election - in varying degrees and against a variety of parameters, though; post-election outcomes and their impact on subsequent transfer of the power; to mention a few.

Given the nature and scope of ongoing election related activities and their outcome so far in Bangladesh, the effort towards IME, acceptable to concerned parties, is apparently in-progress.

The army-supported government is perhaps evaluating and re-evaluating for example, where their comparative, competitive and other advantages lie in the foreseeable future vis-à-vis the country's political parties - whether it is AL and its coalition partners or whether it is ruling BNP-Jamat coalition in the immediate past; or whether it is emerging civil society groups or any combination of above parties.

It is possible AL & Co led parliament could appear, at this point in time, to be more advantageous to Bangladesh - in terms of protecting, preserving and promoting gains made so far by the army supported government, initiatives undertaken by the army supported government and matters pertaining to indemnity, to mention a few - than that of BNP & Co, the direct or indirect beneficiaries of their government in the immediate past constitute largely top brasses of present day army supported government - - or vice versa. Or even a parliament of national unity in that respect. It is anticipated the quantity and the quality of party (I mean political parties) successes in creating, sustaining and promoting appropriate niche in the election market could dominate inter alia outcomes of this year's election.

It may be noted here: whether or not BNP, AL and other political parties would participate in the election would depend on inter alia: as to how and to what extent, they would be able to perceive their comparative, competitive and other advantages at individual, collective and other levels and harness those advantages in their favor - all in relation to the election, per se. Further, elements of opportunism could have a greater role to play in this year's election, among other things.

I believe people of Bangladesh would like to see a peaceful transfer of the power through a pro-people and meaningful election in the country, facilitating, among other things, the path towards an incremental and equitable progress and prosperity for all Bangladeshis and for people of the world large - at individual, collective and other levels - on a continuous basis. In that respect, I also believe friends of Bangladesh, neighbors of Bangladesh, development partners of Bangladesh and concerned others are ready to help further people of Bangladesh in number of ways, for an instance. The last word: a properly negotiated IME could be instrumental in, among other things, opening the grand door for democracy in the country and successes thereof in the foreseeable future. Let us work towards that.

RMG sector fears potential threat

Md. Masum Billah

Garments industry in Bangladesh stands as the largest foreign remittance earner . It is striving to retain its leading position in this field and the people concerned are working untiringly. Government is also working hard to reach the goal. But some unhappy events have emerged as potential threats in this sector. It calls for more attention in the greater interest of our national economy. Discontentment and frustration among RMG workers have been prevailing for long in the sector and there might be an outburst any time paralyzing the sector. Necessary steps need to be taken before any serous destabilization.

BGMEA will monitor whether all the garments have the capability to fulfill the tripartite contacts signed in 2006. if not, the workers working in those factories will be apprised of the genuine condition and asked if they are ready to work in this situation. The question of manipulation and deception should be erased from this sector. When the workers agree to work in the real situation explained to them, no third party could intervene. They will work for the betterment of the industry. When it will see better days, the workers will also enjoy more facilities. The owners will not be allowed to employ new people throwing them out. BGMEA also have to monitor the thriving garments units must pay the salary and benefits to the workers as per conditions. The security reasons must be established from three points of view. First, the garments itself should arrange ample security, second BGMEA and third government. There must be intelligence units from the government to see why and how the unruliness happen.

Due to security reasons 870 garments were threatened to be closed in the month of September sending ten lakh workers unemployed and 70% of them women. On September 6, 91 garment owners of Gazipur met BGMEA president and told him their decision to close down the industry. "To corner the government this decision was taken"--some worker leaders opined. If it had been done, it would exercise impact on politics. Arrear bill, salary, overtime, peace rate, sacking workers, high price of essentials, leave, bonus, tiffin stand as the main reasons of anarchy in the garments sector. Some of these issues are small which could be resolved easily. While ome of them are big enough and they call for BGMEA and government intervention. Combined garments Labour Federation president-Nazma Akter said, " Closing garment industries will not show the solution." Out of 25 lakh garments workers in Bangladesh ten lakh at Gazipur. Due to burning situation in many garment factories during the month of September many foreign buyers took back 50% order causing lakhs of dollars everyday. The figure definitely tells a colossal amount. I think everybody's interest is concerned here. President of Bangladesh Jano Swadhin Garment Worker leader Advocate Delwar Hossain Khan said, " Owners have taken this decision just to create pressure on government and to get several benefits from the government. Fulfilling the rights of lbaourers and not to suppress them hold the solution." Actually e must give consideration to worker's interest, owner's interest and above all nation's interest.

Export promotion Bureau said, " 2007-2008 financial year Bangladesh earned from this sector 516 crore 72 lakh dollar. Whereas 40% garments of the country already closed due to various problems. During first six months of this year 155 garments closed down showing an evil omen to our economic sector. Experts have already given their opinions that both local and overseas pinching and incitement cause anarchy in this sector. If it is the case, government intelligence must be employed here to find out the exact and right clues.

Disinterest to invest in this sector by Banks is going down the price of garments in the international market, failure to cope with neigbouring countries in exchanging currencies , gas and electricity shut down suddenly-are other problems in this sector. Garment owners are to depend on various ministries which prove difficult, they clamor for a new ministry. Of course, developing a new ministry does not necessarily mean the qualitative change. In this respect we can cite the example of Jute Ministry.

It failed to retain the glorious past of jute though the ministry was established with this objective.

Sramabikash Kendra, a platform of RMG workers formed a human chain in front of the High Court on September 24 demanding implementation of tripartite agreement among the government, RMG workers and garment owners signed in 2006. About 70% garments of a total of 4500 garments across the country pay Tk 1200 to the workers instead of 1662.50 which was fixed by the deal . If workers demand salary as per the deal owners of the factories threaten to lay off the factories. Worker leaders demanded steps by the government to sell the property of the factory owners who laid off their factories without paying workers dues. Worker leaders must be pragmatic and considerate enough . They must not incite the workers or guided by the worker leader like the former Soviet Union.the worker leaders of USSR contributed a great deal to close down many of her industries . National Alliance for Protection of Garment workers and Industries at Dhaka Reporters' Unity demanded seven points---payment of 50% dearness allowance until the minimum wage of RMG workers is fixed by the wage board, lifting all sorts of restrictions on trade union activities, arrest and punishment to the garment owners who violated the labour and Laws and payment of arrear bills of workers. Only receiving benefits through the exploitation of cheap labour is a crime. So, extending maximum and relevant opportunities to the workers is a must.

If possible there should be provision for contributory provident fund for the workers and gratuity. The already established garments industries may make it easily. If it is done, the workers will own their work otherwise they will work just for work. And in the sick ones

BGMEA may take the initiative to introduce such kind of facilities for the workers. Their contributory money could be employed in further developing and improving the industries. If the industry is sick and non-profitable and the workers continue to extract more facilities from the owners it will just invite closure of the industries and bring rainy days for the workers and their families. And it also happens that some owners try to bother about their interest only ignoring the facilities of the workers. In order to mediate these two parties there need to be the existence of Trade Union. If the trade union leaders remain busy with making their own fortune at the cost of worker's weakness and loss of the industry, it will bring another disaster and this thing happened where trade union developed. And that experience encourages the people concerned in this sector not establish trade union. But it is also not reasonable. In the absence of trade union or such kind of platform, an autocracy develops which is not desirable.Workers, owners, BGMEA and the government must get involved in resolving the ongoing crisis of RMG sector. Other business communities, economists, intellectuals and all concerned need to take interest and contribute in this sector at least with their good and pragmatic suggestions as it is the most vital fereign remittance earning source today.

New leader for South Africa

Dr.Abdul Ruff

South Africa's ruling African National Congress party (ANC) on 22 Sept named its deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe, left-leaning intellectual who has never sought the limelight, as head of state until elections are held in seven months' time after President Thabo Mbeki bowed to pressure and announced his resignation on Sept 21. A spokesman for the ANC parliamentary caucus said after a meeting between the party and lawmakers that "Motlanthe will be the president, not interim, he will be the president of the republic until the election".If confirmed, it would be a meteoric rise for Motlanthe, who only became an MP in May. However he has impeccable ANC credentials; Motlanthe spent much of the 1980s jailed on Ruben Island along with Nelson Mandela. He was made ANC secretary general in 1997 and became the party's number two in December, at the same time as Jacob Zuma was elected party leader.

The new president will hold the post until elections are held in early 2009, which Zuma is widely expected to win.

Party above People?

Thabo Mbeki, 66, who succeeded Nelson Mandela as South African president in June 1999, became the country's first democratically-elected president to be forced out of office before the end of his term. Mbeki resigned over claims of political interference in a corruption case against Zuma. He denies the allegations but said he was stepping down at the request of the ANC in the interests of party unity. Commentators say it was one of the most difficult decisions in the ANC's history. Mbeki announced in a live television address on Sept 21 Sunday that he had tendered his resignation to speaker of parliament Baleka Mbete after his ruling ANC party called for him to step down in the interests of party unity. He said his resignation is "effective from a day that will be determined by the national assembly". The decision would only be announced when parliament meets - at some point in the next week - to vote on the appointment.

The decision came after a week of pressure following a September 12 court ruling that threw out a corruption case against Mbeki's political rival Jacob Zuma, and a judge hinted that Mbeki's government had interfered in the decision to prosecute the ANC chief. But during his television address, Mbeki made an impassioned defense of his position. Neither he nor his cabinet had made any attempt to meddle with the judicial process, he said, and he dismissed any suggestion he had been trying to shape the judgment for his own political ends. The court ruling that all but sealed Mbeki's fate also cleared Zuma of corruption charges, paving the way for his bid to become South Africa's president in 2009.

The ANC says the call for Mbeki to resign was not an act of retribution, but a bid to unite the party behind one leader ahead of polls next year. Mbeki's term had been due to expire in mid-2009, and he has been largely seen as a lame duck president since losing the leadership of his party to Zuma at a key ANC conference in December. ANC General Secretary Gwede Mantashe said the decision to ask for Mbeki's resignation was taken to avoid divisions in the party. A united ANC, Mantashe says, is good for the country and it ensures that there is certainty and predictability, that is important for the markets. He said Zuma would not take over immediately but would wait for general elections when, if voted in, he would be "a people's president". Mantashe has said the resignation call was not a punishment for Mbeki and that the president would be given the chance to continue his role as mediator in Zimbabwe.

The ANC wanted the current cabinet to stay in place for stability, after speculation Mbeki loyalists may follow him in tendering their resignation. South African newspapers saluted the outgoing president's dignified exit -- but had harsher words for the party that had sacrificed him. A defiant President Mbeki has bowed down from office, proclaiming his innocence while pledging loyalty to the organization that unceremoniously ousted him as head of state," the Star newspaper reported.

The parliament will vote on the president in the next few days. Under the South African constitution, the president is appointed by parliament, which has been dominated by the ANC since the end of apartheid and the start of majority rule in May 1994. South African leader Nelson Mandela fought a long war against apartheid and gained freedom and established the new state and this peaceful transfer of power stands testimony to the leadership quality that Mandela seems to gave espoused to his party people and the decision to change the leadership has been taken by keeping party interests about the people. Undoubtedly the statesmanship of Mandela gets reflected in the ANC decision to accelerate party to the poll. ANC party chief Zuma promised a smooth transition between leaders.

In 2001 President Mbeki had sent his minister of safety and security to accuse three leading members of the party of plotting to oust him. The accused - former ANC secretary-general, Cyril Ramaphosa and two former provincial premiers, Tokyo Sexwale and Mathews Phosa - were among the party's most respected figures. All three were men who had driven to seek their fortunes in business after being marginalized by Mbeki. These three have wielded the knife against Thabo Mbeki.

The ANC is in a formal alliance with two groups on the left, the Communists and the trade union movement, Cosatu. Both were fiercely critical of the neo-liberal economic strategy known as Growth, Employment and Redistribution (Gear) and argued that they had been excluded from its development and implementation. Thabo Mbeki, although a former member of the South African Communist Party, has used conventional economic policies to drive the country's development agenda. This included commitments to open markets, privatization and a favorable investment climate. Tight monetary and budgetary targets have been set and met. The result has been a period of unprecedented economic growth, reaching 5% a year in recent years. The left wings are unhappy with the reckless privatization.

All said and done, certainly it is unprecedented in South African history that a head of state is dismissed in this way. If this shroud political move helps the ANC to win the forthcoming polls, then every thing is well and good.