The New Nation - Internet Edition

Bangladesh's business ranking

ACCORDING to the World Bank's 'Doing Business 2009 Report', Bangladesh's ranking has declined to the 110th position from the previous year's position of 104th despite reforms. Bangladesh was doing well upgrading itself fast in the recent years as 'Doing Business' ranks economies based on 10 indicators that track the time and cost to meet government requirements in starting and operating a business and trading across the borders. The report records the reforms that eased the regulatory burden of doing business in four countries in the South Asian region - Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Sri Lanka - between June 2007 and June 2008.

The World Bank's report was launched through a video-conference connecting Dhaka, Colombo and Islamabad with Washington D.C. In this region, India ranked 122nd, Nepal 121st, Sri Lanka 102nd while Pakistan in the 77th position performed much better in the latest report, the sixth in the series published by the World Bank and International Finance Corporation. Bangladesh's decline in ranking has been attributed to inclusion of new better performing countries and higher pace of reforms in a number of countries during the period. The number of countries considered in the report this year is 181 compared to 160 last year.

Bangladesh could have performed even better in the report at a time when a lot of reforms were being pursued. Some countries are really serious about improving their ranking, so Bangladesh has to compete with them as well. It is rather encouraging to see that for the first time Bangladesh is showing a substantial improvement in as many as three indicators. The focus should now be on swift implementation of the reforms in the pipeline on both the individual level regulatory areas as well as the overall institutional level to improve the climate for doing business.

Women's rights dwindling

ACCORDING to a news report from Sweden, women's rights are dwindling across Europe, anti-globalisation activists warned, blaming growing religious extremism' and 'neo-liberalism'. The trend has been observed across the continent and even in Sweden, a country normally seen as a pioneer in gender equality issues. A backlash has been in recent years in Europe including Sweden, which is known as the most egalitarian country in the world. The decline of women's rights taking place across Europe is being seen clearly in everyday life, the report quoted a French Feminist Initiative Secularity network representative as saying.

In Sweden earlier strides are now being threatened due to politics and legislation following a rise in violence against women. Five years ago, 20,000 acts of violence against women were reported, a number that has since grown to 30,000. According to a social worker of Sweden's second largest city Gothenburg, the 'growing inequality' affects immigrant women in particular. Paradoxically, authorities' desire to display tolerance and respect for immigrants' religions and culture could be accentuating the phenomenon. Blame is on the erosion of values and escalation of violence in line with launching globally of what is called 'war on terror' in which innocent people are becoming victims increasingly.

Another factor is viewed seriously in this context as the conservative forces have more power now following the collapse of communism, and there are more religious schools than five or ten years ago and many express their 'concern of a backlash' in the society. Beside the role of western media as a whole - both print and electronic - in this regard is deplorable as it contributes rather with missionary zeal. Though initiated subtly against immigrants in the context of religion, the overall adverse impact of the move undoubtedly, would be severe in the European society in the long run.

Not to rock the boat

Maswood Alam Khan

The news of the unprecedented 700 billion US Dollar bailout package in the making seems not working yet to allay fears of bankers to open their loan desks to their customers as usual. Or, maybe, the news of the gargantuan bailout package rather fueled more fear for bankers to be more conservative. Whatever is causing whatever, business confidence has depleted greatly around the world and it is certain that economies are fast losing steam!

"World Economic Outlook", published by IMF on last Wednesday, warned that the world economy is heading for a major downturn in the face of the most dangerous shock to rich-countries' financial markets since 1930s. Maybe, this declaration of IMF may again spark another round of bankruptcies of banks and financial institutions out of a false fire alarm or on a rumor that those neighbors' houses are already on fire.

Based on the world economy's gradual downturn as a knock-on effect of the financial tremors being felt in USA and Europe it seems global growth may soon come down to a very slow pace and may very soon send consumers all over the world cringing and shying away from spending their money---a dreary scenario that should send a chill down the spines of finance ministers and the central banks' governors all over the world. Except China---thanks to their robust foreign currency reserves and hedges coupled with natural resilience of the Chinese entrepreneurs and workers---all other developed countries are hard pressed in restoring confidence and order in their economies.

Another disturbing feature is sharp fall in prices of commodities all over the world in quick succession which may sound good for you and me while shopping but that is an ominous and telltale signature that the world economy is sliding towards deflation and ultimately to stagflation which is far worse than inflation. The price of a barrel of crude oil which jumped to about US$ 150 a few months back is now selling at US$ 88. Toyota in USA has offered to buyers of their cars credit at zero percent interest for 15 years. A fall in price in present situation means commodities are there in shops, but buyers are loath to spend money or money has lost its value.

To prod bankers to be liberal in giving credits and to influence borrowers to spend money as usual without getting panicky central banks all over the world are cutting interest rates. On top of that US government is contemplating to do banking business itself---a rarity in the US economic history---by giving loans direct to borrowers bypassing the banks.

All these efforts of the governments and the central banks will undoubtedly thwart the financial cataclysm the world once had experienced in 1929 when the nightmarish depression made a bunch of paper currencies economical to burn as fuel in an oven to cook food instead of buying oil as fuel the same amount of paper currency could afford.

The fiscal stimuli and monetary policies being taken by the governments of the developed countries in North America and Europe may keep their economies buoyant and help their people make both ends meet for a year or two. But, the major blow of the present economic turbulence will be punched on people of the developing countries like Bangladesh in Asia and Brazil in South America who eke out their living by depending on the spending strength of people of the developed world.

Lesser spending by Americans and Europeans on accounts of garments and shrimps means huge job cuts in Bangladesh and lesser spending of Americans on agricultural products like bananas means cruel financial deprivation of many poor Brazilians.

Periodic financial shocks are natural economic phenomena. Such shocks are our lessons for our future preparedness. Too much gossip and wide media coverage---in most cases blended with spices and rumuors---exacerbates the economic stability by shattering public confidence in their respective markets. There is no point in shouting about it!

Like winter coming after summer, like flows coming after ebbs, recession or contraction comes after prosperity or recovery in a pattern what the economists term as business cycle that rotates on 8 or 11 years' cycles. These cycles are made up of four stages, each linked to the variation in prices, production and interest rates.

Economy is in expansion when there is increase in production and when prices are high and when interest rates are low. Economy is in crisis when stock exchanges crack and when bankruptcies of several companies occur. Economy is in recession when both output and price decrease and when interest rates are high. And the economy is in recovery when stocks recover and when incomes rise and when prices fall.

Panic is the first symptom of economic depression. Panic makes people think irrationally and like an infectious disease, panic easily spreads to other people nearby and soon the entire group acts irrationally. Panic out of impending financial calamity may make people stop buying even basic necessities except those for physiological needs out of absurd fears and the whole financial structure based on economic machineries that are dependent on millions of factories producing thousands of products employing billions of people freezes and the recession inevitably looms up.

The whole world is now experiencing a precursor of a financial tsunami. Each and every country and each and every citizen of the world should watch the situation with equanimity and must not behave in a manner that may send fellow neighbors running in panic. Take the Planet Earth as our small boat and we the people of the whole world need to work together. If one country or one person moves suddenly or unwisely the whole boat could rock dangerously and plunge us all into an abysmal depression.

Two sides of the same coin

Asif Haroon Raja

Soon after Partition, apart from irascible hostility of India, Pakistan had to contend with unfriendly Afghanistan. Besides being the only Muslim country to oppose Pakistan's membership to the UN, it had demanded certain parts of Baluchistan and NWFP. It had repudiated all treaties signed between Afghanistan and the British Government before the birth of Pakistan and rejected Durand Line as an international border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. It maintained a consistent hostile policy towards Pakistan and subjected it to vile propaganda and urged the tribes residing on Pakistani side of the Divide to create independent Pakhtunistan. It always provided refuge to dissident and anti-Pakistan elements and supported 1973 insurgency in Baluchistan. Conversely, it always maintained friendly ties with India. It was only during the brief spell of Taliban rule that Pakistan enjoyed cordial relations and its western border became safe and Indian influence waned. The old animosity re-appeared no sooner Taliban regime was replaced with Karzai led regime in Kabul in 2002 and the Indian influence re-emerged in a big way. The Afghan leadership has allowed its soil to be used by foreign agencies for destabilisation of Pakistan.

From 1947 till as late as 2004, Pakistan's north-western tribal belt known as FATA inhabited by highly patriotic tribesmen remained peaceful. The entire length of over 1400 miles long porous and treacherous border was guarded by them and no regular soldier ever entered into this territory. Notwithstanding the unchecked trans-border movement of the ethnically linked tribes living both sides of the border, they never made any compromise on Pakistan's sovereignty. Their courageous role in the three wars with India and during the ten-year Afghan war needs no amplification. Unlike the ANP and certain regional political parties in Baluchistan who had maintained close ties with India and former Soviet Union, the FATA people never cultivated secret links with foreign powers and were ever ready to fight for the cause of Pakistan. They however consider it their moral obligation to come to the rescue of Afghan brethren whenever in distress. They had fought the Soviet forces alongside the Afghan Mujahideen and had given refuge to the displaced Afghans, Chechens, Arabs and other Muslim fighters who had participated in the Afghan war. They had also fought the invading forces at the side of the Taliban in October-November 2001. They had felt equally anguished on the reckless destruction of Afghanistan and had vowed to help the Taliban in pushing out the foreign forces.

When the US and its allies occupied Afghanistan in November 2001 after causing immense destruction and installed non-Pashtun regime led by American stooge Karzai, the Taliban and their leaders sought shelter in Pashtun dominated provinces of Afghanistan while some trickled into the Pashtun belt of Pakistan. They vowed to free their country from the clutches of USA and started to regroup.

Once they began to strike back in 2002 it became obligatory for the Jihadis residing in FATA who had always fought side by side with the Afghans against the aggressors to support them. Once the balance of power started to shift in favour of the Taliban in southern Afghanistan and became difficult for the US-UK troops to contain them, NATO troops were inducted to beef their strength in 2003.

When the army was inducted into FATA in 2003 at the behest of USA to flush out foreigners from South Waziristan inhabited by Wazirs, the locals extended their support. It was when the army expanded its operations towards Mahsud dominated areas and then to North Waziristan and reneged on peace agreements and started to use gunship helicopters and jetfighters resulting in death of innocent civilians that the tribals began to confront the army. Handing over their guests and kinsfolk to USA and tales of torture of prisoners in Guantanamo Bay and in Bagram Base further antagonised them.

They became convinced that the army was fighting its own people at the behest of non-Muslim America to promote its interests. The flames of insurgency have now spread throughout the length and breadth of FATA and have engulfed settled areas of NWFP including its major cities. At present, warlike situation is prevalent in Swat and Bajaur, while Kurram Agency is in the grip of sectarian fire. Khyber Agency is restive where several militant groups have cropped up creating serious law and order problems in the suburbs of Peshawar. Cases of kidnapping for ransom from the capital city are mounting. Kohat tunnel remained closed for over a month and operations in Darra are still continuing to subdue the militants.

Mohmand Agency is turning into yet another battleground while Hangu and Aurakzai Agency are also simmering. Military's hands are full quelling disturbances in several trouble spots but because of foreign interference the fire of militancy is not getting controlled.

The people of FATA are caught up in a nut cracker situation wherein they are suffering at the hands of the army, the militants and US drones. At one time 700,000 people had been rendered homeless and even now over 300,000 residents are living in pathetic conditions in makeshift relief camps.

They are pleading for peace but peace is nowhere in sight. Ongoing anarchic conditions have ruptured the already fragile economy of FATA. The administrative structure that worked under political agent together with the Jirga system that used to preserve law and order and deliver verdicts on all sorts of disputes has since been trampled after the army stepped in and assumed control. Over 600 pro-government Maliks who would help in maintaining semblance of order have mostly been wiped out. The elected FATA MNAs and MPAs do not pick up courage to visit their home towns.

The militants fighting the army are not prepared to ceasefire and surrender arms as demanded by the government. They are killing pro-government tribals and US spies and the army is not in a position to provide security to them.

The cross fire between the militants and the military is resulting in killing and injuring of peaceful residents as well. Collateral damage has increased manifold ever since the army has begun to use jetfighters, choppers, artillery guns and heavy mortars more liberally. To top it all, missiles fired by US Predators are mostly killing innocent men, women and children. So far about 8000 militants have been killed.

Another menace that has surfaced is the mushroom growth of criminal gangs over which the law enforcing agencies have no control. Besides, large numbers of militant groups have emerged in the tribal belt and these are sponsored by foreign agencies to serve their vested interests.

Heavy displacement of the people causing countless hardships together with the loss of lives of the innocent at the hands of security forces and US drones has resulted in the intensification of hatred against the army and USA. They have now realised that the Musharraf regime and the present one under Zardari are two sides of the same coin and that the latter is going one step ahead of the former to please the Americans.

Feeling left out and isolated, more and more volunteers are joining the militants to seek revenge from the ones who have caused them distress. Since the Taliban have made inroads in Punjab as well where most of the banned Jihadi outfits are based, there is a regular flow of volunteers from Punjab particularly from southern Punjab. Some are joining the Taliban from Sindh as well.

Major reasons for the common people gravitating towards the Taliban and growth of terrorism are: One. The rulers are seen as the lackeys of USA, who instead of caring for the people are pleasing USA to safeguard their interests. Two. The Indo-US-Israeli nexus has made up its mind to destroy Islam and replace it with secularism and the secular leaders are helping them in attaining their objective.

The trio is the real axis of evil that has destroyed peace of the world. Four. The West minister system of democracy and governance is inept and Anglo-Saxon system of judiciary corrupt and both are pro-rich. Four. Pak army is on the payroll of USA. Five. The Taliban are simple and God fearing soldiers of Islam and they do not demand material benefits but imposition of Sharia. Six. Justice based on Islam offered by the Taliban is cheap and speedy. Seven. The rulers and the elite class are leading life of opulence and immorality and are insensitive towards the poor. Eight. Osama bin Laden is not a terrorist but a hero since he had sacrificed everything to defend the cause of Islam. Nine. The root cause of terrorism within the Muslim world is unsolved problem of Palestine and Kashmir, America's anti-Islamic and unjust polices and illegal occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq.

These perceptions injected into the minds of the have-nots have helped the Taliban in earning their goodwill and in swelling their strength. Their motivational nodes based on ideological indoctrination and spirit of Jihad turn each member into a diehard Islamist ready to sacrifice his life for the cause of Islam. Devoid of worldly comforts and living under adverse conditions they become hardy, well trained and enthused. It is quite apparent that outside forces are replenishing the militants with arms and ammunition as well as cryptic means of communication enabling them to keep the 150,000 strong military force at bay for the last five years.

Improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and suicide bombers are the main weapons in the armoury of militants to cause maximum damage to military targets. Security troops operating in FATA and Swat have suffered maximum casualties because of IEDs. Greater the loss incurred greater will be the impact made. They have succeeded in motivating and training sizeable number of suicide bombers to attack the chosen targets within high security zones. Reportedly, women have also been trained as in the case of Iraq. Factors of poverty, religion, honour and revenge have enabled the masterminds to enrol suicide bombers.

Lal Masjid massacre propelled the suicide attackers to launch series of attacks against the perpetrators of crime. Some of the important targets hit by them were Tarbela SSG Mess, ISI Hamza Camp, ISI bus, CJCSC House and AMC Lt Gen in Rawalpindi, FIA and Naval College Lahore buildings, air force buses in Sargodha and Badhaber, two attacks on Benazir Bhutto on 18 October and 27 December, and recently POF Wah and Marriott Hotel Islamabad located within Red Zone. Besides, attempts were made on former President Musharraf, PM Shaukat, interior minister Sherpao and present PM. Having put top PPP legislators on the hit list, ANP elected members have also been added in the list and some have already been slain. Hujra of ANP leader Asfandyar in Charsadda was hit on 3 October in which he had a narrow escape.

These attacks are other than routine attacks on military convoys, check posts and police stations. Kidnapping of security persons, foreigners and diplomats are other means employed to get their demands met and prisoners released or to compel the security forces to wrap up certain check posts causing hindrance to their movement.

While the foreign hands are definitely involved in destabilising Pakistan, however, they are not the sole cause of prevailing chaos. This can be seen from the fact that after the election campaign picked up momentum in January 2008, cycle of suicide attacks ceased. The cycle recommenced once the PPP and ANP betrayed the trust of the people and showed their true colours. Had the new civilian government lived up to its commitment of restoring deposed judges, made the corrupt and criminals accountable, revised the faulty policy of war on terror and abided by the agreements signed with the militants in Swat, Bajaur, Mohmand and South Waziristan Agencies in May 2008, and taken meaningful steps to redress their grievances by introducing the promised Shariah in Malakand Division and undertaken development works, the menace of militancy could have got controlled to quite an extent.

Now that militancy is almost getting out of control, it is becoming that much easier for foreign agents to get submerged in the melee and add fuel to fire. Instead of taking corrective measures to cleanse the muck left behind by Musharraf led regime, our myopic leaders are following old policies in letter and spirit. They are reinforcing failures by stating that it is our war and more force will be applied. Rehman Malik instead of resigning after the Marriott intelligence failure has gone bonkers and is roaring like a wounded tiger that he will not rest till each and every militant is put to sword.

Daily killings of militants in Bajaur, Swat and Darra are being triumphantly announced with a measure of exultation and achievement, hoping against hope that killing of few thousands would curb militancy. In Iraq, massacre of over one million has increased and not lessened militancy. Unless our rulers change their lifestyle, ensure good governance, impose effective system of accountability, deliver cheap justice to all, promote people friendly policies and win their hearts and minds, whatever force applied to eliminate extremism and militancy would prove counter productive.