The New Nation - Internet Edition

Dr. M. S. Haq

Governor Sarah Palin would be required to cross several hurdles though, before she could snatch the US presidency from continuing male domination, so far. My assumption - Sarah Palin could become first women president of the US - is based on, among other things and as appropriate, existing plus anticipated events, factors and uncertainties that are or would be or both associated, whether in part or in full, with: upcoming presidential election in November 2008 and outcomes of that election; upcoming US administration after the election and outcomes of that administration; outcomes of Palin's performance initially as the vice president; and the next presidential election (after 2008) and outcomes of that election; to mention a few.

The cause, the effect and the causality that are and would be connected with, and ancillary to, Palin's becoming first women president of the US appear - at present - to be diverse, complicated and variability-laden, among other things. Further, critical masses of the cause, the effect and the causality of Palin's becoming first woman president of the US will, among other things and in varying degrees, be proportional to the amount of synergies between and among election and related factors - within and beyond - the direct reach of Palin, Senator McCain, the rest of republican party, the democrats, and concerned others at physical and other levels at any given time between now and the foreseeable future. In that respect, one of the challenges will be: how best and quickest the republican party could maximize votes of undecided and inter-party voters in its favor, maximize the participation of republican voters in the election and capitalize the media (print, electronic, others) opportunities (debate, discourses, ads.) - all in support of for example, its nominees and agendas.

The findings of subjective and objective examinations of - Palin could become first women president of the US - based on say, today's (3rd day of October 2008) premises, would lead us to, among other things, a host of assumptions, probabilities and possibilities - spreading over a variety of time horizons. The time dimension of Palin's case and the outcome of her efforts towards becoming the first women president would dependent on for example and as appropriate: how best (the term best represents both best positive and best negative) and quickest existing and evolving situations in relevant areas could turn further in her favor or go further against her plans or a combination of both between now and the future; how best and quickest she could avail herself of resultant opportunities (I mean outcomes of possible developments mentioned in the above sentence), transform resultant challenges into opportunities and harness all those opportunities in her favor or would fail to do those things or a combination of both; and how best and quickest she could become a good material for say, functionally effective president or otherwise.

The overall chance of winning this year's (2008) presidential race by Senator McCain is apparently brighter than that of Senator Obama. In that respect, some of the reasons and factors - as appropriate - have been presented below.

1. The gap between demand sides and supply sides of Senator Obama as a wartime president (I mean in terms of say, potentials) is apparently wider than that of Senator McCain because the latter has got more marketable, as well as acceptable and smarter personal (including inter alia personality), professional (for example, a Vietnam veteran) and party profiles than those of the former. In other words, the overall candidacy profile of McCain appears to be more compatible with the candidacy requirement for say, a new war time commander-in-chief - who will not accept anything but victory in the war on terror, at least: (a) for the sake of those Americans who have sacrificed so far their life or their normal living or both and for those Americans who will do that till the major part of war is won - for an instance; (b) for the sake of those Americans who will not carry the burden of defeat (in the war) to for example, the next generation Americans; (c) for the sake of say, those ordinary Americans who wish to enjoy their individual and collective progress and prosperity vis-à-vis their security on a continuous basis and in an incremental fashion and (d) for the sake of those who have been supporting the people of US in the effort towards peace, security, freedom, liberty, democracy and economic growth in the world, to mention a few - than that of Senator Obama;

2. Senator Obama's war strategies have so far undergone far more surgical procedures including inter alia those relating to organ transplants - at conceptual and other levels - than those of Senator McCain. It tends to indicate inter alia the stances of Senator Obama and for that matter the democratic party on war on terror are shaky, sweetened at times by skillful rhetoric, full of doubts in terms of their eventual implementation and insufficiently reliable, to mention a few. Senator Obama has by now changed colors a number of times when it comes to articulating his rhetorical stances on war on terror. Further, his statements on war on terror are at times found to be cursory, lacking depth, as well as maturity, and nearly irresponsible. For example, his answers to a question on war on terror on the Pakistani front bear testimony to that. On the other hand, Senator McCain's answers to the same question were found to intelligent, reality based, professionally enriched and diplomacy-wise skillful.

One of the concerns here is: a windfall from above and related developments has been instrumental in inter alia creating, sustaining and promoting confusions in the minds of people about, for example: whether or not presidential candidate Obama will deliver or will be able to deliver his strategies in pertinent areas after he becomes for example, the next president of US. I believe the country needs at this critical juncture of its history a president who would be a solid doer and not a mere speaker. Transactions of Senator McCain so far with the people of US and others tend to suggest he will be a doer president, adequately immune from limitations of legal mindsets and lawyers' syllables.

3. The candidacy of Senator McCain could benefit from a sizeable amount of votes from supporters of Senator Clinton who had fail to win this year's democratic presidential nomination and from the country's Jewish community, among others. Further, the prospect of Senator McCain getting democratic votes from the Muslim community has been brightening day by day. In the midst of above and related developments, it will not, however, be out of place to mention here, those Muslim people and Muslim countries whose expectations from Senator Obama are at present running high could confront, in the future, a totally unexpected situation wherein they might find Senator Obama to be a top anti-Muslim US president - if he is eventually elected, though. He might perhaps elect to take that kind of position - in order for him to demonstrate before the people of US and the world at large that he is not anti-Christian, anti-Jew and anti-so on due to his previous Muslim background.

4. The outcome of influence of black factor and white factor on 2008 voting decisions would not, in an average sense, show any earth shaking change from previous trends in pertinent areas - because the country is for example, yet to be able to get itself freed from say, the culture of calling African Americans - black, unless an unexpectedly drastic change associated with above factors occurs between now and the day of election - both days inclusive - in the minds of majority of voters. There could be changes in voting patterns of African American and Hispanic voters - the outcome could go both in favor of and against Senator Obama, in varying degrees though.

Further, voting decisions in favor of Senator Obama could be affected (I mean in a negative way), to an extent, on account of his birth centered Muslim connections, per se.

5. if a vacancy occurs in the area of presidential nominee for any reason whatsoever and if for example, Senator Clinton becomes a new presidential nominee (the runner up in democratic presidential nominee race of 2008) - provided that the law of the land permits as such - it could then be difficult for Senator Clinton to attract majority of votes from Obama camp, among other things. In that event, an additional number of votes from Obama camp might go to Senator McCain.

If a vacancy occurs in the republican side for any reason whatsoever, a reconfigured vote matrix could come into force, among other things. While it is hoped the vacancies will not occur, Bush administration will continue to provide the required security to all presidential and vice-presidential candidates for the 2008 election. Besides, it is expected contingency plans are available to both the republicans and the democrats for meeting emergencies of above and related nature.

6. Party differentials relating to core agendas (I mean election agendas) of the democrats and the republicans have so far been found to be minimal and as such the comparative, competitive and other advantages in terms of future theories, practices and recycling pertaining to those agendas lie, in many respects, in the ruling republican party.

Closely relating to that, is the fact: none of the parties has so far been able to present to the people some kind of a breakthrough - at least in theories - that could act as an additional motivation for undecided voters to vote for the concerned party. In light of above, one of the assumptions here is: maximum number of voters might elect to vote for what I would call - building the US on existing capacities - brightening further the prospect for Senator McCain to win the election; and

7. Senator McCain - if elected - will become the second president in the third consecutive republican term. I believe it would not pose a great challenge to undecided voters to vote for Senator McCain because the labor party of UK is currently enjoying its third consecutive term in the government.

In short it can be said inter alia the window of opportunity is still wide open for Senator McCain, Sarah Palin and rest of the republican party to benefit from their respective comparative, competitive and other advantages in pursuits of say, winning the upcoming election.

The bottom line is: God willing - Senator McCain will be elected as the next US president and Governor Sarah Palin will become the vice president.

Sarah Palin could become the president of US in the event the position of president becomes vacant - for any reason whatsoever - during McCain administration (to be). Alternatively, Sarah Palin could become a republican presidential nominee after a successful term as the vice president and subject to the vacancy then available for her plus fulfillment of requirements then in existence.

Taking into cognizance above possibilities, it is expected Sarah Palin will devote her full energy and entrepreneurial, as well as diplomatic skills in pursuits of supplementing and complementing the effort of Senator McCain and for that matter the republican party towards winning the presidential race of 2008.

One more thing: President Bush is not, as at today, a lame duck republican president of the US - he is still continuing with a full presidential life - his recent successes pertaining to for example, Indo-US nuke deals and bailout programs bear testimony to that.

The last word: the success of Sarah Palin in becoming the vice president this time would be, in a sense, a step forward towards mainstreaming women in domains of politics, governance and development, among other things. Wishing well to President Bush, all presidential and vice-presidential candidates of the US, people of the US and others! God bless.