Internet Edition. August 19, 2008, Updated: Bangladesh Time 12:00 AM 
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A few predictions about future military wars

Dr. M. S. Haq



Human expectations, sciences, arts, engineering and outcomes concerning wars (for example: military war-s) have been undergoing changes, in varying degrees and on a continuous basis - relative to time, space and other variables, though. One of the reasons for that, is: the demand side and the supply side of human needs and wants, environmental (physical, virtual, others) dynamics, and the outcome of contemporary regimes of governance, technology and development - that have been affecting domains of war, peace, progress and prosperity in the universe - are being increasingly instrumental in shaping objectives, as well as goals of future wars and the future of wars, among other things.

People's efforts, initiatives and other related things have so far been instrumental in, among other things, starting or sustaining or escalating or promoting or halting or wining (or otherwise) wars of various types and magnitudes - either directly or otherwise. A few of those wars are: wars against diseases - with the help of say, bio-medical engineering and technology (one of the core bases of present day bio-medical engineering and technology is defense innovations); wars facilitating spreading of diseases - with the help of say, biological weapons; wars against environmental degradations; wars against hunger and poverty; wars against terrorism, wars against human rights violations - with the help of say, imaging technologies; wars against poor governance; wars against deprivations; and wars against inequities, inequalities and injustices.

Factors such as and as appropriate: military wars against uncertainties; military efforts and initiatives towards zero human casualties (at least in a direct sense) at wars; military wars for creating challenges and for grabbing, owning and harnessing opportunities - including inter alia those pertaining to what I would call universe's commons - in pursuits of say, satisfying ever increasing wants and needs at local, national, global and other levels; military wars in favor of or against (or both) markets and competitions at various levels of human societies or endeavors or both; military wars for destruction or restoration or preservation or promotion (or otherwise) of human civilizations and civilizations of other living things (used in a deeper sense); and military wars in favor of or against (or both) sharing the usable wealth or creating wastage or minimizing wastage (or any combination of them); are, among other things, expected to dominate core focuses of military war related discoveries, inventions and innovations through the foreseeable future.

It is also expected: outcomes of those discoveries, inventions and innovations will, in varying degrees, continue to facilitate strengthening and enrichment of for example foundations and guiding principles of other disciplines of knowledge and application (I mean other than those associated directly with military areas, per se) - relative however to time, space and other variables.

But the availability of ultimate benefits - arising out of say, above developments - to maximum number of people especially the poor, the opportunity for beneficiaries to harness those benefits in their own favor (per se) in a timely, cost effective and result-oriented fashion, and the size of return from recycling those benefits would depend on inter alia and relative as appropriate to time, space and other variables:

A. the amount and the tensile strength of people's power (used in an average sense) particularly that of the poor when it comes to retaining, enhancing and promoting the people's share in respective domains of military activities at local, national, global and other levels - against the backdrop of for example, a progressively re-integrating world;

B. the quantity, quality, sustainability and result-orientation of civil-military synergy and military-civil synergy in pursuits of say, creating, owning and promoting benefits via joint discoveries, joint inventions and joint innovations in relevant areas;

C. the rate and the speed of transformation of military benefits into civilian benefits and civilian benefits into military benefits in pertinent areas of discovery, invention and innovation;

D. the nature and the degree of challenges, as well as opportunities for solving diseases associated with needs and wants of human and other living beings at any given time in the foreseeable future; and

E. the focus of for example civilian and military visions, plans, programs, strategies and activities when it comes to creating, sustaining and promoting the future of universe at any given time in the foreseeable future.

In light of what has been discussed and not discussed in the article so far, it now appears factor that could for example influence or impact upon (or both) the future of military wars and future military wars include inter alia - not presented in the order of priority and importance:

1. spaces (used in a wider sense) would continue to remain as one of the main goals of military wars. But virtual spaces, spaces in other parts of the universe (the Moon, the Mars, etc.), economically or weapon-wise (or both) prospective spaces, market spaces, and spaces under the ground would become inter alia main attractions for military wars;

2. progress and prosperity at local, national, global and other levels would be increasingly instrumental in inviting inter alia military wars and antidotes to military wars - for example;

3. degrees of loss, damage and destruction as a result of military wars would be higher than that at present in a more interdependent and borderless world than that again at present;

4. defense industries and RDE (research, development and engineering) initiatives in areas such as and as appropriate (i) space engineering and technology (involving inter alia a more extensive and meaningful use of what I would call higher levels of geometry and calculus), (ii) nano engineering and technology, (iii) automation engineering and technology (involving inter alia a more extensive and meaningful use of what I would call super high artificial intelligence), (iv) robotics, (v) zero human (war) casualty engineering and technology, (vi) engineering and technology associated with genomics, (vii) protection engineering and technology (shelters, etc.), (viii) anti-weapons engineering and technology (anti-nuke weapons, etc.) (ix) more resources friendly engineering and technology than that at present (x) weapons protection and preservation engineering and technology (xi) materials engineering and technology (involving inter alia a more extensive and meaningful use of lighter, more heat resistant - at up cycles and down cycles of heat treatment, per se, more self-lubricating, more tensile strength bearing and more efficient engineering materials and composites) (xii) secrecy management engineering and technology (internet security, etc) and (xiii) forecasting engineering and technology would flourish or increase (or both) at least at a rate of arithmetic progression on a monthly basis, for example. It will not be out of place to mention here, higher precision, more reliability and higher result-potential of say, defense industry products than that of the existing ones would constitute the critical mass of quality of those products, per se;

5. wars would be supported by a more extensive and meaningful use of technology aided intelligence than human and other types of intelligence;

6. forecasters, scientists, mathematicians, war strategists, war managers, data managers, statisticians and weaponists (I would like to call it in that way) would, among others, play a lead role in military wars. Further, a part of defense personnel comprising NCOs (non-commissioned officers), JCOs (junior commissioned officers) and COs (commissioned officers) would survive as for example, trained data collectors and data analysts of various types and levels;

7. the core war winning strength would be knowledge and its proper applications to various stages of military wars. The duration of military wars would inter alia be relatively short;

8. defense forces and establishments - at least in its present form and size - would undergo changes in a significant manner;

9. the ramification of knowledge based future of military wars in a knowledge based universe would be instrumental in inter alia shaping political culture, defense culture, culture of governance, international relations culture, poor and ordinary people's culture, culture of sharing and culture of isolation, as well as integration at local, national, global and other levels. In that respect, it is expected children of poor people will be able to enjoy for example human development opportunities similar to those of the children of honest military personnel, honest rich people and others particularly in poverty stricken countries in not too distant a future;

10. RDE in inter-disciplinary areas of knowledge, understanding and application will get additional thrusts from efforts towards creating and sustaining the future of military in the universe;

11. the fall out of military war would have significant impacts on intra and inter-generational areas at medical, non-medical and other levels;

12. the cause, effect and causality of military wars would not be of great help to cope with growing matrices of needs and wants - used in an average sense; and

13. the future of war would be instrumental in inter alia ushering a new era of what I would call - universe order - in the foreseeable future.

The list is not exhaustive.

Last word: are world people and institutions (including inter alia governments, United Nations, NATO, World Bank and WTO) ready for facing and meeting challenges and harnessing opportunities associated with for example, the universe order in a proactive, reactive, pragmatic, pluralistic, accountable, result-oriented and sustainable manner and to the 'satisfaction' of all living beings as far as humanly possible? Is the space charter (I would like to call it in that way) ready for dealing with say, distribution of spaces in relevant parts of the universe in the future - in a purposeful, equitable and satisfactory fashion, for example?

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