The New Nation - Internet Edition

Shamsuddin Ahmed

New crisis hits Nepal. CPN (Maoist) that won majority seats in the constituent assembly in April 10 election has declined to form the government or join it. In a sudden twist of events, three other parties - Congress, CPN (UML) and MRF - ganged up against the Maoist and elected Congress candidate Dr Ram Baran Yadav as President of the republic defeating the Maoist candidate in the constituent assembly on July 21. The 3-party alliance is now poised to form the government, each of the parties vying for the post of Prime Minister.

Maoist dubbed the alliance as unholy, formed only to prevent them from forming the government. How the three parties with diverse views came closer to form the alliance? The answer came from Dr Padam P Sharma, President of Empower Nepal Foundation based in USA. He wrote: India was propping the Terai Maadhesh parties (MRF) …Repeated attempts by the Maoists to forge an alliance with UML (Unified Marxist-Leninist) failed due to UML leadership's haughtiness and the pressure from the South Block (Indian Foreign Ministry) … The leaders have to pay a penalty of humiliation for committing the political sin of not heeding to the will of the people but listening to bad advice of the media, Nepali Congress and the brothers from the South Block.

Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) has sensed the motive of the alliance. It may soon topple his government with the help of President Yadav. So, he declined to form the government. But he sounded a strong warning that the Congress led alliance formed at the behest of external forces is going to push the country into grave internal conflict paving the way to take advantage by its alien masters. He told a press conference on Wednesday that the alliance has halted release of PLA (people's liberation army) budget which is bound to make the situation volatile.

Prachanda has squarely blamed India for twisting the political events and preventing his party from taking over power. "We were under pressure from India to make its henchman Girija Prasad Koirala the President of the republic," Prachanda was quoted to have told the press conference. Finally the alliance has chosen Yadav, General Secretary of Congress who studied in India and whose ancestors came from India.

He said people had voted CPN (Maoist) to govern the country. But conspiracy during the last three months has made it clear that external forces would not allow them to form the government. "Foreign agents in Nepal want the country to fall into a never ending civil war," said Prachanda, the rebel leader who waged guerilla war for a decade to end the monarchy and feudalism in Nepal that left more than 13,000 people dead. Maoist won 220 seats while Nepali Congress got 110, UML bagged 103 and Terai Madhesi parties (MRF) won less than 50 out of 575 elected seats in the Constituent Assembly.

It is true that Indian leaders were unnerved at the victory of Maoist in the election. They viewed that collusion of growing Maoist force of India and the Maoist of Nepal would pose a greater security threat to India. Nepal shares a 1400km open border with India without much check of cross border movement of their nationals. According to the Institute of Conflict Management, India, violence by growing Maoist has spread to 192 districts in 16 States. Former Chief of Intelligence Bureau, India, estimated that Maoist violence affects nearly 40 percent of India's landmass and 35 percent of its population. This excluded the secessionist movement in the eastern part of India known as Seven Sisters, including ULFA in Assam.

Reaction of Indian politicians and intelligentsia to the Maoist victory in Nepal was indeed sharp and strong. They have been advocating for timely and appropriate action to prevent Maoist rule in the closest neighbour on security ground. Some even suggested for military intervention in Nepal saying New Delhi should keep its eyes shut in case the army takes over in Kathmandu as was in the case of Mayanmar and Bangladesh.

Apparently the Indian policy has succeeded in Nepal. The development has indeed assumed lot of political significance in the region in the backdrop of newborn Indo-US civil nuclear cooperation.

Prachanda has a 20,000 strong battled hardened guerrilla force plus equal number of youths (Young Communist League) in his command. Will he take the defeat low? Besides, China on its north is another factor. Beijing views that India wants to turn the landlocked Nepal into a second Bhutan or Sikkim. And the new leadership in Kathmandu may enter the process of Sikimisation (Sikim was annex by India). China must not allow any of it happen.