The New Nation - Internet Edition

Reuters, New Delhi

India's parliament begins debate on a vote of confidence in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government on Monday that will decide whether snap elections are called and the fate of a nuclear deal with the United States.

The vote, due on Tuesday, is so close that several MPs who are ill may be flown or wheeled in from hospital, and others, in jail for crimes such as murder and extortion, have been granted temporary release.

If the Congress party-led government falls, there will almost certainly be elections this year. It would almost certainly lead to the cancellation of the civilian nuclear deal and throw economic policy into limbo just as inflation rises dangerously. The nuclear deal would grant India access to foreign nuclear fuel and technology, unlocking billions of dollars in investment.

But the government's communist allies withdrew their support in protest, saying the deal made India a pawn of Washington.

The vote essentially pits the Congress Party-led coalition in favor of the deal against the communists and a coalition led by the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP says the nuclear deal limits India's ability to test nuclear weapons.

A host of smaller regional and caste-based parties hold the balance. It is unclear which way they will vote and a spate of horse trading even included the re-naming of an airport to honor the father of one wavering member of parliament.

A government defeat would be a boost for the BJP, which has won a string of state elections this year amid rising inflation and criticism that millions of poor Indians were not benefiting from the booming economy.

The prime minister will kick off the confidence motion with an opening statement, followed by a parliamentary debate and a final electronic vote, expected on Tuesday evening.

Arriving at the parliament on Monday morning, Prime Minister Singh gave a "V" for victory sign.

"We will prove our majority on the floor of the house," he said.

Numbers are in flux, but on Monday newspapers said the decision may come down to one or two votes in the 543-member house.

"Vote looks neck and neck" was the headline of The Asian Age.

In 1999, a BJP-led government lost a confidence vote by a margin of just one.

Weak party discipline, under-the-table deals and accidents like MPs falling ill make the result almost impossible to predict.

"The problem is that money changes hands, dirty deals are struck and MPs do a volte-face nonchalantly," said political commentator Amulya Ganguli. "It's hard to predict when the race is so tight."

A week ago the government was confident of securing a majority with the support of the regional Samajwadi Party (SP), which replaced the communists as its parliamentary support.

Since then there have been signs of a rebellion in the ranks of the SP, including the defection to an opposition group of senior party member Shahid Siddiqui.

Two small political groups-the JD(S) and RLD with six MPs in all-also decided to vote against the government.

Other MPs have vacillated over voting for a government already battling rising inflation and mounting unpopularity ahead of general elections due by next May.