The New Nation - Internet Edition

Reuters, New Delhi

India's parliament debated on a vote of confidence in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government on Monday that will decide the fate of a nuclear deal with the United States and could trigger a snap election.

The vote, due on Tuesday, is so close that several MPs who are ill may be flown or wheeled in from hospital, and others, in jail for crimes such as murder and extortion, have been granted temporary release.

If the Congress party-led government falls there will almost certainly be an election this year. It would also likely lead to the scrapping of the civilian nuclear agreement and throw economic policy into limbo just as inflation rises dangerously.

Arriving at parliament on Monday morning, Prime Minister Singh gave a "V" for victory sign.

"We will prove our majority on the floor of the house," he said, providing a boost to India's stock market, which is watching the debate nervously

The main 30-share BSE index ended the day up around 1.5 percent, but volumes were thin.

"Investors believe the government has a fair chance of pulling it off," said Sandeep Neema, fund manager at JM Financial Mutual Fund. "Nevertheless, there is an event risk, a major one. and people would rather wait than take a call."

The vote essentially pits the Congress-led coalition in favor of the deal against the communists and a coalition led by the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP says the nuclear deal limits India's ability to test nuclear weapons.

The nuclear deal would grant India access to foreign nuclear fuel and technology, unlocking billions of dollars in investment.

But the government's communist allies withdrew their support in protest, saying the deal made India a pawn of Washington.

A host of smaller regional and caste-based parties hold the balance in parliament. There has been a flurry of horse-trading in the past week that even included the re-naming of an airport to honor the father of one wavering member of parliament.

Numbers are in flux, but newspapers said the decision may come down to one or two votes in the 543-member house. Television channels said the government seemed to be marginally ahead but a handful of undecided lawmakers could still swing the vote.

"The problem is that money changes hands, dirty deals are struck and MPs do a volte-face nonchalantly," said political commentator Amulya Ganguli. "It's hard to predict when the race is so tight."

As the stormy debate raged, the mood on the government benches was upbeat, with MPs flashing victory signs, shaking hands and smiling. One opposition lawmaker privately conceded the government could "scrape through by five to six votes."

But weak party discipline, under-the-table deals and accidents such as MPs falling ill make the result very far from a foregone conclusion.

A government defeat would be a boost for the BJP, which has won a string of state elections this year against a backdrop of rising inflation and criticism that millions of poor Indians were not benefiting from the booming economy.

BJP leader L.K. Advani told parliament the government was likely to fall, but added the government would have to face elections next year even if it survives the vote.

"The UPA government today is like a patient in the ICU," he said, after protests from government benches. "Naturally the first question is: Is it going to survive or not?"

Advani said his party did not oppose nuclear cooperation or a strategic relationship with the United States, but said the deal in its current form made India "a subservient partner."

The parliamentary debate will be followed by an electronic vote, expected on Tuesday evening.

A week ago the government was confident of securing a majority with the support of the regional Samajwadi Party (SP), which replaced the communists as its parliamentary support.

Since then there have been signs of a rebellion in the ranks of the SP, making the vote tougher to predict.

"I think the government may be ahead by a whisker, but there is evidence of rumbles within the SP," said political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan. "The SP issue could trip the government up."