The New Nation - Internet Edition

Solving power, energy crises

In the backdrop of electricity and gas supply shortage, the Chief Adviser is reported to have directed the concerned bodies of the government to bring about a quick solution to the problem. The country is facing a shortage of 200 million cubic feet of gas against a daily demand for 2000 mmcfd due to limited gas production and distribution. The shortage of electricity is 500 megawatts. Though there is the capacity for generating the same, shortage of gas supply to power production units prevented the achievement of optimum power generation. For immediate solution of the problem the Chief Adviser stressed enhancing gas production from the Bibiana gas field.

Gas and electricity are like the lifeblood of the national economy. Gas is a source of energy for power generation and at the same time a raw material for the production of fertiliser. About 80 percent of the country's power production is fuelled by gas. A large number of big and small industries use gas as fuel. So gas crisis needs to be solved urgently. Short supply of gas and electricity to households has been a cause of inconvenience and discomfort for the people. But scarce supply tremendously hampers the growth of the national economy. Investment in the industrial sectors has slowed down due to inadequate supply of gas and electricity. Installation process of some big industrial enterprises is reported to have been stopped due to lack of immediate availability of gas and electricity. Both the foreign and local entrepreneurs shy away from investment for the same reason. Thus quick solution of power and energy crises should be addressed in right earnest while efforts must be made to prepare medium and long term plans to bring a lasting solution of power and energy crises.

Making transport system efficient

THE end of developing an efficient transport system for supporting the growth of a strong and prosperous economy has been highlighted at a workshop held in the city. Top executives of the Ministries of Communications, Shipping, the Transport Authority and the Transport Sector Management Reform Project and the Planning Commission participated in the discussions and underscored the need for adopting a long-term vision for development of an efficient transport system with the ultimate end of meeting the needs of the people in the transport sector.

The development of a safe, sound and environment friendly transport system is a major need of the country. The existing transport system including roads, railways, waterways and airways were brought under review by participants at a recent workshop. The existing systems of management of such infrastructural facilities are inefficient. The official agencies in charge of urban planning and rural development have yet to achieve balanced regional development that could benefit different sectors of the economy. The demand for transport facilities and services has increased over the years with increase of the population and expansion of economic activities.

The prevailing problems in the transport sector in Bangladesh have increased with the growth of population. The infrastructure facilities including city-plans have not been prepared properly. Road-networks have been increased by the Roads and Highways Department and the city-planners. But the overall physical planning of urban areas, earmarking commercial and industrial zones, residential zones and academic zones, has not been taken well care of. The people opting for building residential and commercial complexes in the urban areas have literally bypassed construction rules. They have in most cases encroached on the land on which roads were to be built and thus directly exacerbated problems of transportation. The sooner corrective measures are taken the better.

Would Bangladesh really disappear under water by 2100?

Dr. M.Monirul Qader Mirza

Bangladesh is a flat deltaic country where 80% of the elevations are less than 12 meters above sea level. Terrain of the coastal southern Bangladesh is mostly at sea level. Because of the geographical setting and physical characteristics, the country is regularly inundated by riverine to coastal flooding. Under the future climate change regime, the country will be highly vulnerable to sea level rise, intense cyclones and storm surge flooding. A recent special report entitled 'Bangladesh is set to disappear under the waves by the end of the century' by Johann Hari, published in the British Daily 'Independent'(www.independent.co.uk) has drawn significant attention around the world. It has particularly sent a shockwave among the people, scientists and policy makers in Bangladesh and in the overseas. However, will Bangladesh completely disappear under water by 2100 as claimed in the Independent citing National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the United States? This issue deserves discussion in the context of the findings of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that released in 2007 and the scientific developments that have taken place since the release of the IPCC report.

Causes of Sea Level Rise: Sea level varies from temporal to spatial scales. For the inhabitants of the coastal area, relative sea level- the level of the sea surface in relation to land is important. Relative sea level can change by: vertical movement of the land or changes in the level of ocean surface itself. Vertical movement can occur due to tectonic activities and balance between deltaic subsidence caused by massive weight of sediments, and the accretion of land as additional sediments are deposited in the coastal areas. Changes in sea surface topography can occur at the very shortest time-scales due to tidal and meteorological phenomena.

Sea level changes are recorded by tide gauges. The relative sea level at a gauge may show long-term changes due to the vertical motion of the gauge, circulation of the ocean or changes in global volume of the ocean which is caused by melting of land ice masses and warming of the ocean and its thermal expansion. In the context of greenhouse effect, the ocean, as well as land is warming up. As the ocean warms, the density of water would decrease and its volume would increase. This is termed as 'oceanic thermal expansion'. There are three uncertainties to ascertain the rate of thermal expansion. They are: changes in the heating of the climate system, the sensitivity of climate and the rate of heat uptake by the oceans.

Sea Level Changes in the Recent Past: According to the IPCC, the instrumental record of modern sea level changes shows evidence for onset of sea level rise during the 19th century. Estimates for the 20th century show that global average sea level rose at a rate of about 1.7 mm per year. Satellite observations available since the early 1990s provide more accurate sea level data with nearly global coverage. This decade-long satellite altimetry data set shows since 1993, sea level has been rising at a rate of around 3 mm per year, significantly higher than the previous half century. However, sea level is not rising uniformly around the world. In some regions, rates are up to several times the global mean rise, while in other regions sea level is falling. For the past decade, sea level rise shows the highest magnitude in the western Pacific and eastern Indian oceans. Sea level rise in some tidal stations in the Bangladesh coasts are: Hiron Point-4 mm per year; Char Changa-6 mm per year and Cox's Bazar-7.8 mm per year as reported by the SAARC Meteorological Center in Dhaka. Regional variability of the rates of sea level is due mostly to non-uniform changes in temperature and salinity and related to changes in ocean circulation.

What factors contributed to the observed sea level rise? As per IPCC's 4th Assessment Report, among the measurable factors, glaciers and ice caps was found to be largest contributor, for example, from 1961-2003, its contribution was estimated to be 28% followed by thermal expansion (23%). But for the decade 1993-

Future Sea Level Projections of the IPCC: In its 4th Assessment Report, the IPCC projected that global sea level rise would by 2100 in the range of 18 cm to 59 cm depending on a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. This full range of projection is relative to 1980-1999 and excluded of carbon- cycle feedback and future rapid dynamical change in ice flow because of lack of published literature. This is an emerging science. However, the NASA scientist Dr James Hansen (http:// www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/) disagrees with the IPCC findings and termed that it had addressed "a portion of the problem."

2100: The Doomsday for Bangladesh?: The Independent article is partly based on two recent publications of Dr Hansen where he discussed the limitations of the IPCC's business as usual (BAU) projection of sea level rise. According to him, the most important left out component of sea level rise was contributions from the disintegration of ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica. But the IPCC in its 4th Assessment Report considered 0.1 to 0.2 meter additional sea level rise for the ice sheet melting. However, this has not been explicitly integrated in its sea level rise projections. Dr Hansen's concerns have been addressed differently by the IPCC as it states "Larger values cannot be excluded, but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise."

According to Dr Hansen, the past warming of 0.7oC already produces large amount of summer melting on Greenland and West Antarctica.

He iterates "Global warming of several more degrees, with its polar amplification, would have both Greenland and West Antarctica bathed in summer melt for extended melt seasons." Dr Hansen further says that until the past few years, contribution from the ice sheet disintegration was insignificant, but it has doubled in the past one decade (1995-2005) and close to 1 mm per year. So if 10 mm or 1 cm contribution from the ice sheets for the decade 2005-2015 doubles in every decade, by 2100 sea level rise only from the melting of ice sheets would be 5 meters. This estimate is only based on an assumption and there is no concrete reasoning to back it up.

In this regard, Dr Hansen says "Of course I cannot prove that my choice of a ten-year doubling time for non linear response is accurate, but I am confident that provides a far better estimate than a linear response for the ice sheet component of sea level rise under BAU scenario." So in order to verify Dr Hansen's 'ten-year doubling' assumption, we need to wait couple of more decades.

The scary part of the Independent article was 25 meters sea level rise and complete disappearance of Bangladesh from the World Map. Mr Johann Hari wrote "…and found that many climatologists think the IPCC is way too optimistic about Bangladesh. I turned to Professor James Hansen, the director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, whose climate calculations have proved to be more accurate than anybody else's. He believes the melting of the Greenland ice cap being picked up his satellite today, now, suggests we are facing a 25-metre rise in sea levels this century-which would drown Bangladesh entirely." Note that the IPCC in its report has not considered Bangladesh exclusively although it has appeared in many instances because of special geo-physical characteristics of the country and its future vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise.

In my long association with the IPCC, I have not come across any literature that has particularly projected a 25-meter sea level rise by 2100. I have therefore decided to verify it with Dr Hansen. I sent him an email on June 26, 2008 and he was very kind to respond back a day latter. He replied "I have made no such projection, although the long-term response to 2-3oC warming would probably be a sea level rise of that order -- it is hard to say how much would occur by 2100 -- it could be a few meters." This long-term timeline is debatable, may be thousands of years. So the 25 meters sea level rise is inappropriately cited in the Independent and certainly entire Bangladesh is not going under water by the end of this century.

Sea Level Rise: Implications for Bangladesh

Because of flatness of the country, for any given magnitude of future sea level rise, the impacts could be devastating. IPCC's Third Assessment Report published in 2001 projected 11% inundation for a 45-cm sea level rise. However, the inundated area may be doubled for a 1-meter rise (Figure 1). Another study conducted by the Institute for water Modeling (IWM), Dhaka shows intrusion of seawater up to Chandpur, about 80 km upstream from estuary. With a 32-cm sea level rise, 84% of the Sundarbans (the UNESCO Heritage Site) would be deeply inundated by 2050 and the entire Sundarbans may be lost for about one-metre rise. In Bangladesh, impacts of sea level rise on land and water, crops, livestock, human health and livelihood would be significant. It is therefore necessary to formulate and implement appropriate adaptation measures under a long perspective plan.

(The writer is currently with Adaptation and Impacts Research Division (AIRD), Environment Canada and the Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto. Acted as Coordinating Lead Author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations-winner of Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.)

Ensuring food security in the region

Marie Lillo

Sky rocketing food inflation partly triggered by shortages and rising transportation costs have curtailed food availabilities throughout many parts of the world. At times, this has led to significant social unrest and international political tensions.

For the GCC states, ensuring medium to long-term food security has to be a top policy priority, in order to avoid similar difficulties. As it stands, according to a Gulf Research Center (GRC) report on food inflation, in absolute numbers Saudi Arabia is the largest Arab food importer in the GCC followed by the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. In 2007, total GCC food imports hit US$10 billion, US$3 billion of which accrued to the UAE.

When it comes to food security, Africa has gained a new degree of strategic importance. The continent is seen by many as providing a short- as well as long-term answer to the current crisis. Already, countries such as China have begun to look earnestly into this direction, generating new dynamics of power with the onset of a competition for farmland and investments in agro-businesses. As a result and in the light of this race for supplies and the possible longevity of the crisis, the GCC states should think of establishing a strategic partnership with Africa to prepare for future challenges in the region.

Entering the race to secure food reserves as land in China becomes scarce, its water more polluted and its population growth soars, the necessity to diversify its food imports is crucial. Consequently, China has taken a lead in efforts to boost Africa's farm production. At the China-Africa summit in November 2006, it was agreed that Beijing will set up, among many other projects, 10 agricultural centres in Africa.

Some of the GCC countries have also started to react to the food crisis as its effects are already felt by the local population. The GCC states are particularly vulnerable to food shortages as their agricultural sector, which is already limited in size and capacity, is declining and suffering from water scarcity. This is occurring at the same time that the GCC countries are experiencing exponential demographic growth. Consequently, authorities have called for the securing and building up of food reserves by diversifying sources of imports as well as agricultural investments.

However, the clock is ticking and the competition for influence in supplier countries is getting fiercer. Within a short time, it will be harder to secure farmlands in Africa and elsewhere. Given the rising competition, there is a urgent need to look at how the GCC states should approach Africa and how the Arab Gulf states can build a more lasting strong partnership with African countries.

In order to ensure that their investments are having the maximum positive impact both for the GCC countries and the African recipient nations, the GCC states should carefully plan their response to the pressing needs of their fast-growing economies in order to ensure that their activities do not turn into a damaging venture for African nations. Indeed, foreign investments can sometimes prove harmful for the recipient countries as self-interest prevails and the impact on the local population is overlooked. The result of such policies is discontent and instability which is not in the interest of the investors.

For example, oil trade has not always been a blessing for some African countries. The main problem lies in the fact that the wealth generated by the oil business has failed to benefit most of the population and the intrusive process of oil extraction has drastically reduced the ability of communities to engage in traditional economic activities.

In the case of Nigeria, the Niger Delta holds the largest mangrove forest in Africa but polluting oil operations have decimated its ecologically crucial habitat making fishing and agriculture no longer possible in many communities.

To avoid a repetition of such negative outcome, the GCC states must focus on building a mutually beneficial and solid strategic partnership with Africa in order to answer needs and interests on both sides. This would include both opening channels for food security supply to the GCC countries while at the same time supporting infrastructure development in African nations so that growing food supply can provide for both local as well as external demand.

Investment in the African agricultural development would play a crucial role in building this partnership. It would directly profit the development of some regions especially if investments are dedicated to small scale farmers as roughly 65 per cent of Sub-Saharan Africa's population relies on subsistence farming.

Their production though suffers from a substantial lack of infrastructure such as good roads, irrigation systems or agricultural techniques. Heavy investments in infrastructure and technology would thus answer the demand for food in Africa.

Such need is particularly pressing as the population of Africa is growing exponentially. It is expected that by 2040, its population will have doubled, reaching 1.4 billion people. As a result, unless food production is increased to meet future local demand, political instability will occur thereby threatening both outside investment and future supply.

To avoid this, GCC investment should be worked out in close partnership with African nations in order to ensure that money is being spent on meeting local requirements in conjunction with the priorities of the external investors. To focus on short-term rates of return is both insufficient and dangerous.

As Africa becomes the stage of a renewed international race for natural resources, the GCC states that are becoming part of the game must look at the continent as a long-term partner and not as a quick fix for a burning crisis. Both regions have distinctive self-interests which nevertheless can be served and pursued for the benefit of all.

(Marie Lillo is a researcher and the GCC-Africa moderator at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai)