The New Nation - Internet Edition

AFP, New Delhi

The fate of India's government, torn between saving itself or a nuclear pact with Washington, will likely be decided this week with the spectre of early polls looming, analysts and leaders say.

Tensions between Premier Manmohan Singh's Congress-led government and the four-party leftwing alliance supporting it in parliament have been running high since last July over the deal clinched with Washington in 2006.

Last week the spat worsened, with Singh appearing ready to risk his minority government and implement the pact with the United States, despite fierce objections from the communists.

The agreement would give India access to civilian nuclear technology even though it has not signed global non-proliferation pacts.

On Friday, the leftists issued their strongest warning yet to the government, saying they would join hands with their arch rivals, the opposition Hindu nationalists, to bring it down if Singh went ahead with deal.

A government official who wished to remain unnamed said the premier and Congress party leader Sonia Gandhi would decide the deal's future before Singh visits Japan on July 7 for the G8 Summit, where he will meet US President George W. Bush.

Political analyst Rasheed Kidwai noted Sonia Gandhi "put a lot of effort into cobbling together this coalition" five years ago.

"She would not like to break off ties with any party or group in haste, she is not known to take decisions without thought," Kidwai said.

A senior Congress leader said the party was consulting all allies and would take a final decision by June 25 when a last round of talks with the Left is slated.

Syndicated columnist Neerja Chowdhury said the communists' moves were ideologically driven.

"The Left is opposed to a strategic partnership with the US-this is the diet on which their cadres have been brought up. If they go against this, their cadres will desert them," she said.

Meanwhile, efforts have been started by some small political groups within Singh's coalition "to find a position acceptable to both sides," said a leader from southern India, who did not wish to be named.

"We do not want to risk national polls right now with inflation at over 11 percent," the leader said.

Annual inflation jumped Friday to 11.05 percent from 8.75 percent a week earlier, and economists say the rate is headed higher due to record global crude oil prices.

"The high inflation drastically restricts the scope of any political heroics on the nuclear deal," commented the Times of India newspaper on Saturday.

National polls are due by May 2009, and Congress is seen as preferring to hold the elections over the winter when the weather is cooler.

Some in Singh's Congress party also oppose "sacrificing the government on an issue that's not going to fetch votes," said a Congress leader, who wished to remain unnamed.

"The nuclear deal is not an issue that will bring votes. But we are certain to lose because of high inflation. As I see it, prices are likely to come down only early next year," the leader said, a view echoed by many economists.

Singh has argued the deal is vital to India's energy security as the country already imports 70 percent of its crude needs and the figure is expected to rise as the economy grows.

According to 2007 Nobel peace laureate, R.K. Pachauri, the Pact is an important initiative that can secure the supply of nuclear fuel and advanced technology.

"There is an urgent need for all political parties to suppress their short-term political interests in favour of India's long-term national interest," he wrote in a piece published last week.