The New Nation - Internet Edition

Shield against market volatility

BANGLADESH, according to agriculture experts, has enough scope to increase farm production for attaining self-sufficiency in rice and reducing imports of other foodgrains to shield the local market from global food price volatility. The country can easily become self-reliant in rice, potato and vegetables and earn near self-sufficiency in wheat, pulses and oil seeds if right now a number of steps are taken like bringing of fallow land under cultivation with increased crop intensity, reducing yield gap, higher investment in research and extension, popularisation of saline-and-flood-resistant varieties and slight change in crop pattern as suggested in a recent Agro-Economic Research publication on agricultural statistics.

For increasing agricultural production, integrated crop management package by designing agricultural zones based on weather and soil conditions can be taken up apart from ensuring proper supply of agriculture inputs. There are a total of 30 agro-ecological zones defined by experts and the Department of Agricultural Extension is currently preparing upazila-based development plans to increase farm production. Currently, almost 1.8 million hectares of land remain especially in southern and northeast areas. The total area used for Boro rice cultivation this year was 4.5 million. Rice covers almost 11 million hectares or about 80 per cent of the total cultivated area. Boro rice cultivation overlaps Rabi crops, namely pulses, oil seed and onion.

The Agro-Economic Research publication has projected net grain production to be 2.76 crore tonnes in 2010 against the requirement of 2.45 crore tonnes by that time. Bangladesh has long been a net food importing country. Recently, the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute called for increasing investment in agriculture, particularly in agricultural science-technology and market access, both at national and global levels. The government has to ensure food and nutrition of people and invest massive amounts in agriculture with a view to improving infrastructure and protecting the poor from spiralling food prices.

Promote RMG linkage industries

LIKE their support to the readymade garment (RMG) industries of the first generation in the eighties and the nineties, the banks can now come forward to invest in the second generation of industries linked to the garment sector. There is a huge opportunity to invest in the backward linkage industries needed by the RMG sector. Investment in such industries can prove to be just as rewarding as in the RMG industries. Presently, there is a scope for the establishment of many spinning mills, weaving and 280 dyeing cum finishing units. Massive investments await being made profitably in the textile sector.

The establishment of even a single spinning mill to make yarn or a composite mill to produce both yarn and fabric requires huge investments. For a local bank in the past, it was easy to finance even a dozen medium to large RMG industries by itself in a short period of time. The bank's resource base allowed such investment. But the spinning mills or composite mills require higher investment. The banks can get around this problem by forming consortiums among themselves to pool enough resources into a fund for investment exclusively in backward linkage industries for the RMG sector.

There are several reasons why the banks should be promoting the linkage industries. If the RMG industries face setbacks from the insufficiency in the easy availability of local yarn and fabric, then the effects of the same will be passed on to the banks. If the garment industries start failing as a consequence of insufficient linkage support, then the huge investments made by the banks in the RMG industries would be at serious risks. The government should play a leading role in promoting such industries. Funds could be mobilised by selling bonds. The government, the banks, other financial institutions and potential investors should waste no time to act together and invest in RMG linkage industries.

Asia and the Pacific eye good Tourism Business

Mohammad Shahidul Islam

With seven more months to before the year 2008 comes to an end the Asia-Pacific region eye a grand prospect of tourism business as the infrastructure and superstructure are growing in some major countries like Thailand, Singapore, China and Malaysia. A great concern though has been still the "hot" issues of tsunami, bird flu, terrorist attacks and travel-related taxes and most recently the rise of oil prices and food crisis in international level and the wobbly situation in the Persian Gulf.

Many things indicate that the region will be one of the fastest growing regions in the tourism industry internationally. Firstly, international travelers show intention to travel to Asia. Across all markets more than three-quarters of international travelers would consider Asia as a holiday destination. Outside Asian markets, Germany, Australia and Sweden appear to be the most dynamic markets for the tourist flow in Asia.

As WTO [World Tourism Organization] reports travel and tourism has become the world's largest and fastest expanding industry with growth showing a consistent year on year increase. International arrivals have increased by an average rate of 4.2% per annum between 1990 and 2005; a trend that has led the World Tourism Organization to predict that by 2020 tourist arrivals around the world should reach 1.6 billion.

According to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, international tourism arrivals expanded by 6% in 2007, to 898 million international tourist arrivals, as compared to 2006.

"Economic and tourism growth are driven by emerging markets and developing economies. While mature markets remain the leading destinations in the world, the faster growth rate of new markets confirms UNWTO's main message of tourism's potential for the developing world," said UNWTO's Secretary-General, Francesco Frangialli.

Of the additional 52 million worldwide arrivals, Europe received some 19 million and Asia and the Pacific 17 million. The Americas was up by around six million, Africa by three million and the Middle East by five million.

The Middle East totaled 46 million international tourist arrivals and continues to be one of the tourism success stories of the decade so far, despite ongoing tensions and threats. The region is emerging as a strong destination with visitor numbers climbing much faster than the world total, with Saudi Arabia and Egypt among the leading destinations in growth in 2007.

Against the background of a strong growth of above 7% per year since 2000, Asia and the Pacific is also pushing international tourism and attracted 185 million visitors. While Japan (+14%) has taken off as a destination, Malaysia (+20%) Cambodia (+19%), Vietnam (+16%), Indonesia (+15%), India (+13%) and China (+10%) keep improving their growth rates.

The growth forecast is even more spectacular in the case of Asia and the Pacific where international arrivals are expected to leap almost fourfold from 111 million in 2000 to 417 million by 2020. Asia has already overtaken the Americas - in 2002 - to become the second most visited region in the world.

The growth in Asia has been fuelled by rapid economic growth in Asia and the Pacific and by the increasing importance attributed to tourism by national governments. Tourism has become the key industry in several countries in the region in terms of foreign exchange earnings, employment and the generation of income.

The areas that had been affected by the tsunami in December 2004 have managed to surpass the difficulties and saw an increase in visitors' numbers. Other issues in Asia - Pacific region such as terrorist attacks, bird flu, and travel-related taxes are likely to be greater barriers to travel than tsunami. But we have to mention that there is a misconception regarding the areas that were affected by diseases or terrorist attacks as a great amount of people outside Asia don't really know which countries face this problem and in what extend. This fact may affect travel in the region as many of those who intend to travel to Asia are misinformed about the situation especially in Indonesia.

The biggest countries in the Asia such as China and India which have almost one third of the world's population see a significant growth.

The infrastructure basis in China is very strong and will get wonderful business during the Olympic Games in 2008 in Beijing but India keeps pace with strong developments lying ahead.

No doubt, 2008 will be a good year for China. Terrorism is of course a big issue for all the regions in the world not only for Asia. But, there is a risk for terrorist attack in Indonesia especially after the bombings in Bali and things sometimes become so optimistic for the region this year. Moreover, fair and clean Maldives has also fallen in terrorist' attack last year; though the country has almost controlled the situation from further way to be worse.

Maldives is doing fantastic business in tourism what could be really a great example for all nature resourceful small countries in the world. In general terms, things for Asia will be very good in rest of months of 2008 and new investments opportunities will be occurring.

An important issue that indicates the trends in the region is that those indenting to travel in Asia in 2008 are in greater proportion compared to those in 2007. The biggest variation comes from USA (20% to 37%) followed by Japan (from 51% to 62%), Canada (18% to 27%) and Korea (44% to 54%). China is the only country which shows a significant decline (from 62% to 42%).

A new trend that highlights the importance and the significance among generations is that the generation of Baby Boomers is a lucrative market for Asia as approximately 40% of Australians and New Zealanders who are taking an overseas holiday in the region are Baby Boomers and they spend billions of dollars. All data show a good prospect for this market in the region.

The tremendous growth in the region, especially for 2008 has also highlighted a wide range of social, cultural, environmental and economic policy issues that need to be addressed. These can be grouped under two broad headings: firstly devising strategies to meet the projected growth in demand so that tourism continues to produce economic benefits; and secondly, managing tourism effectively to ensure that its growth does not compromise the principles of sustainability.

Cricket : Less sports, more money

Dr.Abdul Ruff

There is a historical great game along the ancient Silk Road, but the concept is being played out in new disguises in many parts of the world today, the era of so-called terrorisms, state and private. Slamming Islam and tracking Muslims have become order of the Western civilization shred by countries like India for selfish reasons by contributing to the total tally of Muslim murders in their "backyards", Palestine and Kashmir, etc. India has gone all out of try the great game even in sports, in cricket, - more precisely. What in fact is happening in cricket is just another racket involving sport mafia and billionaires.

The Indian Premier League (IPL) tournament being showcased for nearly two months in Indian towns is essentially an attempt to maneuver in cricket tricks, deceptions and skills, but the real motive is to create a new crop of cricketers in every sub-field from different parts of India to store and use the stand-in- specialists in cricket. India wants to achieve this feat with the assistance of eminent cricketers from all countries that are involved in cricketeering

India has now endeavored to use the available international cricket mastery drawn form countries to train the Indian cricketers both the current teams and the junior ones. Hence several top masters in the field of cricket, from all sectors like bating, bowling, fielders, wicket keepers, etc, are seen toiling on the field to bat or bowl. The expertise of these cricketers is being used by India to make a strong contingent of Indian cricketers with surplus, so that Indian team can withstand any pressure form countries like Australia, South Africa, West India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan, etc. With a "formidable" national team with extra members always ready, India would be able to win every match it plays any where and it needs not go appeasing the foreign governments or cricket mafia for crucial victories with necessary "suitable favors"

The matter of fact is India has been in an awkward position facing strong teas like Aussies and South African and West Indies. At times, India fails to make even 100 runs losing all wickets and over quickly. The opponents have strong teams where most of the team-mates are good at bating and if one is out, unable to make sufficient runs, the next would supplement for that with quick runs and hundreds. Indians are awfully worried and feel ashamed, therefore, that its team fall apart facing strong teams, like a waste pack of useless cards.

In gearing up a strong Indian team, the foreign cricketers are helping India cricket players both senior and junior, with their tips, expertise and the Indian cricketers would learn more by playing with different country' cricketers. Hence the new strategy of involving renounced cricketers from the global cricket world. By playing with each cricketer from abroad Indians can feel the pulse of each top order cricketer their plus and minus points and they themselves as guests would shares some secrets of the trade as well. By using different colors blue-wearing Indian cricketers also enjoy non-blue blues.

New Delhi is keen to be the winners in every aspect including terrorism and in cricket it is a great challenge it has to face always. One does not know if with this new arrangement of joint cricket exercises, India probably hopes to get teams ready in which every batsman would make at least 100 and every bowler, fieldsman and wicket keeper would get at least one wicket in every match, no matter how many wickets are there. The plan is not too bad, is not it? However, Indian separatist mind is discernible in naming of IPL teams and many states and towns are neglected. Is it not a shame that world class cricketers have agreed to play with junior in India when they don't do it in their respective countries?

India strategies are really amazing! India can get any thing it sets its eyes on by crooks. Cricket I s nothing. It annexed Kashmir valley, known then as the Paradise on earth, under the pretext of Pakistan interference there, but quickly colonized it, militarized it with heavy weaponry and surveillance -cum-remote terrorism systems. Now thousands and thousands of Kashmiris have been killed by Indian forces there to keep "peace" in the region. So many unknown "pieces" have been discovered in grave-yards in Kashmir recently.

The present IPL joint cricket exercises are the extension of the joint cricket exercises conducted by India and Australia recently both in India and Australia. One outcome could be that the current cricketers would develop trends of depression in the days ahead when there could be more players. IPL would generate a few more millionaires among sportsmen.

All said and done one most important outcome of these inter-continental joint cricket exercises is to create a few sportsmen richer by crores each month, while over has been rising in the country along with price rocketing , immensely affecting the common people. When Manmohan Singh government could cleverly devise strategies to further the capitalist economy to appease the imperialist world, it does not undertake steps to lift the poor from the pavements of India. Manmohan still thinks he is just the chief of Reserve Bank to distribute the national resources among a few rich "patriotic" Indians and military establishment. He selectively chooses already wealthy persons for onward monopoly of Indian economic sources. As a prominent capitalist economy specialist Indian PM cannot be other wise.

Cricket, then, is nothing for India. Intention is not too bad and it does not look like being arranged by Indian cricket board and government by cleverly using "third" party from none-sports sector. Now it has come to fore that the countries leading capitalists are playing behind the Cricket for huge profits. Ambani, whose Reliance Mobiles loot the general public day in and day out would make more profits. Manmohan Singh as the governor of Reserve of India promoted such select classes of capitalism using the public money and he continues to gain the support of these "patriots" and they keep growing further with Indian cash.

It is funny to note that Manmohan, whose Congress party refused to give him a second run for presidency and instead chose Pratibha Patil woo was involved in a criminal cases, now is trying to rope in former Indian president Abdul Kalam on Indo-US nuclearism. Kalam's double-speak is also well known: he gives sermons on peace and wile helping India to develop missiles that could target the entire Islamic Middle East and beyond. It is awful to watch when Ms Patil distributed the national awards to a select group of Indian recent on Republic Day gifts for their "services and sacrifices" highest award for most "deserving" candidates.

However, India could not get USA, the strategic partner of the season under any provision under India-US nuclearism, play in the current cricket tournament, because Americans, like Israelis, don't play cricket. They are specialists only in genocides and destruction in Islamic world. But India could still claim partnership citing the crude fact that India also kills Muslims in its vicinity. India could now confidently ask USA to start playing cricket as part of strategic and nuclear pact between them. Alternatively, India could also choose an American, non-terrorist, game to play along with Americans and Israelis.However, initially India could defeat USA in cricket which the Indian media would blast as "India Thrash Americans" and India lobbyists could use that to silence the US Congress on Indo-US nuclearism.

But one question remians: Do the Indian strategists claim to be sharper and more ruthless than their counterparts in USA and Israel?

Is Africaundergoing a change?

Dr N Janardhan

THE World Bank is "broadly optimistic" that Africa is undergoing a fundamental change.

After decades, Africa's real GDP grew by over six per cent in 2007, outpacing the world economic growth of about five per cent. This is considered just short of the seven per cent growth needed to reduce poverty. Further, over the last seven years, Africa's real GDP growth has averaged over 4.5 per cent - the strongest since 1970s.

This transformation is not the result of increasing or better utilisation of Western aid, but mutually beneficial and growing Asia-Africa economic engagement.

The Bank states that Asia's growing trade and investment in Africa holds great potential for African growth. Asia now gets 27 per cent of Africa's exports, three times more than in 1990, and Asian exports to Africa is growing 18 per cent per year, faster than anywhere else.

Accelerating Asia-Africa engagement is part of a new global trend towards growing "South-South commerce among developing countries." The chief architects of this are China and India, whose trade bills with Africa, for example, have risen from less than $1 billion each in 1991 to $56 billion and $30 billion, respectively, in 2007.

The trade approach is contrastingly different from the emphasis on aid as a way of ending African poverty.

In his book, "The white man's burden: why the West's efforts to aid the rest have done so much ill and so little good," William Easterly asserts that the aid industry is deeply flawed. Challenging the Western notion that African nations are stuck in a "poverty trap" from which they can extricate themselves only with outside help, Easterly argues that some of the Asian countries that battled poverty effectively received very little aid per capita.

"Economic development in Africa will depend - as it has elsewhere and throughout the history of the modern world - on the success of private-sector entrepreneurs, social entrepreneurs and African political reformers. It will not depend on the activities of patronising, bureaucratic, unaccountable and poorly informed outsiders," he stresses.

Further, in a column aptly titled "The West can't save Africa," Easterly criticised G-8 doubling foreign aid to $50 billion and forgiving the debt incurred to fund previous "big pushes." (It is another point altogether that aid averaged only about $14 per person annually in the poorest countries over the last 50 years and estimates show the G-8 missing their 2010 aid target by almost $30 billion)

While the West focused on genocides and their casualties, child soldiers, Aids patients and famine, Asia tackled the African crisis from a practical, and not moral, viewpoint. It engaged Africa in trade and made it the beneficiary of a process that it created and benefited from.

To condemn Western efforts as futile would be wrong, but the fact is while aid is a one-way commitment, trade makes both parties stakeholders, thereby making transformation of poor societies easier.

The other difference is that while aid has a patronising quality to it, trade partnership is based on the "fundamental principles of equality, mutual respect and understanding t for mutual benefit.

Thirdly, Asia does not look at Africa in a homogenous fashion; its partnership is based on reality and particular conditions of the countries involved.

This is reflected in the African Union's statement that Asia has "truly understood" Africa's needs and aspirations. "Today, Africa does not need a guiding handtwe are equal partners in this race like everyone else."

In fact, Asia's engagement with Africa is not new. Among others, India was an unflinching supporter of Africa's independence struggle against Western colonialism. But the gradual Asian shift towards Western alliances amid market reforms took the sheen of their African ties.

The Asian economic boom, however, mandated both raw materials for their manufacturing sector and a huge market for their finished products, which Africa meets. Apart from hydrocarbons, Asia has helped push up the prices of other African exports such as platinum, iron and copper, all commodities used in manufacturing. As a result, copper prices, for example, increased six-fold since 2001 and platinum prices tripled.

Moreover, after being written off by many Western governments and companies, Africa has also witnessed a dramatic rise in Asian investment.

Even the Gulf countries are not far behind in contributing towards African resurgence. This region's investors have had a big influence on Africa's foreign direct investment doubling to $36 billion between 2004 and 2006. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE are actively involved in a range of sectors, focusing primarily on infrastructure, telecoms, banking and tourism.

As part of its expanding businesses abroad, the UAE, for example, is the second largest investor in Sudan after China with total investments of $7 billion. And, IAS International, a Qatar-based investment company, announced in March the launch of about $6 billion worth of projects in the Central African Republic.

Though the George W. Bush administration has outspent Bill Clinton government's African aid by three times, Bush has visited Africa only twice after taking over as president. In contrast, Chinese leaders visited nearly 50 African countries during 2006-07.

Apart from presidential and prime ministerial visits, China also hosted the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing in November 2006, during which China proposed measures to increase bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2010.

To realise this, Beijing committed to double aid and offered $5 billion in loans and credits by 2009, as well as promised to cancel "more" debt owed by African countries. Reiterating that "common development is the shared aspiration of the Chinese and African peoples," it also announced a $5 billion development fund to encourage Chinese companies to invest in Africa.

(Dr N. Janardhan is a UAE-based analyst on Gulf-Asia affairs, and can be contacted at njanardhan71@gmail.com )