The New Nation - Internet Edition

AP, Bangkok

Cyclone Nargis has devastated Myanmar's agriculture heartland, known as its rice bowl, experts said Wednesday, and could result in long-term food shortages for the impoverished country.

The Rome-based U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that five states hit hardest by Saturday's cyclone produce 65 percent of the country's rice. The region is also home to 80 percent of its aquaculture, 50 percent of its poultry and 40 percent of its pig production, the FAO said. Of most concern is the rice production. Since the impoverished country has produced enough to feed itself until now, it has been able avert potentially dangerous shortages as well as recent rice price increases, which have tripled recently on the global market.

"There is likely going to be incredible shortages in the next 18 to 24 months," said Sean Turnell, an economist specializing in Myanmar at Australia's Macquarie University. "Things will be tough." The FAO said the storm may even have affects on future harvests because it likely destroyed seeds kept in inadequate facilities.

"There is risk that stored rice seeds kept by farmers - usually under poor storage facilities - might be affected by the cyclone," it said in a statement. Once the world's top rice producers, Myanmar has in the past four decades seen its rice exports drop from nearly 4 million tons to only about 600,000 tons this year. Its exports are so small these days that few expect the cyclone will have any impact on world rice prices, which have skyrocketed recently in the face of higher fuel costs and greater demand from India and China.

Mostly due to the mismanagement of the country's ruling generals, the country's road networks and rice storage facilities have also fallen into disrepair and such things as fertilizer and credit for farmers is almost nonexistent.