The New Nation - Internet Edition

Non-conventional electricity

THERE are great potentials for Bangladesh to generate electricity from renewable sources. Electricity generation by using the sun's rays, from biomass or droppings of birds and animals, from the water by operating small hydroelectric projects, from the winds by running windmills and even from the waves of the ocean, are all possible in the context of Bangladesh. Electricity from these non conventional sources can be as much as 11,000 mw when the country has been generating some 3,500 mw on average, with the demand being some 5,000 mw from conventional sources.

This projection was made at a seminar held in Dhaka last year are all in the realm of probabilities. The same will require some time for planning, preparing and investing in all types of projects to generate the required amount of electricity. This is understandable. But one has to make a start at some point, even after suffering from lack of action in the past to be able to secure the future. The power generation potentials stated by experts are based of the experience of neighbouring India where the technologies of renewable energy have been developed with great success.

Bangladesh has great prospects for the development of solar power. This country gets good sunshine throughout the year. The experts said that Bangladesh can generate 10,000 mw of electricity from the solar source alone. There is also the opportunity to save about 1000 mw of electricity from the use of energy saving appliances. If this saving can be made by using devices that would help the more efficient use of electricity, then the same must be popularised extensively throughout the country. The amount of electricity to be saved, thus, is nearly equivalent to the total amount of current shortfall in supply compared to the demand.

Regional co-operation for rice

THAILAND has come up with a 7-year-old idea of floating an organisation consisting of five Southeast Asian countries of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam with the aim of having control over export prices of rice. This proposal which was mooted in 2001 remained dormant so long. Experts, however, are reported to have opined that such a proposal is likely to go 'nowhere'. They identified inability of the governments to co-operate with one another, impossibility of establishing control over the farmers on the question of price and choice of crop cultivation and buyers' option to go elsewhere for rice import as the main causes for the probable failure of the initiative. The countries may need some understanding over export price. So long as this is considered the lone purpose of the formation of the body, the proposal may not appear to have bright prospects.

Despite technological advancement, agriculture all over the world is still dependent on natural factors in varying degrees. Because of natural calamities being exacerbated by climate change, a rice exporting country may slide down to a deficit one. So, food security is a vital and probably the most important issue before any of these countries as well. In view of the ongoing global food crisis strengthening of food security has come to the fore. A sufficient food stock is also necessary to have control on prices. In view of all these factors, the proposal for the formation of some regional organisation is a good idea. It may be noted that the countries of South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC) reached in April 2007 a decision to establish a SAARC Food Bank. Bangladesh with other South Asian countries will be benefited from such a stock. Bangladesh should try to associate itself with similar initiatives taken in the region.

Insight: Microcredit fairy tale

Dr. Sudhirender Sharma

Daniel N. White is an electronic `acquaintance' who is connected because we share our common concerns around `micro-credit'. Daniel does a blue-collar job, lives in Austin, Texas and has a skeptical enquiring mind. Else, he'd not be questioning the Grameen Bank's micro-credit model of development. Having read one of my critical pieces in The Hindu (see link below), Daniel wanted some ideas for good questions to ask Nobel Laureate Mohd. Yunus, during the booksigning event at the local bookstore, BookPeople, in January 2008.

Says Daniel, `tmost everybody is brainwashed by the corporate PR that passes for news these days, and most everyone will be thinking that the Grameen Bank development model is the greatest invention to come down the pike since the wheel was invented. Yunus will be getting a bunch of ignorant, kissy-assed questions, and I'd like to ask him a good hard one or two.' Daniel's report on the event, being published by Black Commentator, makes interesting reading.

Yunus the media phenomenon. Kissinger was one once, Brittney Spears is one now. The mechanism by which it is decided that you get to be/should be one is one that requires investigation, as it is a most interesting and important sociological phenomenon. I am sure I am right that Yunus' selection is in large part for his being a cheerleader for capatalism. His only selecting good-looking women in the audience to ask questions makes me wonder if he might be heading down the Brittney Spears path. Should be an interesting show if that happens!

I listened to Yunus tell his story of how he came to start Grameen Bank, and how the important thing now was that he was doing things to promote busineses with a social objective. Yunus was weak on explaining what exactly the latter concept is and how it is supposed to work. While there are success stories from Grameen's files, they are proof of nothing but the desperate crying need for capital in the third world rural sector. The drawback to microcredit is that the historical record shows these rates in aggregate over time are horribly destructive. Microcredit's track record is short; history's is long. And nobody smart bets against history.

Yunus has definitely tapped into something in the American psyche, in particular the well-intentioned white educated younger demographic's. Yunus' praise of individualistic capitalism certainly is a message that suits the stone hearts and tin ears of ruling elite America, and that accounts for much of his stateside PR. Yunus is telling us a wonderful fairy tale about how capitalism actually works if done right, and how if done right in the rural Third World it will save those people from underdevelopment and lives of hardship and misery.

In the US, people are torn by their deeply ingrained beliefs in capitalism, which we most all have due to the relentless propaganda for same that has always surrounded us in our daily lives. Most everyone knows in their heart that the large corporations run things in this country, both the economic and the political end of things, and that they are fundamentally more heartless organisations than the mafia. People want to believe the propaganda they are surrounded with, even if their own experience tells them otherwise; it is just so much easier that way.

Yunus' fable of capitalist success yielding a saved third world allows people here the luxury of believing in the fairy tale we know consciously as adults is mostly false. It saves us all a great deal of cognitive dissonance, which after all is hard work. It may not work here that well, but Yunus tells us it will work THERE, a far-away there that we know not at all, and we are happy because of it.

(Yunus picked on three good-looking women for their questions following his speech and left Daniel fuming with his question: `Dr Yunus, why is it that your 36 % interest rate (or even more) microcredit loans are going to promote rural development when historically those same interest rates destroyed small farmer landowning and turned yeoman landed farmers to landless peasants?')

US Navy changing rules of engagement in the Gulf

Dr Mustafa Alani

IT WAS just after sunset on Monday, March 24, 2008 when a motorboat carrying three Egyptian traders approached the US container ship 'Global Patriot' in the Gulf of Suez as it prepared to sail towards the Mediterranean.

The 'Global Patriot' was carrying used US military equipment. When the Egyptian motorboat came too close to the US ship, it was warned to stop. These warnings went unheeded, and the crew of the US ship was ordered to open fire. One person was killed and two were injured as a result.

According to US Navy sources, the crew of the US ship had warned the small boats to turn away via bridge-to-bridge radio besides a series of other warning measures. However, one small boat continued to approach the US ship, and that was when the order to open fire was issued.

Egyptian sources explained that it was usual for fisherman and hawkers on small boats to ply the waters of the canal trying to sell cigarettes and other local products to ships passing through, and that the crew of the US ship possibly acted nervously and in an unjustifiable manner.

A statement issued by the US Fifth Fleet disputed the Egyptian claim about casualties stating that the crew of the 'Global Patriot' had only fired warning shots at a small boat approaching the vessel, following multiple warnings to turn away. "There were no reports from the Global Patriot of casualties," the statement said. Later, however, the US acknowledged that there had been casualties.

This incident in the Gulf of Suez is not an isolated one. In January this year, five Iranian speedboats challenged three US ships (identified as Navy cruiser USS Port Royal, destroyer USS Hopper and frigate USS Ingraham) in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the US version of the event, the Iranian speedboats had not only behaved provocatively and harassed the US vessels, but also made a threat through radio communication to 'blow them up.' The speedboats, believed to belong to Iran's Revolutionary Guards Naval command, came within approximately 200m (650ft) of the US vessels.

US Navy said that the Iranians withdrew as the US ships prepared to open fire and that the order to the crew to open fire was actually issued. The confrontation, which occurred in international waters, lasted about 20 minutes. This incident happened on a major oil-shipping route, and the consequences of such an incident could have sparked off a major military confrontation that would have undermined the security and the freedom of navigation in one of the most vital regions for the global economy.

Most recently, on April 25, a US ship, Westward Venture, working for the US Military Sealift Command fired warning shots in the direction of two unidentified speedboats in the Gulf waters, a few miles from the Iranian coast. The US military spokesperson said that the speedboats withdrew soon after the warning shots were fired.

What alarmed the US Navy even more, however, is the series of naval exercises conducted by the naval command of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps during 2007, which focused, among other skills, on perfecting mock attacks on ships by small speed boats packed with large amount of high explosives and on operations by divers using limpet mines.

Following the Strait of Hormuz incident, the US naval command in the region expressed its concern over the conduct of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps-Naval command describing it as 'provocative and irresponsible.'

Indeed, since Al Qaeda organised seaborne suicide attacks just off the Yemen coast on USS Cole in October 2000 and later on the French oil tanker Limburg in October 2002, the US Navy has been fully aware of the threat posed to its vessels by small speedboats and motor powered boats in general and understands the serious consequences of such attacks.

Indeed, from the three incidents which occurred in 2008 - the Strait of Hormuz incident and the Gulf of Suez incident, and the Gulf incident - it seems that the US Navy operating in the Middle East waters has a new and more forceful rule of engagement, which gives 'standing authority' to the commanders of US vessels to open fire on any suspected target believed to pose a potential threat to the safety of their ships.

By examining the two incidents when fire was either actually opened and caused casualties (Gulf of Suez incident) or when an order was actually issued to the gunners to open fire (Strait of Hormuz incident), it seems the US Navy's rules of engagement have specified the danger zone or the engagement zone as a distance not exceeding 200 metres. Thus any unidentified vessel (mainly small boats) approaching US vessels and failing to heed warnings to stop, by coming within the distance of 200 metres (or more) will be subject to attack by US forces.

Such a change in the rules of engagement could be seen as necessary in the context of the escalating and multiple security challenges facing the US forces in the region. These challenges arise from the US confrontation with Iran over the state's nuclear file and over the Iranian interventionist policy in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine. Besides, the unstable security situation in Iraq, and the continuing threat from Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups also pose security challenges.

The escalating US-Iran standoff in Iraq and in the Gulf waters has prompted researchers to examine scenarios for conflict between the two states, focusing on two main possible developments: a planned war and an accidental war (basically representing the scenario of a US retaliatory attack on Iran taking advantage of an escalation resulting from an accident).

In view of the recent developments related to the assumed changes in the US Navy's rules of engagement, the accidental war or accidental military confrontation scenario seems more possible than before.

(Dr Mustafa Alani is Senior Advisor and Director of Security & Terrorism Department at Gulf Research Center, Dubai)

Our story has just begun

Mohamed Ali Alabbar

DUBAI'S socio-economic transformation in the past three decades can be described as no less than miraculous - one achieved by the concerted efforts of both the Government and the enterprising private sector. A range of pioneering minds has worked in unison to achieve the powerful shift that has elevated this city to the league of a Megacity.

This city inspires people. Dubai encourages people to believe in their dreams, to dare and to do. Dubai reveals the power of single-minded dedication, the right leadership and sustainable goals.

Why is Dubai an awe-inspiring success? What makes it stand out? Where does the city find reserves for unparalleled growth?

For years, Dubai and the UAE have quietly pursued primary economic activities. Oil changed the face of the Arab world, but Dubai has outgrown its dependence on petroleum.

Early on, Dubai's leaders and its people saw opportunities as yet unrealised. That is what vision is all about. Vision is not a cliché. It is creating a signpost for our future. In the UAE, we have been fortunate to be led by exceptional leaders who understood the need to look into the future - fearlessly.

His Highness Shaikh Rashid Bin Saeed Al Maktoum, the late prime minister of UAE and Ruler of Dubai, saw in this once empty patch of sand by the Arabian Sea one of the world's largest ports and a bustling metropolis. The Jebel Ali port and the free zone was born. Some doubted him but he proved them all wrong.

More recently, His Highness Shaikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, UAE Vice President and Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, identified the power of information technology and media in building a knowledge-based economy. The results are here for all of us to experience today.

Today, inspired by this highly competitive, results-driven growth environment, people from over 180 countries call Dubai home. There is a sense of collective ownership among the city's residents, which gives Dubai its status as a world-class safe and secure destination.

In the coming decades, Dubai will further consolidate its accomplishments in infrastructure development. The Dubai Metro will redefine city commuting. Burj Dubai, the world's tallest building, will anchor one of the world's most vibrant lifestyle destinations - Downtown Burj Dubai. The Palm islands will offer a brand new and unique version of sustainable coastal living. The Dubai Mall will be a magnet for over two billion people from the Middle East, Asia, Africa and Europe, while Emirates flies into newer and exciting new destinations bringing the world to Dubai and Dubai to the world.

The catchments area of Dubai will have enlarged further. The 'Brand Dubai' footprint will have expanded to newer markets, and as His Highness Shaikh Mohammed envisages, Dubai Inc. will become synonymous with Catalyst Inc.

Twin engines of growth

DUBAI'S sustained status as a Megacity, in my opinion, will be led by two key engines of growth: tourism and services.

Creating niche growth hubs is central to the sustained growth of a Megacity. Dubai is naturally endowed with two core competencies - Tourism and Services - which the city has also built further upon over the past years.

Tourism has shaped the backbone of the economy, and several pioneering initiatives such as the Dubai Shopping Festival and Dubai Summer Surprises have contributed to not just building on the city's tourism potential but also creating vibrant socio-economic growth modules. Powering the growth of the tourism sector, Dubai has also consolidated its strategic position in aviation - through the phenomenal growth of Emirates airline and the Dubai International Airport.

The service sector is the second growth engine for Dubai. It encompasses all lifestyle-defining aspects such as financial services, banking, education, healthcare, real estate, retail, media and information technology. Services will redefine Dubai's predominant position in the years to come.

Building on tourism and services, Dubai will create opportunities not just for the city but for the region, and also for the new global markets where Dubai's industry leaders are already strengthening their equity and knowledge participation.

As a Megacity, Dubai's priorities will be economic competitiveness and employment generation. And in achieving this transformation, the operational word will be sustainability.

But how will we sustain this growth? How will we meet the Megacity challenges? How will we strike a balance between competitiveness and cost of living, and between the Gross Domestic Product and Gross Happiness Index?

The roadmap to Dubai's growth will require a holistic approach to Megacity management involving all stakeholders. In this drive, the use of modern technology will be paramount in delivering a more sustainable, environment friendly approach to growth. The private sector will play a more proactive role in enhancing efficiency and there will be a shift from demand management to supply scheduling.

Driving this change will be a new force: the youth of today. They will be at the forefront of creating a new Dubai for the generations that will follow them. They will continue to be the torch-bearers for a new tomorrow which we are building today. Dubai's story has only begun. I thank the Khaleej Times for covering the Dubai story over the last three decades and wish the team continued success in the many decades to come.

(Mohamed Ali Alabbar is Chairman, Emaar Properties PJSC )

Opinion: Expanding export trade

Ariful Huq

Bangladesh has great prospects for developing into a middle income group of country. She has no alternative other than utilising the potentialities she has and making concerted efforts to achieve economic growth. She can achieve this goal by expanding its export basket based on balanced development of all sectors of the national economy. Chief Adviser Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed the other day called upon the business community to boost up production of competitive items and their marketing internationally to achieve this lofty objective.

Balance of payment with most of the export trade partners internationally is in disfavour of the Bangladesh. With this huge trade deficit, she cannot keep pace with others. One of the most effective ways of coming out of this impasse is to expand the country's export trade. To boost up production and diversify export the government must adopt appropriate policies. A large population is a great advantage for Bangladesh over others. She must make proper use of this great force.

She must take a policy of mainly labour intensive production strategy through which she can solve unemployment as well as poverty problems. Introduction of automation and other sophisticated technologies is not basically suitable for the country at the present state of development.

Another important aspect of the policy should be to achieve self-sufficiency in production of food and other essential goods to meet basic needs of the people. An unfed and unclad nation cannot expand export basket infinitely.

Export performance awards will no doubt encourage the exporters. But what they need more are adequate bank credit on soft terms, lower rates of tariff on import of raw materials etc.

Local raw material used for producing exportable items should also be given similar tax treatment. More export processing zones should be established to boost up export.

But the most pivotal thing upon which successes of all these strategies depend is turning man into manpower. Be it development of agriculture and allied industries, handicrafts and value added goods, knowledge based sectors like outsourcing business and software export - all depend upon how successfully this development of manpower is achieved.

Expansion of export volume can only succeed if it is based on a balanced development and solid foundation of the national economy. A lopsided development of export oriented sectors to the neglect of others is not likely to bring sustainable results.