The New Nation - Internet Edition

Mohammad Shahidul Islam

The price of agricultural commodities has jumped into record heights and supply of daily foodstuffs such as rice, wheat, meat, fish, vegetables, eggs and dairy and poultry products has become scare, and a big question has been gnawing all: is climate change, droughts and floods in the Asian region causing shortages of daily foods?

It has turned clear that all around the world; governments are beginning to negotiate "secretive" barter arrangements as well as building up "reserve" for at least the next six months in a shot to face swelling social unrest.

The concern expressed by UN Secretary General Ban ki-moon on the global rise in food prices would no doubt ring alarm bells in the corridors of power in Bangladesh which is already virtually under siege by a surge in world commodity prices. That no less a figure than the UN Secretary General should take serious note of the phenomenon does not bode well for Third World countries like Bangladesh whose economies would not be able to withstand such an eventuality.

Time was when Governments were stressed to subsidize food items subjected to the vagaries of global price hikes which in a way induced stupor among the populace who anticipated the state to be their benefactor forever. The impact of high food prices has triggered unrest in dozens of countries, the latest in the Philippines, subsequent riots in Haiti and Egypt.

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) has estimated prices are likely to remain high for at least 10 years. "Rising prices have triggered a food crisis in 36 countries. The threat of malnutrition on a massive scale is looming." FAO has confirmed it is cutting food handout rations to some 73 million people in 78 countries.

"Food prices are now rising at rates that few of us can ever have seen before in our lifetimes," opined John Powell of the World Food Program.

The price of rice, Asia's staple food, has soared by 74 percent in the past year to an all time high. It went up by more than 10 percent in a single day in the past week. "Prices will keep going up as production fails to keep up with soaring demand," cautioned the International Rice Research Institute recently.

As food shortages grow and cereal prices soar, it is provoking riots throughout the Third World, the world's poorest people. The Philippines, once self sufficient in rice, is in the grip of a food crisis as "massive queues" formed to buy rice from government stocks. In a move to crack down on looters and hoarders, Philippine President Gloria Arroyo has "drafted" the military to distribute rice supplies.

ASEAN member countries Vietnam and the Philippines have failed to conclude a rice agreement. In a crisis meeting with the Philippine President Arroyo, Kevin Cleaver, from the UN International Fund for Agricultural Department told her there is now a "food crisis" facing the world, triggering unrest in dozens of countries around the world. Floods in central China this year displaced millions of people and devastated rice and corn crops. "Overall, China's harvest has fallen by 10 percent over the past seven years."

Rice-importing countries Bangladesh, Vietnam and Afghanistan have been thumped hardest, as the world's biggest rice producers including China, India and Indochina are restricting exports to protect their stocks and limit inflation.

It is bad to know; presently our country is facing its worst food shortages. Twice hit by severe flooding last year and devastating cyclone Sidr have left hundreds of families surviving on one meal a day after spending up to 80 percent of their income on food. Economists estimate 30 million out of the Bangladesh's total population of 150 million could go hungry if the present situation goes on.

Australia, one of the world's largest grain producers, suffered its worst drought last year, the worst for more than a century. Its wheat harvest fell by 60 percent. The World Bank predicts that global demand for food will double by 2030.

The current state of the economy is the result of wrong policy mix of the past governments and the consequences of galloping world oil prices would put the Government in a conundrum to meet the looming crisis head on.

According to a UN spokesperson urgent steps had been called for to assure world food security while no specific reasons have been ascribed to the emerging scenario.

Perhaps one reason could be that booming industrialisation has resulted in agriculture being relegated to the periphery with less production which in turn had given rise to the rising global food prices. While the need for maintaining food security had been raised time and again it is apparent little had been done in this regard.

However, as most experts contend today had we pursued this policy with some sacrifice on the part of the populace the country would have reached the stage of self sufficiency in food production by now and equipped to face the looming crisis. As is the case with Bangladeshis we always wanted quick fixes to our problems not looking ahead to the future.

One could only hope that the present food drive initiated by the Government would proceed with vigour and attain its intended results before the global situation aggravates.

This undertaking has now assumed great importance given the warnings emanating from world authorities. Therefore every endeavour should be made to accelerate the food production drive even by making special budgetary allocations. The effort will certainly be worth it in the long run.