The New Nation - Internet Edition

Warning from WB, IMF

SOME satisfaction is noted in official circles about the economy coming out of its stagnancy and getting poised to do well in the next fiscal year. While there are some grounds for this optimism from uptrends in some sectors, the same is not shared by external quarters who constantly keep watch on our economy such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB). These two organisations prepare regularly a joint 'global monitoring report' that sample the economic prospects of countries receiving assistance from the two donor bodies.

The latest version of this report has nothing encouraging to say about the economy. It rather underlined that the economy would have a growth of 5.5 per cent at best, the lowest among the major countries of South Asia, in 2008. The rate of inflation in Bangladesh during this period is projected to be 9.30 per cent in contrast with the lower rates of inflation in India and Pakistan. In sum, both in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) increase that also works as a benchmark for the estimation of per capita income and standard of living and measures of inflation, the position of Bangladesh would be seen to be compared favourably with its neighbours.

Clearly, this warning from the IMF and WB should be responded to in time by the ones responsible for the Bangladesh economy. The preparation of the national budget for the next fiscal year, is nearing completion. The coming budget would be extremely important for the economy. It must have provisions that would truly motivate the private sector on a large scale to take up additional entrepreneurial activities. The budget should also encourage the potential entrepreneurs with tax holidays, tax waiver and other favourable fiscal policies. Government's monetary policies will have to be applied with more imagination and skill with a view to similarly encouraging investments and entrepreneurship.

Need for quality seeds

AT a recent seminar in the city, experts stressed the need for both public and private initiatives to supply quality seeds and other inputs to farmers for increasing food production. They said hybrid variety seeds for different crops, particularly rice, should be developed locally keeping in mind the condition of soil and weather and to reduce dependence on import of seeds as well. The country has succeeded to more than double agricultural production over the last three decades by using HYV seeds, fertilisers and irrigation facilities.

Initiatives from both public and private sectors are needed immediately to set up modern seed farms in view of the growing demand. Supply of seeds to farmers would have to be ensured to support the 'grow more campaign'. In this regard some agriculturists put up the figures showing the wide gap existing between 'demand' and 'supply' of seeds in the country. In 2005-2006 the supply of seeds to farmers was mere 1,17,526 metric tonnes against the huge demand for 9,32,250 metric tonnes. Some proposals were made at the seminar for consideration by the government, particularly on behalf of the private sector, for the development of seeds.

Offering soft and easy loans for production of seeds should be made available on an urgent basis so that those who are eager can start projects without wastage of time. It has been observed that although there was a short supply of fertiliser during the current crop season, the country did not face any deficit of seeds because of the involvement of the private sector in the business. According

to the Department of Agricultural Extension, supply of quality seeds would have to be ensured for good harvest. The experts are of the view that it is possible to increase production by 20 to 25 per cent if the farmers use quality seeds.

Food crisis from climate change?

Mohammad Shahidul Islam

The price of agricultural commodities has jumped into record heights and supply of daily foodstuffs such as rice, wheat, meat, fish, vegetables, eggs and dairy and poultry products has become scare, and a big question has been gnawing all: is climate change, droughts and floods in the Asian region causing shortages of daily foods?

It has turned clear that all around the world; governments are beginning to negotiate "secretive" barter arrangements as well as building up "reserve" for at least the next six months in a shot to face swelling social unrest.

The concern expressed by UN Secretary General Ban ki-moon on the global rise in food prices would no doubt ring alarm bells in the corridors of power in Bangladesh which is already virtually under siege by a surge in world commodity prices. That no less a figure than the UN Secretary General should take serious note of the phenomenon does not bode well for Third World countries like Bangladesh whose economies would not be able to withstand such an eventuality.

Time was when Governments were stressed to subsidize food items subjected to the vagaries of global price hikes which in a way induced stupor among the populace who anticipated the state to be their benefactor forever. The impact of high food prices has triggered unrest in dozens of countries, the latest in the Philippines, subsequent riots in Haiti and Egypt.

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) has estimated prices are likely to remain high for at least 10 years. "Rising prices have triggered a food crisis in 36 countries. The threat of malnutrition on a massive scale is looming." FAO has confirmed it is cutting food handout rations to some 73 million people in 78 countries.

"Food prices are now rising at rates that few of us can ever have seen before in our lifetimes," opined John Powell of the World Food Program.

The price of rice, Asia's staple food, has soared by 74 percent in the past year to an all time high. It went up by more than 10 percent in a single day in the past week. "Prices will keep going up as production fails to keep up with soaring demand," cautioned the International Rice Research Institute recently.

As food shortages grow and cereal prices soar, it is provoking riots throughout the Third World, the world's poorest people. The Philippines, once self sufficient in rice, is in the grip of a food crisis as "massive queues" formed to buy rice from government stocks. In a move to crack down on looters and hoarders, Philippine President Gloria Arroyo has "drafted" the military to distribute rice supplies.

ASEAN member countries Vietnam and the Philippines have failed to conclude a rice agreement. In a crisis meeting with the Philippine President Arroyo, Kevin Cleaver, from the UN International Fund for Agricultural Department told her there is now a "food crisis" facing the world, triggering unrest in dozens of countries around the world. Floods in central China this year displaced millions of people and devastated rice and corn crops. "Overall, China's harvest has fallen by 10 percent over the past seven years."

Rice-importing countries Bangladesh, Vietnam and Afghanistan have been thumped hardest, as the world's biggest rice producers including China, India and Indochina are restricting exports to protect their stocks and limit inflation.

It is bad to know; presently our country is facing its worst food shortages. Twice hit by severe flooding last year and devastating cyclone Sidr have left hundreds of families surviving on one meal a day after spending up to 80 percent of their income on food. Economists estimate 30 million out of the Bangladesh's total population of 150 million could go hungry if the present situation goes on.

Australia, one of the world's largest grain producers, suffered its worst drought last year, the worst for more than a century. Its wheat harvest fell by 60 percent. The World Bank predicts that global demand for food will double by 2030.

The current state of the economy is the result of wrong policy mix of the past governments and the consequences of galloping world oil prices would put the Government in a conundrum to meet the looming crisis head on.

According to a UN spokesperson urgent steps had been called for to assure world food security while no specific reasons have been ascribed to the emerging scenario.

Perhaps one reason could be that booming industrialisation has resulted in agriculture being relegated to the periphery with less production which in turn had given rise to the rising global food prices. While the need for maintaining food security had been raised time and again it is apparent little had been done in this regard.

However, as most experts contend today had we pursued this policy with some sacrifice on the part of the populace the country would have reached the stage of self sufficiency in food production by now and equipped to face the looming crisis. As is the case with Bangladeshis we always wanted quick fixes to our problems not looking ahead to the future.

One could only hope that the present food drive initiated by the Government would proceed with vigour and attain its intended results before the global situation aggravates.

This undertaking has now assumed great importance given the warnings emanating from world authorities. Therefore every endeavour should be made to accelerate the food production drive even by making special budgetary allocations. The effort will certainly be worth it in the long run.

Give Mr. Carter a chance

Aijaz Zaka Syed

Two scenes from the Middle East this week offer an amazing study in contrast. They demonstrate how the region has dramatically changed over the past few years. And yet, the more the Middle East changes, the more it remains the same.

Just look at the warm reception Israel's foreign minister Tzipi Livni got in Doha, Qatar. The tiny emirate, home to Al Jazeera, rolled out red carpet for the visitor, who had ostensibly turned up to attend a regional forum on democracy and development.

Qatar Amir Shaikh Hamad Al Thani himself took the lead in enthusiastically welcoming the guest. Later, Arab officials queued up to shake hands with Ms Livni.

Around the same time, as Ms Livni was enjoying the traditional Arab hospitality in Doha, a frail, 83-year old peacemaker who happens to be a former US president was being given a taste of Israeli hospitality in Jerusalem.

Jimmy Carter, the original architect of Arab-Israel peace process and the Egypt-Israel accord in 1979, was made to feel as welcome as Bin Laden would be at Bush White House. Israel refused to offer security cover that is given to all visiting dignitaries. The Israeli agency Shin Beth refused to liaise with the security team that accompanies all present and former presidents.

Carter, the soft-spoken Democrat who received peace Nobel in 2002, was not allowed to visit Gaza, the world's biggest prison run by Israel.

What is Carter's crime?

He is guilty of believing that Palestinians are human too. And even as Israel, the US establishment and the whole of Western media have ganged up against Hamas and the Palestinians, this lone ranger has the audacity to engage its leadership.

More important, Carter seems to think there will be no peace and no solution to this most impossible of all conflicts as long as Hamas is not involved in the peace process.

Now what's wrong with that? Anyone with a nodding familiarity with the Middle East would agree acknowledge Carter's perspective.

In spite of a relentless campaign by Israel and its friends to discredit and destroy the resistance movement over the past several years, Hamas only continues to grow in stature and influence not only in the Territories but also across the Middle East and the world at large.

In fact, the more West tries to prop up the corrupt elite of Fatah, the more they drive the Palestinians into the Hamas' arms.

This despite the fact that Hamas is today without power thanks to Israeli and neocon machinations. Even the constant onslaught of Israeli jets on Gaza killing innocents on a daily basis hasn't succeeded in driving the Palestinians away from Hamas.

The question is why? It's because Palestinians and the larger Arab world view the Hamas as genuinely representing them. They see it as a force that is seeking to challenge the might of an arrogant and powerful state and its equally arrogant and powerful friends. More importantly, it is seen as a movement that can deliver them from this bondage and homelessness in their own land.

In fact, this is NOT about Hamas. This is about the cause that it has come to represent. This is the same cause that Arafat's Fatah and PLO once heroically represented and inspired imitation everywhere. So regardless of what Israel and the US have to say about Hamas, Palestinians see it as their hope and future. For the Palestinians, Hamas is not a terrorist outfit but a powerful force that is fighting for what rightfully and legitimately belongs to them.

This is a reality that is recognized by the Arab and Muslim world and some sensible souls like Carter elsewhere.

This is no defence of Hamas. But as long as the Israelis, the Americans and the West do not face up to this reality, there can be no peace in the holy land or the Middle East or the world for that matter. Israel can go on fooling itself and the whole world that it can ever win this war on the 'Islamist terrorists.' Because Hamas is Palestinian people and their struggle; just as Mandela's ANC represented the people of South Africa and Gandhi's Congress represented the people of India. And you can't wipe out a people and their quest for freedom and dignity, not when they are as free- spirited as the Palestinians are.

If Israel and company indeed want peace-I mean real P-E-A-C-E, not Sharon's idea of peace-and security, they wouldn't be playing these futile games with Palestinians. They would be talking to the people who really represent and speak for Palestinians.

Which in this case happens to be Hamas. This had been demonstrated in the elections held in 2006. Hamas swept those polls, only to be cheated out of power soon afterwards.

The argument that Hamas can't be part of the peace process because it is a terrorist organisation, holds no water. Hamas leadership has always argued that it's engaged in a legitimate freedom struggle and is fighting occupation, just as other resistance movements around the world have.

Let's not forget that this resistance, with its homemade rockets that seldom hit their target and occasional attacks on Israeli checkpoints and targets, is only responding to a far more brutal and devastating Israeli aggression on a defenceless population.

A case in point is the raid near Nahal Oz fuel terminal this week that killed three Israeli troops. In response, the Israelis killed 20 Palestinians, most of them civilians.

Even as the Arab and Muslim states are bending backwards to woo Israel, offering peace and so-called normal relations, the Jewish state is doing everything to infuriate the Muslims around the world with its persecution of Palestinians.

The Israeli war against Palestinian civilians has included methods and tricks that would shame the Nazis, from assassination to kidnapping, from imprisonment to torture and from racist segregation to old-fashioned all-round destruction.

Again, this is no apology for Hamas. All of its actions may not be above board. Some innocents might indeed have suffered thanks to its attacks on Israel. But they are nothing compared to what Israel has been inflicting on the Palestinians, day in and day out.

Besides, this is Palestinian land and all they are doing is fighting to get it back. This is legitimate resistance. Hamas is not the first organisation and it wouldn't be the last to do so.

As for the accusation that Hamas does not accept Israel's right to exist, Hamas refuses to recognize Israel and continues to fight it because the Jewish state refuses to acknowledge the Palestinians' right to exist and their rights over their land.

The world has to recognize this home truth just as it has done in the case of the IRA, ANC, the Viet Cong, the Afghan mujahideen and America's own independence struggle against the British empire.

If the world is indeed looking for a solution to this conflict, it has to drop its double standards and persuade the usurper to give up what doesn't belong to it. So who's ready to stand up for peace with Carter? For, as Bible says, blessed are the peacemakers!

(Aijaz Zaka Syed is a Dubai-based journalist and commentator.)

The other war of America

Phillip Knightley

WHEN, in the aftermath of 9/11, George W. Bush was mobilising the nation for revenge, he said, "If you're not with us, you're against us". It took some time for it to sink in that this included the American media. When it did sink it, American newspapers and television rushed to show their patriotism.

European editors were appalled as the media's critical faculties went out the window. The then director general of the BBC, Greg Dyke said he was shocked by how unquestioning the American broadcast media was during that period. He said American TV news stations "wrapped themselves in the American flag and substituted patriotism for impartiality."

Since then the American media seems to have come to its senses. The New York Times and the Washington Post have apologised to their readers over their coverage. Now author Susan Faludi, in her new book "The Terror Dream: Fear and Fantasy in Post 9/11 America" looks at the nation's reflexive reaction to the attack on the twin towers and finds something wanting that exposed a "counterfeit belief system".

She says that instead of enabling the country to cope with the very real emergency at hand, it divided Americans into two-men and women. "The attack on New York launched a concomitant attack on feminism, unleashing a torrent of regressive sexism in response to a sense of national impotence."

Faludi points to the emphasis on the sexy machismo of the Bush administration with headlines like "The Stud: Donald Rumsfeld", America's new pin up". Time and Newsweek promised a President who would be" lone ranger" and dragon slayer".

There were predictions that women would abandon their careers and return to their domestic duties, leaving their menfolk free to face battle. Faludi says that women were thus marginalised and excluded from being heroes themselves. Firefighters went back to being known as "firemen" and the many female rescue workers written out of the tale.

They were written out of the story of Flight 93, too. In the media version, a band of all-American sports heroes stormed the cockpit of the United Flight and overpowered the terrorists. Not true, says Faludi. A group did try to fight off the hijackers but failed to get into the cockpit and the group included at least one woman.

And what about the Jessica Lynch story, a story totally manipulated by Department of Defense propagandists. Private Lynch was captured by Iraqis and taken for treatment to an Iraqi hospital. Eight days later, a US Special Forces tea stormed the hospital and "rescued" Lynch, taking her away by helicopter.

The whole dramatic event was captured on video by a Pentagon team using night vision cameras. Her rescue was hailed by President Bush as an example of a core American value-they took care of their own people. Faludi has interviewed Lynch and she has confirmed it was not like that at all. The Iraqis were taking good care of Lynch after a devastating car wreck and had been trying to return her to the Americans before the raid took place. When Lynch resisted demands that she stick to the Pentagon story, the US Press turned on her.

Faludi writes, "Who got the blame in the US media? Feminists, for allegedly trying to pass of Lynch as a 'female Rambo'." Faludi says the result of all this is that any remotely feminist argument was instantly denounced as unpatriotic. There was a forty per cent drop in federal prosecutions of sex discrimination cases.

Sarah Churchwell, a lecturer in American literature at the University of East Anglia, reviewing Faludi's book in The Guardian, says Faludi offers a convincing case that there has been a wholesale assault on women's rights in the United States, all in the name of national security.