The New Nation - Internet Edition

Dr. M. S. Haq

London's Economic intelligence Unit (EIU) has forecasted a number of events that could take place in Bangladesh in the future in the domains of politics, election, and emergency rule. One of the leading English dailies of Bangladesh - The Independent - reported the matter, quoting UNB, Dhaka.

EIU forecasted a favorable position for AL to win the election slated for later part of the current year (2008), minus Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia, though - the two former prime ministers of Bangladesh and respective party heads of AL and BNP - in that election. The assessment of EIU is based on inter alia the latest situation in pertinent areas.

For AL to win the election, I believe, a more solid, integrative, result-oriented and sustainable management, as well as maintenance of above position by the party through the election would be vital, among other things. Further, the prospect of AL's eventual victory in the election could inter alia be affected - positively, negatively or otherwise and in varying degrees - by changes in mindsets, hidden agendas, parameters, environments, methods and mechanics that are or will be connected with or ancillary to matters of elections at people, governmental, non-governmental, political and other levels, as appropriate, through the foreseeable future.

It is becoming apparently clear Bangladesh would be required to cross several hurdles in the effort towards for example, a peaceful plus acceptable election in 2008, a proper transfer of power to the people's representatives after the election and a more and more stable, as well as progressive Bangladesh on a continuous basis. In that respect, factors such as: a timely poll; a poll that will be more people-oriented, more hustle free, more hidden agenda free, fairer, more transparent and less costly than previous polls; a poll that will enjoy popular support; a poll that will reflect, in clearer and more real terms, people's (Bangladeshis + others) visions, expectations and decisions (as appropriate) associated with the election and the subsequent transfer of power, per se; a poll, the process of which will respect the law of the land and the guardianship of free judiciary in pertinent areas; a poll, the process of which will not be contaminated nor corrupted, to a humanly possible extent, by unfair intentions, policies and practices; a free judiciary that will upheld the voter's sovereignty in pertinent election areas in a just and more accountable manner; a government that will be duty bound to protect and facilitate, as far as possible, the voter's sovereignty in above and related areas; a poll that will not be restrictive but integrative when it comes to ensuring widest, more meaningful and lawful participation of people, political parties (old and new) including inter alia AL and BNP - whether alone or in combination with one or more than one of them, and others; a poll that will help generate credible election results and winners; a poll that will facilitate the election of the right candidate at the right time and cost; a poll that will help prepare Bangladeshis and other for change for better through the future; and a poll that will lead to a safe transfer of power to the people within the shortest possible time; will be essential.

Taking into cognizance above and other requirements, several additional things, besides those of EIU, could be forecasted in areas of the country's election and governance for the period - between now (14th day of April 2008) and the first 100 days of the elected government. A number of them have been presented below - kindly note they are not immune to say, intervening and other variables: one, the election will be held as planned and it will not be delayed further as a result of say, emergencies - whether or not anticipated previously, whether or not created deliberately and whether within or beyond the control of Bangladesh and Bangladeshis. But having said so, it should be noted here, the consequences of price hikes, food shortages, and energy crises or other crises (politics related, ambition related, nature related, law and order related, terrorism related) - whether alone or in combination with others - could, at an extremely intolerable level, not only force the country, in the foreseeable future, to re-defining and re-organizing its priorities and programs in a significant way and on an urgent basis but delay the election even further, among other things. Such things are not, however, expected at this point in time given the prevailing situation; two, the inter party differential in terms of nature, scope, practicality, issue centeredness, tensile strength (used in a engineering sense) and result-orientation of election agendas could be, in an average sense, minimal. The same could be the case with agendas of independent candidates. But the acceptability, as well as marketability of those agendas in election markets especially, during 2008 election season - as and when that comes into effect - could be affected - in varying degrees though - by events that have been taking place in Bangladesh particularly, since the takeover of first caretaker government in 2007; three, the voting pattern this time (election - 2008) could perhaps create a vote composite, made up of voters along traditional lines plus voters along somewhat non-traditional lines plus voters even along 'neo-traditional' lines. It could be that the majority votes will go in favor of the 5-year change psyche that has probably come into force after the last BNP led coalition government and that will not perhaps be contaminated in a significant way up to and including the election, giving AL the leading edge in the election, per se. Or, the voters will vote largely in favor of an army influenced political government (in the future) that could include one or more than one of contesting parties.

It would be interesting to observe this time (election - 2008) as to how and to what extent the present day changed circumstances and their ramifications could be instrumental in inter alia shaping, on an average basis, vote related perceptions of the voters. It would also be interesting to observe this time (election - 2008) as to how and to what extent, the success or the failure or a mixture of both of the changed circumstances and their ramifications would affect the success or the failure or a mixture of both of voters in the effort towards revaluing their election vote as a more precious individual, as well as collective property than in the past and towards using their vote more decisively than again in the past in the hope of a subsequent rise in their per capita welfare as a consequence of the vote, for example; four, the holding of a free, fair, credible, and acceptable to all (I mean, as far as humanly possible) election in Bangladesh by the government in the near future could afford Bangladeshis and others inter alia an opportunity for observing and assessing the power and the strength of changed circumstances and their ramifications when it comes to their (circumstances + ramifications) contributions towards for example, liberating the country's general voters from usual vote related mindsets and detractions on account of preoccupations associated with their livelihood related hard up, per se. five, the factors such as, amounts of sympathy votes in the election, eventual decisions of say, presently - I mean, as of today, 14th day of April 2008 - undecided voters, the outcome of pre-election engineering and reengineering by political parties, as well as alliances, and efforts towards pouring old wine in new bottles in terms of say, election promises could be instrumental in, inter alia and as appropriate, creating a somewhat changed configuration of election matrices at winning and winners levels from those of the last national election, per se; six, an effort towards the enhancement of tensile strengths (used in an engineering sense) and success rates of plans, strategies and mechanisms that have been designed or will be designed by army-supported government for say, facilitating - both within and beyond the life time of the government - the preservation of, the protection of, the maintenance of, the sustenance of, and building upon, gains made or to be made by the government in the days ahead, could, in a sense, help promote issue centered voting in the election. Further, the success rate of contingency measures planned or to be planned by the government for dealing with say, anticipated responses - whether positive or otherwise - from Bangladeshis and others to relevant initiatives and actions taken by the government or to be taken by the government in its life time could be instrumental in inter alia help configuring election winning matrices in a way that could lead eventually to the formation of a like-minded government - I mean, in terms of present government - in the post election era, per se. But the outcome of those things could back fire too in certain ways.

An underlying assumption here is - relevant policies, institutions, appointees, decisions and outcomes of present government could, as appropriate, come under a strict scrutiny by the next government particularly, in an event, where mindsets and behaviors of the next government would not perhaps, in respect of above matters, be as conducive and friendly as they are today under present government, unless for example, a like-minded government comes to power and takes care of those matters in an expected manner; seven, the success of election - 2008 and the success in the post election period would depend on inter alia - how best and quickest political parties of Bangladesh, the government and others could agree to a workable interface between election related goals and programs of the government and those of political parties and derive benefits from that interface in pursuits of say, an acceptable election (?) and how best and quickest they could negotiate and implement a political contract covering such areas as, the transfer of power to the people's representatives on a mutually agreed date and in a mutually agreed manner (?) - save and except those areas that are non-negotiable under present law of the land, per se. Bangladeshis and others are yet to know more vividly about the exit plan and program of army supported government.

Further, how best and quickest Bangladesh could manage the present day election and governance related expectations of friends of Bangladesh - including inter alia the US, Japan, UK, and Saudi Arabia, neighbors of Bangladesh - including inter alia India, Pakistan, China and Sri Lanka, and development partners of Bangladesh - including inter alia World Bank and EU, and others - including inter alia ex-country media (print, electronic, etc.) from people of Bangladesh, political parties of Bangladesh, present government of Bangladesh, next government of Bangladesh (at least in the first 100 days, initially) and media of Bangladesh (print, electronic, etc.)? One of the reasons for subscribing to those expectations now, stems from the fact - the present day comparative, competitive and other advantages of Bangladesh, countries and organizations mentioned and concerned others depend on inter alia how best and quickest Bangladesh could face its challenges of security, stability and development with the help of democratically elected substantive government in ever competitive and increasingly interdependent environments at local, national, global and other levels?

eight, inefficiencies and ineffectiveness on the part of elected government in the first 100 days in handling for example, competing local plus national plus global plus other priorities, liabilities of present government, initial thrusts of emotion and expectation expected to be associated with the change of government, and attempts towards promoting a perception among Bangladeshis and others by the elected government that previous government was all wrong (per se), could be instrumental in inter alia marginalization of prospects for building upon gains made so far, lessons learned so far and best practices captured so far, in a result-oriented and sustainable manner, nine, the factors like - who could influence whom (?) for whom (?) why (?) how (?) for what (?) in exchange of what (?), at what costs (?) and at what rate of success or failure or both (?) at individual, collective and other levels could facilitate inter alia the quality and quantity of election and the resultant product of election.

As regards the minus two factor of election, it is possible either Sheikh Hasina or Begum Zia could lead the elected government again say, after the session of upcoming parliament is convened, by-elections are held, etc. But that would depend on inter alia the performance of their respective parties plus coalition partners (as applicable) in the election, the attitude and motivation of respective party winners and concerned others when it comes to their candidacy, their willingness to participate in the government should such opportunity arise, their individual plus core strength as leaders of people and the strength of people's perception as their followers; intra plus inter-party and other deals in relevant areas; the emergence of "plus x number factors" (I would like to call it in that way) and their impact on the future governance of Bangladesh; and the post-election plus the first 100 days priorities, challenges and opportunities in pertinent areas.

As regards the structural composition of next government, the chances of formation of a bigger coalition government cannot be ruled out - depending, however, on the quality and quantity of election outcomes, party-wise position of election winners, and attending incumbencies in the post election period, among other things.

In light of what has been discussed so far, it is expected army-supported government will: share its election and transfer of power related intentions and strategies with the people of Bangladesh and others in a timely, clear, transparent and accountable manner; direct its effort towards improving the confidence of people in it (I mean, the government) and facilitating the minimization of their present day hardship and sense of insecurity by putting those and other relevant strategies into action in a just, effective and efficient fashion; assist the voters in their effort towards participating the election in a meaningful manner and exercising their voting rights according to their own free will and without fear and favor; create initial conditions for defense forces of Bangladesh in pursuits of bringing about improvements in professional standards, command and control structures, and disaster management capabilities - in a progressively advancing manner; keep schedules and promises in pertinent areas; facilitate the right justice at the right time and cost for all; concentrate on damage control measures, as required; and prepare the ground for transferring lessons and best practices to say, the next government for their consideration and use for the betterment of Bangladeshi and others through the foreseeable future; to mention a few.

The last word: the factors such as - greed of politicians and others for say, the state power; abuse and misuse of that power by a variety of actors; a less than desired honesty, tolerance and objectivity at local, national and other levels; selfishness; an upward trend in the area of disloyalty to the nation and to one self, per se; an upsurge in needs and wants of opportunists and concerned others; a gradual weakening of people's power in certain key areas; an apparent upsurge in hidden agendas and ramifications thereof; a more frequent use of the power of information for deceiving people and creating camouflage for corruption and other anti-people activities including inter alia terrorism; failing to act in a timely and impact-oriented manner (used in a positive sense) in relevant areas; highly politicized bureaucracies; incompetence, incompatibility and disparity at relevant conceptual and operation levels; a less than required entrepreneurial skills and foresightedness; a continuous wastage of scarce usable resources; and a lack of solid unity for common purposes; could not only slow down the process of recovery from day to day and accumulated short falls in the life, living and continuity of Bangladeshis particularly, the poor and the disabled but those of world people at large - relative to time, space and other variables, though. Let us make an in-time and proper transfer of power to the people's representatives and the alleviation of people's sufferings as two of the competing priorities of the people, the government, the media (print, electronic, etc.), the friends of Bangladesh - including inter alia the US, and others, and pursue them aggressively. God bless.