The New Nation - Internet Edition

Wind power blows out of projection

Janet L. Sawin

Global wind power capacity reached 94,100 megawatts by the end of 2007, up 27 percent from the previous year, and then topped 100,000 megawatts by April 2008. (See Figure 1.) The roughly 20,000 megawatts installed in 2007 was 31 percent above the 2006 record for capacity additions. (See Figure 2.) New wind installations were second only to natural gas in the United States as an additional source of power capacity and were the leading source of new capacity in the European Union (EU).

The United States led the world in new installations for the third year in a row with a record-shattering 5,244 megawatts of wind capacity added, increasing cumulative installed capacity by 45 percent. (See Figure 3.) Wind power represented 30 percent of new U.S. capacity additions last year, compared with 1 percent of the total just five years earlier. The nation's wind capacity now totals 16,818 megawatts, second only to Germany, and is enough to power 4.5 million U.S. homes. The surge in 2007 was driven by the federal production tax credit and by renewable energy mandates in 25 states and the District of Columbia. The federal credit is due to expire at the end of 2008, though an extension is widely expected. Texas is the nation's top wind power generator, with 30 percent of total U.S. wind production last year, but six states now each have more than 1,000 megawatts of installed capacity.

Wind capacity in the European Union rose 18 percent in 2007, with new records in several countries. Wind power accounted for about 40 percent of new power installations across Europe. Additions of 8,554 megawatts-an increase of 12 percent over 2006 installations-brought the EU's total to 56,535 megawatts. Total wind capacity installed in Europe by the end of 2007 was enough to meet nearly 4 percent of the region's electricity demand in an average wind year and will avoid about 90 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually. For the first time in several years, Europe's wind market dropped below half of the global total as the EU accounted for only 43 percent of new additions worldwide; but Europe still has 60 percent of total global capacity.

Germany remains the world leader in wind power capacity, with a total of 22,247 megawatts, almost 24 percent of the global total. However, Germany's wind market experienced a significant slowdown in 2007. Rising turbine prices in conjunction with falling payments to wind-generated electricity have temporarily made the German market less attractive to developers than the U.S. and British markets are; Germany has also experienced an increasing scarcity of good onshore sites. Only 1,667 megawatts of new capacity were installed in 2007, 25 percent less than added during the previous year. Despite this, the share of electricity that Germany obtained from renewable sources-half of which comes from wind power-continues its rapid rise. Wind power generated the equivalent of 7.2 percent of Germany's electricity consumption in 2007. Windy northern Schleswig-Holstein now aims for the wind to generate all of that state's power by 2020, up from 30 percent today.

Spain led Europe in new installations in 2007, now ranking third worldwide in total wind capacity. An estimated 3,522 megawatts were added last year, bringing the nation's total to 15,145 megawatts, enough to meet 10 percent of Spain's electricity needs.

Other countries in Europe that experienced significant growth in 2007 include France (888 megawatts added), Italy (603), Portugal (434), and the United Kingdom (427), and each of these countries now has total capacity of well over 2,000 megawatts. The United Kingdom and Portugal, however, both experienced slower growth than in 2006. Although Europe (mostly Germany and Spain) and the United States now account for 78 percent of the world's installed wind power capacity, more than 70 nations-from Australia to Zimbabwe-now tap the wind to produce electricity.

The biggest surprise is China, which was barely in the wind business three years ago but which in 2007 trailed only the United States and Spain in wind installations and was fifth in total installed capacity. An estimated 3,449 megawatts of wind turbines were added in 2007, bringing China's provisional total to 6,050 megawatts and already exceeding the government's target for 2010. (An estimated one fourth of this capacity is still not connected to the grid, however, due to planning problems.) Another 4,000 megawatts are expected to be added in 2008 and, based on current growth rates, the Chinese Renewable Energy Industry Association predicts that China's wind capacity could reach 50,000 megawatts by 2015.

Elsewhere in Asia, India added 1,730 megawatts of new capacity and continues to rank fourth overall for total installations, with an estimated 8,000 megawatts. Other regions and countries experiencing significant growth include Canada (added 386 megawatts), New Zealand (151), Latin America, where Brazil added 161 megawatts and Chile installed about 18 megawatts, and northern Africa, where Egypt added 80 megawatts.

These dramatic increases in capacity took place against a backdrop of serious turbine shortages. Wind turbines require some 8,000 components, and suppliers of many of these parts need years to ramp up production. Parts shortages have affected the United States in particular, where numerous projects have been put on hold. As a result, several European companies that had the funds and foresight to lock in orders of new machines have taken this opportunity to buy up smaller companies and utilities to gain a foothold in the United States, where wide open spaces promise an enormous future market.

Manufacturers are now positioning themselves to increase production of gearboxes, rotors, and other components, and it is expected that this will eliminate the turbine shortage by sometime in 2009. For the short term, however, the turbine shortage could dictate how quickly the industry will grow.

These growing pains have affected the economics of wind power. Over the past 15 years, the costs of wind-generated electricity have dropped by 50 percent, while efficiency, reliability, and power rating have all experienced significant improvements. But costs have increased in recent years due to the turbine shortage, rising material costs, and increased manufacturing profitability. (In the United States, costs have also risen thanks to the falling value of the dollar relative to the euro.) Despite the higher costs, wind power remains competitive with new natural gas plants, and all conventional plants have seen similar construction cost increases. Wind power will become increasingly competitive with coal as more countries put a price on carbon.

The global wind market was estimated to be worth about $36 billion in 2007, accounting for nearly half of all investments in new renewable power and heating capacity last year. As many as 200,000 people around the world are currently employed by the wind industry. These numbers will only rise in coming years.

The EU is now committed to generating 20 percent of its primary energy with renewables by 2020, which means that these sources will need to provide about 35 percent of the region's electricity in 12 years, up from 15 percent in 2007. Wind power is expected to account for most of that increase. And the potential for the United States, China, and many other countries is enormous.

The wind industry has consistently blown by past projections-BTM Consult ApS, for example, forecast in 2002 that global capacity would reach 83,000 megawatts by the end of 2007, far short of the 94,100 megawatts that it actually did achieve-and it could continue to do so for years to come.

(Source: Worldwatch Institute)

Wind power trends

Washington, D.C.-Global wind power capacity rose 27 percent in 2007 to more than 94,100 megawatts, led by capacity additions in the European Union, the United States, and China, according to the latest Vital Sign Update from the Worldwatch Institute.

New wind installations were second only to natural gas in the United States as an additional source of power capacity and were the leading source of new capacity in the EU. In China, the estimated 3,449 megawatts of wind turbines added last year propelled China past the government's ambitious wind power target for 2010.

The addition of a record-breaking 5,244 megawatts of wind capacity in the United States in 2007-enough to power 4.5 million U.S. homes-was driven by the federal production tax credit and by renewable energy mandates in 25 states and the District of Columbia. The nation's wind capacity now totals 16,818 megawatts, second only to Germany. The production tax credit is set to expire at the end of this year. "If Congress acts quickly to extend the tax credit, the U.S. will likely pass Germany to lead the world in wind power within the next two years," according to Janet Sawin, a Worldwatch senior researcher and the author of the update.

Germany remains the world leader in wind power capacity, with almost 24 percent of the global total (22,247 megawatts), but it experienced a lackluster year in 2007. Still, renewable energy resources now generate more than 14 percent of Germany's electricity needs, with about half of this coming from wind. Spain led Europe in new installations in 2007, now ranking third worldwide in total wind capacity (15,145 megawatts). France, Italy, Portugal, and the United Kingdom all experienced significant growth last year as well. In all, EU wind power capacity rose 18 percent in 2007, and the region is home to 60 percent of global installed capacity.

China was the biggest surprise in 2007. Barely in the wind business three years ago, China trailed only the United States and Spain in new wind installations in 2007, and ranked fifth in total installed capacity (6,050 megawatts). However, an estimated one-fourth of this capacity remains unconnected to the grid due to planning problems.

This explosive growth occurred amidst a backdrop of serious turbine shortages, a challenge that is expected to be ameliorated sometime in 2009. Despite higher costs due to turbine shortages, rising material costs, and increased manufacturing profitability, wind power remains competitive with new natural gas plants, and all conventional power plants have seen similar construction-cost increases. Wind power will become increasingly competitive with coal as more countries put a commodity price on carbon.

The global wind market was worth an estimated $36 billion in 2007, accounting for almost half of all investment in new renewable electric and heating capacity. As many as 200,000 people are now employed in the wind industry worldwide. These numbers will only rise in the coming years as the EU seeks to meet aggressive 2020 targets for renewables and as the United States, China, and other nations realize their enormous potential for wind power.

"The wind industry has consistently blown by past projections," says Sawin, "and it will likely continue to do so for years to come."

(Source: Worldwatch Institute)

Temperature and Climate Change

Manfred Zysk

Global Warming is becoming a more complex issue, as the climate is changing and more severe weather patterns emerge. Fossil Fuel Depletion can reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) and greenhouse gases eventually if an alternative to oil is allowed to be developed, but the oil industry is determined to keep control over the oil, auto industry, and the energy field. The oil industry is trying to keep the world economy afloat, but has problems to meet the world=s demand for oil due to oil depletion and constant population growth. Pumping oil from reservoirs at maximum capabilities to satisfy world demands, while exploration and finding new oil fields are diminishing and become futile, then the oil depletion rate is heading into a virtual nosedive in the near future.

Because of the dissension and turbulence about the validity of Global Warming and Climate Change facts by the political right factions, oil companies, and the news media, I have taken the time to analyze and dissect the latest available NASA Satellite Ozone Hole Size data, detailed graphs and charts that have been furnished by the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center from annual 1980 to 2007 at: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) monitors the progression of the ozone hole from space and on the ground in Antarctica.

My research was to establish if there is any solid and actual proof if Global Warming and Climate Change is becoming worse according to a rational progression of data from 1980 to 2008, and to make this data available to the public from other sources, than from my own research. My research involved various factors, and covered the gradual progression of the size of the ozone hole, the progression of the ozone hole duration (season) in days, and the steady increase in volume and concentration of Carbon Dioxide in the Stratosphere at: www.theozonehole.com

My research has shown very large variations and fluctuations in data and graphs, but when analyzing these variables from 1980 to the present, then an absolute progression in data is evident toward larger ozone holes, major increases in annual CO5 concentrations from a high of 3 million Square Kilometers in 1980 to 24 million Square Kilometers in 2007, and a 32% extended ozone hole duration between 9 to 19.5 additional days over a period of 10 and 27 years. Due to my latest analysis of severe weather fluctuations in the summer and the winter seasons, this planet could experience drastic and worse weather seasons with very hot summers and very cold winters.

Scientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute of the Helmholtz Scientific Association in Germany are now involved in factual climate models pertaining to atmospheric temperature fluctuations, polar vortexes, Arctic Oscillations, Stratospheric Ozone Chemistry and air flow patterns at the Arctic and Antarctic Polar Regions involving complex global climate models by linking the atmosphere, ocean temperatures and ocean currents or gulf streams from satellite and on the ground observations. At this point their research contains Astill a high level of uncertainty,@ but will be factored into future climate calculation models. Please see:

Increased variations in the cold winter climate causes many people to question global warming and climate change, and dissenters are calling global warming a fraud, without having all the facts, and insufficient basic

knowledge about the weather. As the world population multiplied during the last 1,000 years, huge, global forested lands have been cut down for building houses, and for heating and cooking. Gradually the oxygen content decreased and the carbon dioxide concentrations increased accordingly and have been absorbed by the oceans, vegetation and in the atmosphere. Today, the world population consumes vast amounts of fossil fuel and the carbon dioxide from fossil fuel and manufactured airborne chemicals and gases amount to staggering billions of tons of acids in the atmosphere that then causes the destruction of the ozone in the stratosphere. As a result, the ozone layer around the world is becoming thinner and the most drastic effects are shown in the cold arctic pole and Antarctic pole regions, where the carbon dioxide and acids are most active and destructive.

When considering all the climate variables, the continued thinning of the ozone layer, and ocean water evaporation, and present carbon dioxide/chemical emissions, it is difficult to determine at this time if this planet is heading into a hot desert type planet, or if this planet is headed into another ice age in the near future. This research involves the thermal functions and temperature fluctuations on an annual basis over a period of time, and calculating the effects of global carbon dioxide and chemical emissions as well as the temperature fluctuations of the gulf stream, jet stream, ocean currents, ocean acidity and water evaporation.

Certain physics markers and indicators already point toward a direction that could create a hot, desert type planet or the beginning of a new ice age. Major reductions in carbon dioxide could perhaps prevent the severity of these massive temperature fluctuations, and stabilize the world atmosphere for a habitable future of the human race, but that is wishful thinking in view of our present political arrogance and world economic domination plans.

Biofuel produces equally large quantities of carbon dioxide and biofuel production will be affected by Global Warming and Climate Change, as droughts, land degradation and salination are accelerating from present world land abandonment the size of Indiana (37,000 Square Miles) every year, and summer temperatures are expected to move northward several hundred miles in a relatively short time span.

This is not a time to place the blame or to condemn the causes for global warming, climate change and ecosystems any longer, but we are at a point in history where it becomes necessary to identify and eliminate the carbon dioxide emissions most effectively. Half-way measures will not be an option any longer in view of the current climate disasters caused by hurricanes, tornados, floods, droughts, rainfall, thunderstorms, snowstorms, blizzards, high winds, major temperature swings, polar ice melting and rising global ocean water flood levels. NASA scientists, and scientists from the World Glacier Monitoring Service in Zurich stated that Arctic ice is already melting before the winter season is over, and the thinning and melting of glaciers in Alaska, Antarctica and Himalayas has more than doubled between 2004 and 2006.

Carbon Dioxide with other chemical gases are most destructive in the stratosphere at a temperature of minus 108° F. during the cold winter months in the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Carbon Dioxide also causes thinning of the global ozone layer. The Ozone Hole at Antarctica has covered an area of 29.5 million square kilometers, but contract during the summer months. The acidity of CO2 causes large holes in the Ozone layer at the Arctic and Antarctic Poles, and allows the warmer temperatures to vent into space, and then draws the frigid, cold space temperatures into the earth atmosphere predominantly during the winter months, and mixes with the atmospheric moisture to produce severe snow storms and winter weather patterns. As the winter season progresses in the Antarctic and the temperatures become colder, then the CO2 acidity forms the ozone hole. As the CO2 progressively destroys the ozone, the ozone hole becomes larger and forms swirling irregular vortexes caused in part by the venting of warmer temperatures at the periphery into space, and the extreme cold temperatures gushing into the atmosphere from space. During this on-going process, the ozone hole is becoming larger, and the effects of severe cold winter temperatures are then evident in the Antarctic and the Arctic, until the equatorial region aligns itself with the sun toward the spring season. The ozone hole now stays open more than double in approximately the last 25 years.

The summer months melt the polar ice, and warm the Atlantic Ocean Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream warmer water alters/reduces the ocean circulation flow pattern and generate more CO2, along with the huge amount of CO2 produced from permafrost, tundra and peat bogs (1/4 size of the entire Northern Hemisphere). The global ozone layer has become thinner and its effects are that the sun rays are less defused and more readily penetrate onto the earth=s surface, which then are the cause of warmer summer temperatures in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, and then result in more droughts, hurricanes and changes in global weather patterns. The thinner ozone layer allows the sun rays to produce more heat during summer months, but the extreme cold from space does not penetrate the global ozone layer entirely, and the ozone layer still provides a shield.

This explains why we have major global weather fluctuations during the summer and during the winter seasons. The next obvious question is: Will this planet become warmer or colder, when, and to what extend will this climate change occur in the near future, or in the next 40 years? If and when the ozone layer becomes very thin, then the cold temperatures from space will cool down our atmosphere, and could bring about a new ice age.

Then how much time do we have to make some meaningful changes and adjustments? What technology has to be developed and marketed worldwide, and at what costs? Unfortunately, Global Warming conditions are much faster accelerating than expected by most researchers and scientists. Research satellites over the poles provide valuable information of current and future atmospheric conditions, but a complete overview of Global Warming is necessary at this time, and time is of the essence, before this becomes an unmanageable world crisis.

It now becomes obvious that everybody and all businesses take an interest in a concerted effort to resolve global warming, climate change and a replacement for oil/fossil fuel, or otherwise an unprecedented economic downturn on a global scale is possible. To rely on high profit oriented corporations to produce the required Climate Change Technology and meaningful results, would in reality amount to accept human bondage. This has been my experience for 50 years, and by no means should this be allowed to occur.

(Global Warming and Fossil Fuel Depletion is misunderstood and denigrated by a large portion of the government and corporations because of reductions in corporate financial profits.)