The New Nation - Internet Edition

UNB, Dhaka

London's Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) forecasts that, belying electoral reforms, dominance of the existing political parties will remain intact and the parliamentary contest again pit the Awami League against BNP.

"The next election is likely to be fought with new leaders at the helm of both parties…given the fact that the BNP has split into two factions, the AL is in a favourable position to win the election," says the EIU in its latest outlook on Bangladesh politics.

It said charges of corruption filed against two former prime ministers-Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina-are likely to prevent them both from taking part in the elections.

The EIU said full constitutional rights are unlikely to be reinstated before the second half of this year, and "we expect the state of emergency to re main firmly in place until the parliamentary election".

The London-based long-range economic intelligence figures out that the country's baroque political scenario could be back to square one, despite the implementation of electoral reforms. After the polls, "the political scene will continue to be dominated by the existing political parties", it forecasts.

The EIU, the intelligence wing of the world-famous magazine 'The Economist', says the caretaker government may relax some restrictions under the current state of emergency. The nationwide ban on indoor political meetings may be dropped to allow political parties to discuss reform measures proposed by the Election Commission.

It said the government may even suspend emergency rule temporarily in the districts scheduled for municipal and city corporation elections. However, full constitutional rights are unlikely to be reinstated before the parliamentary elections.