The New Nation - Internet Edition

Hillary leading in four of the six Democratic primary states

Agencies New York

New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is leading in polls -- for now -- in four of the six Democratic primary states that vote between now and the end of May, while Illinois Sen. Barack Obama holds a commanding lead in one.

The biggest of the prizes -- Pennsylvania with its 188 delegates -- votes April 22. Clinton has been leading there for weeks but new surveys out Tuesday suggest that lead may be eroding.

Two other new surveys -- for Indiana, which votes May 6, and Kentucky, whose primary is May 20 -- also show Clinton in the lead, and a survey last week had her ahead in West Virginia which votes May 13.

Obama's biggest advantage is in the May 6 North Carolina primary where polls have shown him comfortably ahead. North Carolina has 134 delegates.

No recent poll was available for Oregon which votes May 20.

Taken together, these states account for 554 delegates. Clinton's campaign faces the challenge of making a big delegate haul given that the latest Associated Press tally shows Obama ahead of her by 1,624-to-1499 delegates, with 2,024 needed to nominate.

By the Numbers In the battle for Pennsylvania, Rasmussen Reports has Clinton's lead over Obama down to 47 percent to 42 percent in a survey conducted March 31. The margin of error is 4 points. But SurveyUSA still has her ahead of Obama with a double-digit lead of 53 percent to 41 percent. This poll was conducted March 29-31.

Both pollsters agree that Clinton's lead is shrinking since their last survey. Rasmussen's March 24 poll had Clinton ahead 49 percent to 39 percent, and she had been leading in its March 12 poll by 51 percent to 38 percent. A Franklin & Marshall poll conducted March 11-16 had Clinton ahead 51 percent to 35 percent. The erosion of Clinton's lead could be due in part to Obama's decision to make a serious push in Pennsylvania in hopes of a knock-out blow despite the long advantage she has held there.

The Rasmussen poll says only 56 percent of Clinton supporters say they would vote for Obama over McCain if Obama wins the nomination compared with 40 percent who said they would not likely vote for him. If Clinton won, 69 percent of Obama supporters would vote for her compared with 29 percent who would not. Fifty-four percent of voters named the economy as the top issue and, of those, Clinton has a 16-point lead over Obama, Rasmussen says. Among the 19 percent who named Iraq, Obama has a 17 point advantage.

SurveyUSA says the major factor in Clinton's declining lead was a swing to Obama by men voters. The pollster also says Clinton is heavily favored by voters who are most concerned about the economy.

In North Carolina, two polls had Obama with a commanding lead.

An American Research Group poll released Monday showed a 13 percentage point lead for Obama among Democrats. He leads Clinton 51 percent to 38 percent, and has a solid margin among men, women and African-American voters. There is no appreciable difference in his lead among the 18-49 age group and the 50-and-older group, getting 51 percent of support with each cohort in the latest statewide poll.

Clinton still has an advantage among white voters, currently sitting at 49 percent support to Obama's 37 percent. Twenty-two percent of respondents said that they would never vote for Obama in the state's primary, and 30 percent of respondents said the same about Clinton. The poll was conducted March 29-30 and the margin of error is 4 percentage points.

In a Public Policy Polling survey conducted March 29-30, Obama leads 54 percent to 36 percent. PPP's Dean Debnam noted that Obama runs strongly among voters who never have participated in a primary, leading among that group by 60 percent to 32 percent. The economy and jobs are cited as the most important issue by 48 percent of likely Democratic voters with Iraq second at 25 percent. Clinton has a 53 percent to 36 percent lead among white voters (57 percent of the sample) while Obama leads among black voters (36 percent of the sample) 81 percent to 11 percent.

Over 2.77m Iraqis internally displaced: UN

AFP, Geneva

The number of internally displaced Iraqis rose to more than 2.77 million people by the end of March, some five years after the US-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein, the UN refugee agency said Tuesday.

More than half of the displaced were uprooted after the Al-Askari shrine bombing in Samara in February 2006 which sparked a wave of ethnic violence across the country, UNHCR spokeswoman Jennifer Pagonis told journalists. The new report was produced by UN High Commissioner for Refugees, the International Organisation for Migration, and other UN agencies and NGOs.

Displacement was now continuing at a much lower rate, at least partly because communities were now much more homogenous, as many minorities targeted for persecution had sought refuge among their own kind.

Although there had been a small trickle of people returning to their original homes, only a few families have returned to areas under the control of another sect, it noted.

"No members of minority groups (Christians, Sabaean-Mandaeans and Yazidis) have been reported to be among the returnees," the report said.

The IDPs' lot remains miserable with more than a million people in need of adequate shelter and food and more than 300,000 people without access to clean water.

Two million Iraqis have also fled to neighbouring Jordan and Syria, where social and health services are struggling with the influx.

Abbas discusses Mideast peace with Saudi king

AFP, Riyadh

Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas held talks with King Abdullah on Tuesday on Middle East peace efforts during a brief visit to Saudi Arabia, the Palestinian ambassador in Riyadh said.

Abbas "briefed the king on his latest talks with (US Secretary of State Condoleezza) Rice during which she promised to exert further efforts to push forward the negotiations" between the Palestinians and Israel, Jamal Shobaki told AFP.

Abbas, a frequent visitor to Saudi Arabia, met with Rice in Jordan on Sunday and Monday, after which he announced he would resume talks with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert suspended seven weeks ago in protest at a deadly Israeli blitz on the Hamas-run Gaza Strip.

Shobaki said that during his meeting with Abdullah, Abbas "stressed the need for a more active US role in putting pressure on Israel, and said there would be important moves regarding the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations in the coming stage."

The Palestinian envoy said the discussions also touched on a Yemeni plan aimed at reconciling Abbas's Fatah party with its Islamist rival Hamas, but he did not give details.

Hamas and Fatah agreed in Sanaa on March 23 to open their first direct talks since the Islamists' seizure of the Gaza Strip last June, but they have since been bickering about the meaning of the Yemeni-brokered blueprint.

Saudi Arabia had itself brokered a power-sharing deal between Hamas and Fatah in February 2007 which led to a short-lived unity government.

Bush pushes for NATO expansion

AP, Bucharest

President Bush renewed urgent calls Wednesday for NATO nations to allow Ukraine and Georgia to start the admission process over Russian objections and to counter Osama bin Laden's latest threats to Europe by stepping up their efforts in Afghanistan. Hoping to set the stage for a summit of leaders from the trans-Atlantic alliance here this week, Bush also said that he remained committed to building a U.S. missile defense system in Europe fiercely opposed by Moscow and that the United States would not endanger Iraq with precipitous U.S. troop withdrawals. On the eve of his last NATO summit, Bush lobbied fellow leaders on behalf of NATO expansion. He argued that the alliance should be open to all European democracies, for now the former Soviet republics Ukraine and Georgia but also others in the future. Arguing against the misgivings from France and Germany that opening the process to Ukraine and Georgia could overly harm relations with Moscow, a needed energy supplier, Bush said a larger NATO is not a threat to Russia.

"We must make clear that NATO welcomes the aspirations of Georgia and Ukraine for membership in NATO and offers them a clear path forward toward that goal," the president said. "NATO membership must remain open to all of Europe's democracies that seek it, and are ready to share in the responsibilities of NATO membership."

The half-hour speech allowed Bush to forcefully and unapologetically make his case on all of his top NATO agenda items, getting the spotlight in the summit host city virtually to himself before the meetings get under way Wednesday night. He addressed about 500 local political and business leaders in a marble hall distinctive for its two glass-topped domes. Bush also was seeing NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer before the summit's official launch at a Cotroceni Palace dinner.

Talks over Mugabe exit after Zimbabwe elections

AFP, Harare

Rival camps held talks Tuesday over an end to Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe's 28-year rule with opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai saying weekend polls had given him a mandate for historic change. While there was no public admission of defeat by Mugabe, several diplomats and even a senior source within his own party said the 84-year-old had agreed in principle to stand down. Tsvangirai, whose party has already claimed victory in Saturday's joint presidential and parliamentary elections, also declined to declare himself the victor or confirm that any deal was in the pipeline. But while he said he would await the official result from the country's electoral commission, Tsvangirai told reporters that he had been given a clear mandate for change.

"I am prepared to wait until as long as the ZEC (electoral commission) confirms the results," Tsvangirai told a news conference in his first public appearance since Saturday's presidential and parliamentary elections.

But while he sidestepped the question of whether he now considered himself the rightful president, the Movement for Democratic Change leader left little doubt that he expected to soon be elevated to State House.

"After the 29th of March, Zimbabwe will never be the same again. In those minutes inside the polling booths each one rewrote the history of Zimbabwe," he said.