The New Nation - Internet Edition

The costs of Iraq War

FORMER chief UN weapons inspector, Hans Blix, the other day slammed the

Iraq war as a 'tragedy - for Iraq, for the US, for the UN, for truth and human dignity' and blamed it on leaders ignoring the facts. Writing in The Guardian of London on the five-year anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq, Blix, who clashed with Washington in the run-up to the war, said that responsibility for the war 'must lie with those who ignored the facts five years ago.' As head of UN monitoring and inspection commission, Blix accused the US and Britain of exaggerating the threat from Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein's alleged 'weapons of mass destruction - traces of which have never been found.

On the other hand, Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz and co-author Linda J Bilmes, have stated in a new book that in 2008 - its sixth year, the Iraq war will cost approximately $12 billion a month, a triple the 'burn' rate of its earliest years. Interest on money borrowed to pay those costs could alone add $ 816 billion to that bottom line, according to the book 'The Three Trillion Dollar War' written by Stiglitz of Columbia University and Bilmes of Harvard University. The two wars will have cost the US budget $ 845 billion in 2007.

Although American military and Iraqi civilian casualties have declined in recent months, the rate of spending has shot up. A fully funded 2008 war budget will be 155 per cent higher than 2004's as reported while new analyses show - 'the flow of blood may be ebbing, but the flood of money into the Iraq war is steadily rising.' Almost $ 17 billion is appropriated this year for advanced armoured vehicles to protect troops against roadside bombs.

Businesses for tax holiday

ACCORDING to a study, government at present provides the tax holiday concession to a myriad of emerging industries and services. Under the scheme, the government allows duty free imports of raw materials and equipment and income tax waiver for five years from operation to about 1,000 units under 18 industrial sub-sectors. The industries in these sectors have benefited in varying degrees from receiving this facility. If they were asked to pay taxes right from the outset, many of them would probably turn uncompetitive and wither away prematurely.

But the tax holiday helped them to remain in operation and to actually prosper in many cases. Thus, these enterprises are not only creating more employment in the economy and opportunities for earning for unemployed people, a broader base for taxation is also being created after the expiry of the tax holiday period. But a decision was taken by the National Board of Revenue (NBR) to wind up the tax holiday facility in the 2004-5 fiscal year. Later on the decision was revised after extending its duration for another three years. Thus, the benefit is to be withdrawn by the end of this fiscal year.

But many operators of industries under the 18 specified sub-sectors are saying that it is not time, yet, to withdraw tax holiday. They are not for indefinitely continuing with tax holiday but for its extension for some more time. The chambers and trade bodies have urged the government to retain tax holiday in the selected sectors for some time to sustain the growth of industrialisation. This demand of the business bodies sounds reasonable and merits consideration while preparing the national budget for the next fiscal year.

Farakka affects Bangladesh ecology adversely

M.T.Hussain

Thanks to the BBC Radio Bengali Service for the program they had at Kustia in Bangladesh on the 22nd March (08). Important elements of the issue India's Farakka Barrage and its effect on the environment of Bangladesh were fairly discussed. Unfortunately, although I followed the program in my radio and in a few Dhaka dailies, I missed as I expected, anything of the huge losses Bangladesh incurred in the last three decades in terms of monetary specific figures.

I had occasion over a decade ago to do a small work on the ill effects of India's Farakka Barrage built in early 1970s across the river Ganga, 11 miles up from the common border, having had considerable documentation from authentic sources from home and abroad. The sources provided facts and figures about losses Bangladesh incurred. I don't have the figures updated; but they may, hopefully, serve as bases to enumerate the latest figures of losses Bangladesh incurred on aggregate basis.

The losses due to Farakka Barrage built across the river Ganga beginning operation by India at the upstream since May 1975 of this common international river as is well known covered main areas like agricultural production yearly losses alone at Taka 39,000 million or 39 billion during the period of 1976-1994 or 18 years (See, GOB, Adverse Impact of Farakka, 1995, page 84) or Taka 3.16 billion each year in the affected south western region of Bangladesh covering about one-fourth of the total geographical area of the country. Then was listed the loss due to fall of fish production in the rivers in down stream of the Ganga, other rivers known as Padma, Garai, Madhumati, Arial Khan etc. Another document noted as a token of the quantum of production of Hilsa fish, the renowned and most tasty variety, at 120,000 metric tons a season (See, Hasan Zaman, Menace of Farakka, 1970, pp.41-42), the price of which at Taka 40,000 per ton would amount to Taka 480,0000000 million that fell in one year by one fifth or in Taka value 95 million ( GOB, Statistical Yearbook 1991, pp.233-35). Loss of employment opportunity for catching fish for non-availability of fish in the nearly dried up rivers in lean season here that depended in the main natural flow of the Ganga past the Barrage and also country boat transport workers, both figures that stood nearly at 400,000 man days before the Barrage started to have had reduced sharply that in early 1990s nearly halved and now seriously reduced further. Assuming their earning level of the job losers at an average of Taka 50/ per day in early 1990s, the loss stood at Taka 50,000,000 per day, that is, 180,000,000 or Taka 1.8 billion a year. Dredging cost of increased silt deposits including increased fuel costs, equipments and manpower, according to a government report of 1995 stood at Taka 150 million. Losses of forest resources, particularly in the Sundarbands, according to their estimate in early 1990 stood at Taka 9,853 million.

Flood damage costs almost in recurring feature year after year was not available but such amount would stand nearly at Taka one billion a year. Adverse cost impact for salinity intrusion inside sweet water area and arsenic spread were not available to me.

Professor Ain Un Nishat had some useful work on the adverse effects of the Farakka on Bangladesh environment, but I found nothing in terms of concrete money figure in his works I came across (See, Ain Un Nishat, Green House Effectt, 1990). Taking all these known items into account and making intelligent guess on some unknown elements and making them up to date in the end of 2007, one estimate made the total losses in 33 years on account of the Farakka Barrage in Bangladesh at nearly 7,000 billion US dollars.

One might argue about the validity of the figures, but none can blow out that the losses Bangladesh suffered in the last 33 years and certain to suffer in the years ahead on the same account need a few things urgently done. One, India, as is already proved would not sincerely listen to the begging call of Bangladesh, because, the agreements made one after another for sharing of water in the last three decades have hardly been duly honored by India. The argument India advanced was that they had not enough for themselves in the upper stream to spare the agreed quantum in the downstream for Bangladesh. How far the argument is tenable needs to be scrutinized at some other international expertise level. Even if their argument is taken as valid, they have no right to flout Bangladesh's right but should agree to apportion equitably the quantum available. It is as such only the international community could help in the matter.

It may be an option for Bangladesh to sue India in the International Court of Justice not only for the compensations for the losses so far incurred but also for compliance by India of all laws, norms, conventions and usages in all such water sharing measures of international river like the Ganga/ Padma is.

Bangladesh is not only a thickly populated country having all kinds of resource constraint for ensuring minimum decent living for all its 150 million people as at present having 40% living below poverty line and quantum in absolute figure is continuing to increase further.

Should the agricultural lifeline of the economy continues to seriously impinge on the overall environment for India's artificial control of natural flows of water in the 53 common rivers from the upstream during lean season and so engineering unusual floods during monsoons one year after another, the onslaught on the economy of Bangladesh is certain to aggravate further the economic lives of the common people.

That is what the sensible ones would only predict. Such a prediction was made about two decades ago in an editorial of the London daily, The Times, in its 6 September 1988 issue in these concluding words. 'But in the interests of a common humanity, of good neighbourliness, and of future generations, a determined start must be made on a regional plan for the management of the area's waters. The only alternative is death and destructions on a mass scale for Bangladesh'.

Tributes to Principal Ebrahim Khan

Abdus Sattar

The contribution of Principal Ebrahim Khan's legendary and epoch-making works in the fields of education, literature, social. work and philanthropy is unthinkable, unconceivable. He will ever be remembered like a dazzling star in the horizon of mundane illiterate and backward society and miseries of the hapless. He never thought of his own pleasures and comfort but most the time he used to ponder over the fates of the have-nots in the grass-root's level and he refused lucrative government offers to serve in the missions abroad least that debar him from working for the illiterate and poor rural folks especially the Muslims who were all the more subjugated by the colonial rulers and their puppets.

He was also interested in politics though he did not dither the onerous path of honesty and patriotism unlike those of the present-day hullaballo for which the present government have been working with a renaissance zest with reforms packages to correct the malady. He was so honest that he had given up the legal profession least that compels him in committing corrupt means unawares.

But as ill luck would have it the Principal-the-nomenture which has become a part of his name not merely a professional title as he is known all over the globe as the Principal Ebrahim Khan and he has no partner, competitor in this realm. He was real Principal with principles in auguring not only literature but also humanity.

Principal Ebrahim Khan valued the proper use of time in working for the hapless millions, sending money orders to students, teachers, writers alike regularly, never made any distinction between the rich and down trodden who prayed to him from the purest vintage of his heart.

His lone life-long disciple Farhad Khan bears testimony along with the contributions of about 100 books of quality, worth.

His illustrious daughter; Khaleda Habib, former MP, Parliamentary Secretary and Educationist has been auguring the reminiscence strides through heading Principal Ebrahim Khan Foundation that regularly offers seminars discussion sessions, feeding the destitutes and holding of milad mahfils for the salvation the great soul. The Foundation also offers stipends to the poor and meritorious students of school, colleges and madrasahs.

He is known as the great founder Principal of the Govt. Saadat University College, Karatia, Tangail known as the Aligarh of the East. Students from the far-flung areas of Bangladesh got the scope for acquiring knowledge-degree that has ultimately enlightened the region.

He worked with a missionary zest to arrange lodging for most of them. This write up commemorates his 30th death anniversary he breathed his last on 29th March 1978 A.D. He was buried in the field of Bhuapur College which he founded as the result his orchestrated efforts for the rejuvenation of the illiterate millions for the sophisticated livening. He reared the secular and progressive view. He treated all similarly irrespective of colour, creed and race or caste.

No superstition could dither him from his modern concept as all welcomed him, enthralled him and also prayed for him. He laid more importance on the service of humanity than the ritualistic festivals of religion.

This secular and pragmatic view of the late Principal created a lasting influence upon the life and thought of the people of the region, a good number of people are regularly playing their active part in art and literacy work.

No hooliganism and extortion could spread their cruel paws in this enlightened area of the continent.

At the present melancholy state of affairs needing reforms or renaissance the presence of the value-oriented roles, schemes and literary works of the great Principal are badly needed. Myself a Principal by profession establishing three colleges feel proud to recognise me as the merited student of Saadat College, founded by him and linking my name with the great soul, while most of the self sacrificing followers are on the verge of passing away. In this present juncture, recultivation and adoption of the philosophy propounded by the great Principal Ebrahim Khan have no alternative and the light at the end of the tunnel as shown by towering personality is the need of the hour.

We should uphold the glorious and unparalleled dedicated sacrifices he made by his untiring and adventurous deeds in the multifarious fields of education art and culture, social, political and religious reforms throughout his life span. There is hardly any corner of social arena which has not been illuminated by his loving, magical and dutiful touch. It is for this he has been shinning as the dazzling star in the dark sky. The journey for the alleviation of illiteracy, poverty was perilous in the then educationally backward region of the country.

The great Principal Ebrahim Khan was adorned with the coveted Ekushey Padak and the Bangla Acadamy Prize for his matchless contributions in education and social work. But this is a travesty of history that he was not inducted in the cabinet though he deserved.

The colonial legacy misconstrued his selfless services and dedication: but the illumination set forth by his work and values will continue to pray heavily for the salvation of his soul and happiness in the vast world herein after.

Democracy at a cross-roads

Justin Wintle

Many forms of government have been tried and will be tried in this world of sin and woe', Winston Churchill told the British House of Commons in November 1947, famously adding: 'No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others that have been tried from time to time.' He declined, however, to explain what the shortcomings of democracy might be. With the help of the United States he had seen off the threat of German fascism, and had already identified the threats implicit in Soviet totalitarianism. For him, democracy just was the proper way of life, worthy of championing, whatever the cost in 'blood, toil, tears and sweat'.

Sixty years on we have good reason to feel less confident about Churchill's 'least-worst' reasoning. Global warming and an endemic despoliation of natural environments are attributable to a rampant worldwide consumerism fed by a troika of capital, techno-industrialisation and, especially, democracy. Where they have a choice, the majority will always tend to vote for the party that promises to raise their immediate, material living standards. And even where a democratic choice does not exist, the effect may be the same, as governments succour their subjects by enabling them to acquire a lifestyle that apes the Western model.

The most obvious example of the latter is post-Mao China. While the Chinese politburo abides by the premise that only a highly centralised, strong-arm government can deliver the stability and order ('harmony') needed to bind a vast land and people together in a condition of peace, it has become a commonplace that the purposive denizens of China's teeming cities want nothing more than to enjoy the material prosperity most obviously associated with the United States.

China, it may be said, enjoys (or suffers) the fruits of democracy without the distractions of an actual democracy. So long as the population at large is able to vigorously nibble away at the carrot of prosperity, government will not run into serious difficulties in maintaining, if not the strong support, at the least the tacit compliance of the people it controls. Destabilisation, when it does come, will be (in the first instance) a consequence of an economic downturn, not ideological resistance. Conversely, the one part of the planet where opposition to destructive consumerism promoted by the West is effective is in those Islamic territories where a rock-hard religious ideology pertains. Ironically, the Islamicist programme - fiercely antithetical to capitalism, industrialism and democracy alike - looks, at this point in time, a better bet for the healthy continuance of Planet Earth than its rivals. But culturally it is non-saleable to the rest of humanity, and the challenge for Islam lies not in expanding its remit but in holding on to what it already has. Islam therefore is unlikely to play a major role in containing and reversing the consumerist contagion. Rather, the rest of humanity must look to itself.

The solution, if solution there is, must be eclectic. Yet at every turn obstacles arise. Overwhelmingly it is obvious that population management is de rigueur - more people simply means more consumption. Yet (and hats off to it) the People's Republic alone has attempted to legislate against population growth. Western governments, rather than promote meaningful shrinkage, still equate the holy grail of economic growth with a positive birth rate and expansionist demographics. Limiting the size of families by decree is perceived as an assault on individual liberty. Again, intra-national competition emasculates the green ideal. So long as an effectively binding global agreement to contain pollution remains elusive, individual states owe it to their majoritative constituencies to pursue bullish economic policies. The 'anti-capitalist' movement - no longer rooted in Marxist dogma - is none the less routinely castigated and marginalised. Those most ardently concerned with the well-being of global ecology are demonised as wreckers.

As China demonstrates, capital-driven techno-industrialised economic liftoff can be achieved without democratisation. Yet conceivably 'democracy' still holds one key. It is not a system, much less an idea, that is about to vanish, however ineptly democracy is actually practised in its signed-up states. Its promise of a participatory, inclusive politics is simply too strong a desideratum to be tossed aside. But the moment has come to reconsider its design.

Democracy has come a long journey since its (supposed) initial adumbration in ancient, slave-owning Athens. In medieval Europe it was unwittingly revived in a variety of parliaments composed of stakeholder elite. Today, democracy exhibits a variety of electoral systems based on universal adult suffrage, militating against the simple Athenian rule by a majority of 'free' males (which can also mean rule of the mob). Proportional representation has become widely favoured over the older 'first-past-the-post' system. Some newer European constitutions, too, guarantee the rights and interests of minorities.

More generally, such rights as freedom of expression and freedom of movement have become embedded in democratic ideology. Democracy now means not just the right to vote, but also the right to an education, to healthcare, to a pension - historically a dazzling programme of socialistic benefits that seem most effectively paid for by enabling a full-blooded wealth-producing but also taxable capitalist enterprise to run side-by-side a welfare state.

Which is all well and good. But the fly in the ointment is that voters are seldom satisfied with educational, healthcare and pension provision. They want a whole lot more. They want their gas-guzzling motorcars, their jetplane holidays in faraway places, and their proliferating household electronic gadgets. They want as big a carbon footprint as they can get for themselves, and will not vote for a party that shapes to deny them these things. At any rate, that is how it is in the West - which is why the West is such an excruciating example to the rest of the world. So what is to be done?

Confucius may have the answer. While Western democracy is an evolving programme, in one respect it remains inflexible. The concept of one-citizen one-vote has ossified into an iron shibboleth.

That all adult citizens should have the vote makes sense enough, if only on the ground that it is better to include as many as possible within the political process. But why insist that every voter in the land carry exactly the same political weight? Is it really to society's advantage that an eighteen-year-old drug addict has no less political 'authority' than say a hard-working professor three times his age? Which of the two is better equipped to vote for sensible policies?

Confucius urged respect for the elderly, for parents, for teachers, and for those who observe the 'rites' that bind society together. We need an electoral system that does the same, as a means of promoting electoral responsibility.

What I am suggesting is that every adult should continue to have a vote, but that adults who have proven their commitment to the public good should be rewarded with additional votes. Thus an extra vote might be given every adult who attains the age of fifty. Additional votes might also be accorded parents, where parents remain together and preserve the family. Such a 'Confucian' electorate could be enhanced in other ways. Individuals could acquire extra ballot papers by virtue of being a teacher, a doctor, a civil servant, a policeman, a magistrate, a member of the armed forces: for it makes moral as well as practical sense that those who put most into society, or show themselves capable of self-sacrifice, should have a greater say in determining how society is run.

Conversely, those achieving excessive wealth could be stripped of any additional votes accrued: they have already gained enough from society. Ditto convicted criminals. Ditto too politicians, at least until such time as they cease being politicians. They have power enough.

Such a reconfiguration of the franchise would of course privilege 'conservative' voting patterns, but that is the very point. The need to 'conserve' should now take precedence over the will to exploit. Older citizens, and citizens who have performed well in the public sector, would be more likely to vote for governments mindful of the true common good, not just immediate advantage. And this in turn would encourage a new political agenda, to be placed before socially redesigned electorates.

A Confucian franchise would also institute accumulative citizenship. Having one vote at (say) eighteen puts you on the first, lowest rung of political responsibility, but there would still be much to play for thereafter. This would reinvigorate democracy, where democracy has fallen into cynical disrepute, encouraging parties and governments to take their long-term responsibilities seriously. A Confucian democracy of the kind suggested would empower collective wisdom - something too long absent from democratic politics, however outmoded the term. It is improbable, though, that such a radical reform of the franchise could, in the first instance, be introduced into any Western state. Existing franchises would vote against it. It would be perceived as 'reactionary' and 'elitist', for all that self-evidently what is proposed is a non-exclusive electoral gradation open to all.

But how about the People's Republic itself? In one fell swoop the emergent superpower could leapfrog its Western counterpart in the fairness stakes, to produce an exemplary electoral system marvellously attuned to the exigencies of the times. Incorporating traditional, tested Chinese values, a 'Confucian' democracy would also safeguard the Chinese state against future instability.

All this may seem a pie in the sky, a fun balloon released into the New Year ether and nothing more, but I make no apology. The sky and the ether are already critically damaged, the same as Mother Earth. The need to think 'outside the box' about the structural relations between governments and the governed within a global context has become paramount. If we fail in this, then (pace Churchill) it may not matter two cents what type of government - least-worst or any otherwise - prevails.