The New Nation - Internet Edition

Asif Haroon Raja

The demise of king's party and particularly its leading lights came as a shocker to its mentor President Musharraf and a pleasant surprise to the winning political parties. PPP's victory was never in doubt because of rejuvenation of the party as a result of arrival of Benazir on 18 October, timely selection and submission of election papers of its candidates and later on the huge sympathy vote it received. PML N on the other hand remained handicapped because of second banishment of its leader on 10 September which not only depressed the party workers but also put a stopper on expected desertions from Q League to the mother party. The party suffered because of the late arrival of Sharif brothers' in November amidst restrictions imposed on public meetings in the wake of emergency and security concerns and hostility of the Establishment and PCO judges. Besides acute shortage of time for campaigning, invalidation of Nawaz and Shahbaz to participate in elections became a serious drawback. The entire local government in Punjab was in the grip of Q League and the interim government was also an extension of former rulers. Under the grim circumstances to win 67 National Assembly seats and 101 Punjab seats was creditable. Nawaz's unequivocal stance on the issue of judges as against non-committal stance of Benazir and then by Zardari, and his vocal anti-Musharraf tirade turned the tide in Punjab in favour of PML-N.

Q League's confidence to win the race emanated from its plan of pre-poll, during poll and post-poll rigging. The president, caretakers, the election commission and the judiciary were to look the other way to all the irregularities committed. Arrival of Nawaz and his alignment with PPP upset its calculations to emerge as the single largest party. It grudgingly accepted the changed situation but still hoped to win sizeable chunk of seats at the centre, Baluchistan and Frontier, with dominance in Punjab and to emerge as second largest party after PPP by manipulating results on the D-day.

While it succeeded in carrying out pre-poll rigging and put the party at a distinct advantageous position as opposed to other contestants, rigging on the polling day had to be abandoned due to massive internal and external pressure and presence of hundreds of foreign observers. The regime had already come under extreme pressure on account of Benazir's murder inquest and chest thumping by opposition parties that elections will be rigged. They had threatened to boycott election results and to launch violent agitations. More so, the new army chief's decision to keep the army out of politics and civil affairs nailed the manipulators. These unforeseen developments plunged the fortunes of Q League and deprived it from emerging even as a runner up. The post-poll rigging has now been set in motion in connivance with USA to form governments friendly to US policies and having liberal outlook.

Although PPP has emerged as the single largest party winning 88 national assembly seats out of 342, 78 seats in Punjab, 17 in Frontier, 65 in Sindh and 7 in Baluchistan , yet it is not in a position to form governments at its own either in the centre or in Sindh. PML-N could make its presence felt at the centre and Punjab only and could not gain a single seat in Sindh and Baluchistan . Although Q League has miserably lost the race, however, it has managed to win sizeable seats in national assembly as well as in all the four provincial assemblies. ANP has improved its performance considerably by acquiring highest tally of seats in Frontier, ten in national assembly, two in Sindh and one in Baluchistan . MQM has improved its strength at the centre and in Sindh by resorting to organised rigging and coercive tactics in Karachi . It could not win a single seat outside urban Sindh since the masses had rejected its fascist policies and has thus continued to remain a regional party.

PPP has several choices available to form governments at the centre and in provinces. At the centre it had the choice of either co-opting PML-N and ANP or PML Q and ANP to attain the magic figure. It has been decided to team up with PML-N and ANP. In Frontier it can join up with ANP, BNP and independents. In Sindh, it can form a government with MQM alone or with other parties.

Although it will be in the interest of Sindh if the PPP-MQM marry up, but going by the rules laid down in Charter of Democracy, all the parties had pledged not to get aligned with MQM because of its fascism. In Baluchistan PPP can team up with PML Q or with independents and other smaller parties. The independents will be in hot demand while the winners in Q League would be itching to move over to greener pastures. PML-N fortunes can upturn in case of flurry of desertions from the winners in Q League to whom Nawaz has already thrown bait. Patriots could also return to mother party. Since all of them are turn coats, it would not come as a surprise if they decide to change their loyalties. The process of making and breaking and under hand deals has already commenced.

Both PPP and PML N are so far in no mood to get friendly with Musharraf and have given open hints that he should resign. Even if the PPP-PML-N coalition agree to work with him, Article 58 (2)(b) would remain a sticking point. Even they would like to snatch away appointment of services chiefs, governors and judges from the president, and convert NSC into NDC under the PM. The big question is whether Musharraf who has basked in glory for over eight years would accept getting converted into a ceremonial figurehead and tolerate the overbearing attitude of the Executive for the next five years.

Although USA as well as President Musharraf have lost their role of kingmaker to form another dummy legislature, USA will continue to pressurise Zardari and Nawaz to reject policy of confrontation and instead co-exist with President Musharraf. The latter and Q League would keep hoping for a conflict between PPP and PML-N over issues or over portfolios resulting in its early collapse.

(The writer is a defence and political analyst.)