The New Nation - Internet Edition

Can crops be climate-proofed?

T.V. Padma

Climate change threatens food crops across the world. Now scientists are re-focusing their efforts on crop resilience, rather than yields.

Among the most worrying aspects of climate change is its effects on the world's food supply. The worst-case scenario is stark: Africa's Sahel region will produce fewer cereals, rice cultivation in Asia will be under threat, there will be fewer vegetables - with potatoes and beans potentially wiped out - and livestock and fisheries will be severely stressed.

Climate change is making crop scientists review their research agenda. Until now, their main focus was on improving yields. But with successive International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports warning that increased droughts and floods will shift crop systems, 'climate-proofing' of crops has become crucial. The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) institutes are now investigating how to make crops' more resilient to environment stresses.

But efforts are hampered because few climate models predict changes for individual regions, making it difficult to predict how climate change will affect growth and yields of specific crops in each region.

"A partnership between climatologists and crop scientists will be valuable in developing regional analogues," says Martin Parry, IPCC co-chair and a scientist at the UK-based Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

And the need is urgent. At a meeting of CGIAR institutes in Hyderabad, India, in November 2007, Parry said that the estimated window for implementing mitigation and adaptation programmes has shrunk from 30-40 years to 15.

He advised CGIAR scientists to put climate change at the heart of research programmes.

Others agree. As Kwesi Atta-Krah, deputy director-general of the Italy-based research organisation Bioversity International says, "Plant breeders now need to focus on the future as well as the present, and use the vast genetic resources in gene banks and in the wild that hold potential for adaptation of major crops to a changing climate."

Rice crops are most vulnerable to global warming. Studies worldwide show that rising carbon dioxide levels may initially increase growth, but the benefit is temporary. Rising temperatures make rice spikelets - the slender branches containing rice flowers - sterile, and grain yields will fall.

Asia and sub-Saharan Africa will be amongst the most severely affected by climate change. About 90 per cent of the world's rice is grown and consumed in Asia (where 70 per cent of the world's poor live), and sub-Saharan Africa is the world's fastest growing rice consumer. The most vulnerable agricultural systems are the rain-fed uplands and lowlands that form almost 80 per cent of total rice land in Africa.

Reiner Wassman, coordinator of the Rice and Climate Change Consortium at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) in the Philippines, says IRRI strategies should include breeding rice that can survive climate change. He wants to see plants that can tolerate higher temperatures and/or flooding, that flower in the mornings before temperatures rise, and that transpire (lose water through evaporation from leaves) more efficiently to cool the air around them.

His hopes are buoyed by IRRI's latest research into the rice line 'sub1', which survived submersion for 17 days (see Scientists create flood-resistant rice). The line could provide genes for flood tolerance.

In Africa, the Africa Rice Centre (WARDA) is focusing on its NERICA (New Rice for Africa) varieties. These combine traits of Africa's Oryza glaberrima - such as drought and local disease tolerance - with the high yields of Asia's Oryza sativa.

Drought is also a big concern for the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT) in El Batan, Mexico. The IPCC's predictions of increasing droughts spell disaster for half of the developing world's wheat growing areas.

The problem is particularly acute in central and west Africa, where the poor depend on wheat but get an annual rainfall of less than 350 mm, says CIMMYT scientist Rodomiro Ortiz.

CIMMYT has launched a hunt for drought tolerance in wild wheats and 'landraces' - traditional crops that have adapted to local conditions over centuries. The centre is also teaming up with the Japan International Research Centre for Agricultural Sciences to map drought-tolerant genes in wheat and maize.

CIMMYT is using its findings in both traditional breeding and genetic engineering programmes. For example, researchers are working on genetically engineered wheat containing the DREB gene of Arabidopsis thaliana - a relative of mustard plants - that may confer tolerance to drought, saline soils and low temperatures. CIMMYT is testing yields of genetically engineered plants with the DREB gene under varying water stress.

However, Ortiz cautions that the plant is still experimental. Most published studies simulated drought conditions in greenhouses more rapidly than would occur naturally. Ortiz wants more experiments under natural water stress conditions.

Scientists look for useful genes in plants grown only locally, and CIMMYT already has maize breeding programmes that work with local communities. But researchers fear many useful wild species could disappear.

"Climate change is leading to significant losses of genetic resources in several regions of the world," says Atta-Krah. He says diversity among crop species must be effectively conserved, managed, and used to improve crops and adapt to climate change. One striking example of shrinking diversity is Latin America's beans. Peter Jones, a scientist at the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) in Columbia, says that of the 17 wild species of the Arachis genus - the pea family that includes the peanut - 12 will be extinct by 2055 due to climate change.

We must systematically map important bean species and ensure important collections have more than five live specimens, adds Jones.

The world's livestock are also in the danger zone. A 2006 assessment of global animal genetic resources by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimated that 70 per cent of the world's unique livestock are in developing countries. Many breeds already risk extinction. On average, one livestock breed is lost every month, mainly due to globalisation of livestock markets.

Climate change will strike further blows. According to the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Kenya, climate change will affect livestock by changing the yield and nutritional quality of their fodder, increasing disease and disease-spreading pests, reducing water availability, and making it difficult to survive in extreme environments.

"Climate change will have impacts at the ecosystem level that are poorly understood," says ILRI's deputy director-general for research, John McDermott. Effects will vary between the rain-fed highlands in the Great Lakes region of eastern Africa, the coastal regions of south, east and west Africa, and the forests of central Africa. The exact consequences for each ecosystem need to be analysed in detail.

The common theme in all these changes is water availability. Already, one-third of the world's people live in river basins where they face water scarcity. But climate change will have other effects on agricultural irrigation.

The timing and size of river flows will change, affecting river water schemes, says Colin Chartres, director-general of the Sri-Lanka-based International Water Management Institute. He adds that receding glaciers mean less water will be available in spring, which could affect some 17 per cent of the world's population, including those irrigating the Indus basin. Changes in groundwater recharge could also affect irrigation in China, India, Mexico and the United States.

Chartes says scientists need to go beyond coarse global models, and develop specific river-basin and farm-scale models of how climate change will affect river water availability and lake levels. He also calls for more precise models of how climate change may affect fish productivity in oceans, seas and inland fisheries.

As the problems become apparent, CGIAR centres are working on better understanding their implications.

The India-based International Centre for Research in Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) research strategy for 2007-2012 targets climate change issues in the short- and medium-to-longer term.

ICRISAT director-general, William Dar, says ICRISAT is working to make millets, sorghum, pigeon pea and groundnut better adapted to major climate stresses. The organisation has already developed varieties tolerant to heat, high soil temperatures, low and variable rainfall, and diseases.

What is needed now, says Dar, is a better knowledge of the physiology behind stress tolerance, wider gene pools, and more effective screening methods for useful genes.

CIAT is developing computer software to analyse future climate scenarios. Examples include 'MarkSim' to simulate daily weather for up to 100 years anywhere in the tropics, and 'Homologue' to compare climate and soil throughout the tropics.

The International Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) has studied how areas in and around Egypt, Morocco and Sudan are coping with water scarcity in rainfed and irrigated grasslands, as well as traditional watershed management systems.

But the task ahead is tough. As Jones points out, historically the average time between scientists beginning to hunt for useful traits and a new stable variety growing in farmers' fields has been 46 years. "So that is how far ahead we should be looking at the start of every project," he says.

And as one participant at the Hyderabad conference commented, "You may put all those traits for tolerance to drought, salt and pests in a plant - and then find it has no yield!"

(Source: SciDev.Net)

Bangladesh’s majestic dolphins at risk

Alastair Lawson

Seeing the river dolphins of Bangladesh is not something that is easily forgotten. They rise arc-like and majestic out of the water only inches from boats that ply the rivers of the country's south. In a country where the wildlife population has been denuded because of over-crowding and pollution, dolphins provide visitors with a beautiful and memorable surprise. But conservationists say they are increasingly concerned over the future of the country's river dolphin population, some of which they warn may even be at risk of extinction. They say that it is rapidly declining because of over-fishing, a shortage of prey, pollution and declining freshwater supplies. 'Isolated' Experts are particularly concerned over the fate of two species - the Ganges river dolphin and the Irrawaddy dolphin whose numbers they say have significantly reduced over the last decade. "This is probably because of intense human activities - such as farming and fishing - that takes place

in their river and near shore water habit," said dolphin expert Elisabeth Fahrni Mansur. Over-fishing is being blamed for the dolphins'' decline

"But they are also at risk because of the clumped nature of their overall distribution, which results in a patchwork of relatively small groups demographically isolated from each other." While Bangladesh currently supports relatively large populations of Ganges river dolphins and Irrawaddy dolphins, conservationists argue that it's crucial to address the threats they face now, while the potential for long-term survival of both species is still relatively high in comparison to other areas in Asia. While other species such as Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins and Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins are not currently threatened, their future can by no means be taken for granted. But it's the Ganges river dolphin and the Irrawaddy dolphin which give the most cause for concern. "The most dire threat to them comes in the form of accidental deaths caused fishing nets," said Ms Mansur. "Fishermen don't target the animals, but when they often become entangled in nets they easily drown because they are breathing mammals. "A more long term threat comes from declining freshwater supplies - primarily due to water extraction upstream in India - and sea-level rises which have led to profound changes to the ecology of their habitat." The bulk of the country's freshwater dolphin population live in the south-west of the country, especially in the rivers and waterways of the Sunderbans mangrove forest. Rising salinity is killing the animals

Experts point out that these rivers are particularly affected by toxic and industrial waste which is dumped in the water further upstream. "Rising salinity through both climate change and declining freshwater supplies is also a real and a long-term challenge to the ecology of the Sunderbans," said Ms Mansur. Dolphins in the forest tend to partition themselves according to the level of salinity - Ganges river dolphins for example are found in mangrove channels with high freshwater inputs, while Irrawaddy dolphins live in more salty mangrove channels further downstream. Ominous development Experts say that the level of salinity in these areas is crucial to the survival of the animals and to the livelihoods of over 30,000 fishermen in the Sunderbans. Already at least 11 species of fresh water fish are extinct. The animals can surprise with their arc-like appearances

In what many environmentalists see as an ominous development, the finless porpoise - primarily a coastal species - has recently been discovered in the Sunderbans which provides another indication of rising salinity. Steps are now being taken to combat the problem. The Bangladesh Cetacean Diversity Project (BCDP) and the New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) are proposing a protected area for dolphins, which would consist of three priority sites in the Sunderbans. In addition to monitoring salinity levels, accidental killings of dolphins by fishermen would also be surveyed. "The idea is that fishermen will be provided with relatively inexpensive global positioning systems and depth sounders, in addition to being trained how to use them so that they can navigate safely to shore during storms," said Ms Mansur. "In return the fishermen would safely release live animals found entangled in their nets, and collect samples and basic information on animals

found already dead. "But the battle to save these animals is not going to be easy. Salinity and over-fishing are in many respects facts beyond our control. We are the local end of a global battle."

(Source: BBC News, in the Sunderbans of Bangladesh)

Would biofuels boom compromise food security

Sun Xiaohua

China will not suffer food scarcity or fluctuations in the price of agricultural products, despite its plans to produce biofuels from crops, according to a Chinese expert in energy research.

"The Chinese government gives top priority to food security," said Zhou Fengqi, former director-general of the Energy Research Institute under the National Development and Reform Committee, China's top economic policy-making agency.

Zhou was responding to a report released this week (4 July) by the Organisation for Economic Development (OECD) and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). The report, 'Agricultural Outlook 2007-2016', claims that increasing demand for biofuels is causing fundamental changes to agricultural markets that could drive up world prices for many farm products.

This is a particular concern for developing countries that are net food importers, as well as for developing world farmers who need to purchase feedstock.

Zhou points out that, compared with other biofuel producers such as the United States, China's production of biofuel and its demand for raw materials is small.

Last year, China consumed 2.7 million tons of corn, or two per cent of its total yield, to produce 850,000 tons of ethanol fuel, whereas the United States used 55 million tons of corn for ethanol production.

But the OECD-FAO report estimates that Chinese ethanol output will rise to 3.8 billion litres annually in 2016, a two billion litre increase over present levels.

This estimate falls well short of China's plans to increase its ethanol production to two million tons in 2010 and ten million tons, equivalent to 13 billion litres, in 2020.

But the country has every intention of safeguarding its food supply. Last month, China's State Council said that non-staple crops in China, such as sorghum, batata and cassava, will be used to make ethanol, instead of corn, which is a staple crop.

The council also announced that arable land would not be used to grow crops to produce ethanol, and that there would be no large-scale consumption of grain or damage to the environment.

The OECD-FAO report points out that although temporary factors such as drought in wheat-growing regions and low stocks might explain recent increases in farm commodity prices, there are also structural changes underway in global agricultural markets that could keep prices high for many agricultural products over the coming decade.

The report's authors estimate that by 2016, the United States will double the amount of ethanol it produces from maize, and Brazil will increase its production from 21 to 44 billion litres.

Meanwhile, Mexican president Felipe Calderón has vetoed a bioenergy law to establish biofuel production in the country, saying that it focuses too much on maize and sugarcane production.

The veto was exercised this month (1 September), after deputies in the ruling Revolutionary Institutional Party approved the law in April.

According to Calderón, the law focuses too much on producing ethanol biofuel from sugar cane and maize, without considering other new technologies that could allow for seaweed, bacteria, enzyme and cellulose biofuels.

Critics argue that using food crops such as maize for biofuel production could compromise world food security and push up international food prices.

The veto also states that responsibility for biofuel should not lie solely with the Ministry of Agriculture and that the Ministry of Energy should be involved. It recommends that the Ministry of Agriculture should only be responsible for biofuel development and promotion, with the energy ministry responsible for their production, transportation and marketing.

Cruz Lopez Aguilar, a member of parliament and president of the National Peasant Confederation, a political pressure group, warned that if the veto is not withdrawn within 15 days, the two years of legislative work it took to draft the proposal with agricultural organisations and authorities will be wasted.

"Now it turns out that the presidency can change a whole chapter, articles and also the name of the law, because now it is called the Biofuels Production and Marketing Law," he said.

Jordy Herrera, undersecretary of Energy Planning and Technological Development of the Ministry of Energy, said at a press conference that the law initially approved by legislators covered the planned 2.6 million litres of ethanol to be added daily to fuels produced by Mexico Oil, the state-owned oil company.

(Source: SciDev.Net)

Snow leopards earn their keep in tourist dollars

Iris Philips

Tsring Angmo a student from Rumbak village in Ladakh attended a workshop conducted by the Snow Leopard Conservancy (SLC) in India out of sheer curiosity. "I came away feeling responsible for the safety of the endangered animal,'' she said.

Angmo received training to track the endangered big cat using 'cyber tracker' devices and also to work as a nature guide in Ladakh, a cold, dry, high-altitude region of northern Jammu and Kashmir state.

Cyber Tracker software, when fed into ordinary smart phones and hand-helds, transforms them into devices that enable local communities to get better involved in local biodiversity issues. The synergy between indigenous knowledge and modern information and communication (IC) technology has been found to vastly improve environmental monitoring.

''The signs recorded by the trackers are fed into computers to make a map of the spots where sightings are common,'' explained Rigzin Tundup, an engineer from Ang village who also became a champion of the snow leopard survival after attending the SLC workshop.

A group of about 20 Ladakhi youths trained by SLC use trackers to regularly monitor the now leopard population. During summers, they earn money working as nature guides and escort trekkers to areas where snow leopard sightings are possible.

Shy by nature snow leopards are rarely spotted even by the Ladakhi herders who share their mountain habitat. But this only whets the appetite of tourists and wildlife enthusiasts who may stay on in the area for days till a sighting is made.

SLC began its conservation programme in and around the 3,350 sq km Hemis National Park in 2000. That was after a survey conducted in Ladakh in 1998 showed that the people of the Markha valley and surrounding hamlets lost 12 percent of their livestock to predators. Each family of herders lost on the average six animals for a total economic loss in the park of some 23,500 dollars.

Distributed across Central Asia, there are only around 4,500 to 7,500 snow leopards left in the wild. The animal's habitat is connected to the availability of its main prey species -- bharal or the Himalayan blue sheep, found in the Himalayas and Tibet, and ibex found in the Karakorum , Mongolian and Russian mountain ranges.

Threats to the dwindling species include depletion of prey base, poaching, degradation of mountain environment and escalating man-animal conflict. Ladakh is one of the last snow leopard havens left on the planet.

Due to depletion of its natural prey base, the snow leopards had begun preying on livestock raised by local herders. That turned the elusive animal into a despised predator and revenge killings by herders began to threaten its existence.

It does not help the snow leopard that its luxuriant pelt, coloured a soft grey with solid brown or black spots, is highly prized. Snow leopard bones and other body parts are also in demand for use in traditional Asian medicine. Although trade in snow leopard fur and parts is illegal, it is reported continuing.

"We realised that there was a critical need for intervention, but conservation is impossible without community stewardship," says Rinchen Wangchuk, director, SLC, India. So SLC launched a participatory conservation and monitoring programme.

With UNESCO's support, SLC started an awareness campaign among members of the local community about the social and economic benefits of wildlife protection. Programmes to train local youth to work as nature guides were also started with support from the Wildlife Department, Jammu & Kashmir.

Most of the local people were solely dependant on agriculture and herding for their income. In order to provide them an additional source of income and raise living standards, SLC offered to provide help with the Himalayan homestay projects in villages. These projects host tourists, many of them foreign nationals, in Ladakhi homes and give them a chance to enjoy traditional hospitality. The majority of Ladakhis are Buddhists, and their cultural practices are very similar to those of Buddhist Tibetans.

SLC agreed to give technical and financial help to tourism activities in villages if no snow leopard or cubs were killed by residents of the villages.

Ten percent of profits from homestay projects would go into a village conservation fund. Seventy families in the sparsely populated Ladakh and Zanskar and 30 families in Spiti are part of the project now. Each family earned an average of Rs 4,000 (98 US dollars) in the last tourist season.

"I can send my children to a better school thanks to the additional income," says Padma Dolma of Rumbak. "We gladly contribute to the village conservation fund since we have realised that the snow leopard is an ornament of our mountains."

The move to make animal pens predator-proof was another turning point in the thaw in relations between the big cat and the local community. "We used to stay awake all night in the biting cold to guard our animal pens," says Tashi Largyal from Sku-Kaya village.

SLC distributed material to local herders to improve livestock enclosures and make them predator proof. "Now we can lock up our sheep and goats in the pens and go home. Snow leopards don't enter the pens, and have gone back to hunting bharal," says a relieved Largyal.

Largyal's village recently erected a board to attract nature lovers and ecotourists to Ladakh. It reads: welcome to the snow leopard capital of the world!

"SLC is doing commendable work to deal with conservation versus livelihood issues," says C.M. Seth, director, State Forest Research Institute, Jammu & Kashmir. "Their efforts are a perfect example of how attitudinal changes can be achieved by motivating local communities to take over the stewardship of conservation."

(This story is part of a series of features on sustainable development by IPS-Inter Press Service and IFEJ-International Federation of Environmental Journalists.)