The New Nation - Internet Edition

Pakistan's turbulent security situation

Asif Haroon Raja

Pakistan's tribal belt in the northwest and interior Baluchistan in the south are turbulent for the last many years where the security forces and the miscreants are spilling blood of each other. Whereas Baluchistan has suffered from bouts of turmoil in the past; it is for the first time that FATA is up in flames. The army entered into South Waziristan Agency in 2002 for the first time to deal with terrorists of foreign origins on the intelligence provided by FBI. It used selective but at times excessive force to combat the militants and managed to nab as well as flush out militants and their harbourers by early 2005. However, once it expanded its operations into North Waziristan , it found the going exceptionally tough and is still battling with the militants. The flames of terrorism rather than getting smothered spread to Bajaur, Kurram, Aurakzai, Mohmand and parts of Khyber Agencies as well. Besides human and material losses, large-scale displacement of people also took place causing immense hardships to the people.

The army had to be employed in Baluchistan when Nawab Bugti took up a defiant stance and decided to adopt a confrontationist approach. The effects of insurgency in Dera Bugti, Sui, Kahan and Kohlu contaminated other parts of Baluchistan including Quetta . Local nationalist political parties ganged up to lend support to the dissident Sardars of Bugti, Marri and Mengal tribes. Cases of sabotage and subversion and duels between the forces and miscreants became a daily routine. 'Baluchistan Liberation Alliance' (BLA) was created in 1980s as a pro-Moscow underground organisation. In 2006, it committed 403 terror acts in Baluchistan killing 277 civilians. It was banned in April 2006 but it continued to indulge in anti-state activities. During the first half of 2007, 58 bomb blasts, 82 rocket attacks, 31 attacks on gas pipelines, 14 on railway tracks, 11 on electric transmissions were carried out. Despite the death of Nawab Bugti who was the chief source of inspiration behind the insurgency, followed by death of his successor Balach Marri heading BLA having 80 murder cases on him, internment of Sardar Akhtar Mengal, demolition of 50 out of 53 Farari camps run by BLA, and supply routes from Afghanistan and India brought under surveillance, sabotage activities are still continuing, although on a much limited scale.

Likewise, despite tough measures, the spill over effects of South and North Waziristan tribal agencies affected other tribal agencies and even the nearby settled areas of NWFP. The tribesmen of FATA and Baluchistan are laced with deadly weapons of all sorts and are adept in the use of landmines and remote-control IEDs. Not only they have huge stocks of munitions stored in safe places, they are being regularly supplied with fresh stocks from external sources. The militants are also resorting to suicide bombing against military convoys and kidnapping security personnel. In certain cases the kidnapped persons were ruthlessly beheaded. The ongoing fire fight between the security forces and miscreants has heightened antagonism. As a result, the hardcore fighting element of the tribal areas that could act as a reserve force to the army in case of emergency is no more available.

At the moment, 120,000 paramilitary forces and army troops are entangled in the north-western tribal belt with little hope of extrication in the near future. About 15000 troops are committed in Swat and Shangla since October last to fight the Fazlullah led militants. Another Corps size force down south is providing back up support to the paramilitary forces in Baluchistan . All these are unproductive energy sapping exercises and at the cost of operational preparedness. In 1971, our forces in former East Pakistan kept chasing the Bengali rebels for nine months and when India in league with Soviet Union mounted a full-fledged offensive in November they were completely mentally and physically exhausted.

While the Balochis and Pashtuns are harbouring ill feelings against the army and the Punjabis, the people of interior Sindh have their own set of grievances particularly after the tragic killing of Ms Bhutto. The army and rangers are patrolling in major towns of Sindh to keep the volatile situation under control. In case the election results are not to the liking of the PPP, the situation in Sindh could spin out of control. Karachi otherwise is a festering volcano. Punjab too stand divided between two antagonist parties led by Nawaz and Ch brothers. The lawyers as well as Jamaat-i-Islami, Tehrik-i-Insaf and smaller regional parties have boycotted elections on the plea that these would be rigged. The journalists, members of civil society and human rights activists have joined hands with lawyers to press their demands for the restoration of deposed judges and for the rule of law. The president has become an object of aversion for a large segment of society and they want his ouster.

Secular-Islamists divide has sharpened with little scope for reconciliation between the two. Kurram agency is restive because of sectarian clashes where again the army is deployed. Suicide bombers are targeting military and other high profile targets at will even in most secured areas and drawing blood.

Externally, our western border is in a state of flux with unfriendly Afghanistan that has colluded with India . On one hand India has engaged Pakistan in fruitless peace talks and lulled our senses, on the other it is busy hatching conspiracies to destabilise it. Its intelligence agency RAW in collusion with Afghanistan's RAM are not only training the saboteurs and suicide bombers but also providing funds, arms, explosives and wireless sets to the anti-social elements in Baluchistan, Fata and Swat. These clandestine activities are taking place with the tacit understanding of US/Nato military command. Despite Pakistan paying a heavy price to fight the US war on terror; it is being accused by USA and Afghanistan of not doing enough to contain cross border terrorism into Afghanistan and in liquidating terrorism in Fata. It is also being accused that its security system is not good enough to prevent its nuclear assets falling into wrong hands. Doomsday scenario of Pakistan breaking up into quasi states is also floated by US think tanks off and on.

The inundation of Indo-US collusion when viewed in context with Indo-Israeli alignment have impinged upon the interests of Pakistan, the ramifications of which will have drastic impact on Pakistan's security. USA will keep Pakistan on board as a tactical partner as long as it is relevant.

The day it becomes irrelevant, it will be unceremoniously dumped. As such, it is unlikely that America will take any step both during peace and war favouring Pakistan at the cost of annoying India . Any facilitation on Kashmir will be entirely on Indian terms.

The US did not come to our rescue in 1971 when India was the strategic partner of USSR and we had played a crucial role in bringing a rapprochement between USA-China. Russia being another strategic ally of India will remain inclined towards her. In its bid to regain a foothold in Afghanistan , Russia may also be helping the ruling Northern Alliance elements in anti-Pakistan activities. This is evident from Russian brand weapons

captured from the miscreants operating in two trouble spots.

EU is also favourably disposed towards India . China being our close friend has her own compulsions. Having adopted a wholly commercial approach, it will not enter into any defence agreement to fight our war particularly after it has removed differences with India .

The impotence of the Muslim world is well known. It can at best provide limited material, moral and diplomatic support, which will be of little value. Iran is itself under immense pressure of getting isolated and will not like to upset India with which it has close cooperation in numerous fields. Sensing the jingoism of USA and Israel against Iran 's nuclear program, we should pray that our backyard may not turn volatile. In the recent past, two sovereign states have been trampled and the world has accepted the illegal occupations without raising an eye brow. Some say that after Iran , Pakistan may be in the firing line because of its nuclear capability and housing large number of extremist elements. In case such a scenario takes practical shape sometime in the future, do we have contingency plans to meet this kind of a threat? We have already gone through a very painful experience in 1971 when Indian army operated 59 training camps along our eastern front to train the rebels. Neither USA nor UN took any notice of it. None came to our rescue when Indian forces aided by USSR vivisected Pakistan . The projected scenario may not be altogether hypothetical when seen in the context of Indo-US strategic goals in Afro-Asian region and India still seeing Pakistan as the only stumbling block in her way to achieve her hegemonic ambitions. It should be clear that India will harm us whenever any opportunity comes its way.

The coming days are full of challenges and pitfalls. Pakistan will have to rely on its own capabilities to face the emerging dangers. We will have to bear our burden ourselves and should not expect anyone else to come to our rescue.

Our foreign policy needs a re-appraisal to tackle the fast changing geopolitical realities in the region. Without being US centric, we should work towards guarding our national interests and at the same time avoid ruffling Bush's feathers. New avenues, which promise mutually beneficial relationship and cooperation, should be explored. Dialogue with India must now focus on the solution of contentious issues including Kashmir and Siachen. As long as Karzai remains a puppet in US and Northern Alliance hands, we should not expect anything good from that side. Still, efforts should be made to remove the misperceptions of the ruling cabal with the help of other Muslim countries and in case we succeed in taking them in confidence, try and break the Indo-Afghan alignment. While endearing to forge long-term strategic relationship with China and Iran , we should upgrade our defensive capability and also take steps to keep our nuclear deterrence potent. This becomes essential in the backdrop of India 's plan to acquire anti-ballistic missiles capability by the year 2010.

Internally, the bottlenecks that obstruct national integration must be identified for removal and full-scale reconciliation among the divides that keep us polarised should be achieved. The guns of hate and antagonism must point towards our common enemy rather than towards own people.

Our publicity department should come out of its defensive and reactive mode and work upon a proper strategy to effectively counter the Indo-Afghan-western propaganda campaign. Presently it is entirely geared towards scoring points against the Islamists, militants and opponents of the regime. We need to revive our warrior spirit without which nations die.

(The writer is a retired Brig. and author of books, Muhammad Bin Qasim to Gen Pervez Musharraf' and 'Roots of 1971 Tragedy'. )

Where peace is a matter of imagination

Joan Chittister

There are some things in life which, if we want them badly enough, we simply have to do ourselves. I was in Korea last week, in tiny Hwacheon (Wa-shon) County, and I saw the proof of that with my own eyes.

The temptation, of course, is to wait for someone else to do something.

But if we wait long enough, it finally dawns: there's no use expecting someone else to do what everyone knows must be done. They have other interests, or other priorities, or other agendas. Or maybe they even have other reasons for keeping things just the way they are.

So, we find ourselves with choices to make: We can simply forget the whole thing. We can say, "That's the way things are." Or we can go on year after year, business as usual, accepting things as they are but hoping for something else. Or we can say, "Well, it will surely happen some day. It's a matter of being patient."

Or, possibly, hopefully, maybe we decide that it's better to die trying than not to try at all.

No doubt about it: It's a dilemma. Imagine this one, for instance.

Korea is involved in the longest unfinished war in modern history. Caught between the interests of the Four Great Powers - China, Japan, Russia and the United States - the Korean War, an appendage to World War II - a by-product of World War II - broke out in June 1950 to stop the spread of Communism in the region and, at the same time, to secure a foothold for the West in Asia. "We never went to war ourselves," the Koreans say. "We have only fought surrogate wars."

By 1953, 37,000 U.S. soldiers had been killed in the Korean War, 350,000 Koreans, and over 100,000 Chinese - in The War that Simply Will Not Go Away.

But military statistics do not really tell the story: As a result of the Korean War, two million civilians died or were injured and 10 million were displaced.

Families as well as the land were cut in two and talk of reunification was considered treason. The psychological and intellectual effects of the Korean War persist to this day. "Our children have been indoctrinated to hate their brothers and sisters in the North," the professor told us. "Our young intellectuals are 'disabled.' They cannot think beyond international barriers. They cannot even think of reading Karl Marx. There is no intellectual freedom. They are disabled and isolated."

Fifty-seven years later, the two Koreas remain in an uneasy cease-fire and separated by the longest militarized border in the world. A No-One's-Land, the DMZ or Demilitarized Zone, symbolizes the psychic distance between two parts of the same country and the division of families it imposes on a family-oriented culture. To this day, two million armed troops - brothers, cousins and uncles - stand face to face against each other, on one side or the other of the four mile Nowhere between them.

Politicians have spent the years railing at one another, playing Cold War games in the middle of what people there call a "Cold Peace," and setting up observation towers to watch one another's troops plant crops or rumble their trucks up and down the mountains while nothing else happened.

And no one did anything.

Enter one man and one small county to change the situation.

Hwacheon County borders the DMZ. It is a county of 27,000 citizens and 35,000 troops. Living in Hwacheon is like living in an armed garrison waiting, waiting, waiting for who knows what? Or when? Or where? Or why?

Hwacheon County is a narrow valley strung from one end to the other with small rice paddies, ginseng plots and vegetable gardens. There is in that place, as well, one army base after another and, oh yes, the "Peace Dam."

Built only to protect the area from flooding in the event that North Korea's Imnan Dam, 36 kilometers above it, should ever break or, heaven forbid, be deliberately opened, the Peace Dam is, in fact, a war dam. It holds no water, gives no electricity, and has no secondary function. It is simply a $40-million-dollar bowl that is empty. Just in case.

The Peace Dam is, in other words, a metaphor for a country suspended in a war that has for long been domesticated but will not disappear. It is a distant, ever-present war cloud that hangs just over the border from Hwacheon County that to this day remembers the pain and fear and fury of it all and wants it over.

But then, one day in 2005, in a casual meeting on a village street, the local mayor, Jeong Gap-Cheol and the local philosopher, Professor Kim Yong-Bok, Chancellor of the Asia Pacific Graduate School for the Study of Life, determined that if peace would not come to Hwacheon, Hwacheon would become it themselves. (www.peacebell.co.kr) "Peace begins in Hwacheon," they decided, "in Hwacheon, the Peace Capital of the World."

To prove it, they would create a World Peace Bell out of spent cartridges from around the world. They would begin to turn the DMZ, a monument to death, into a Wildlife Preserve. And they would become a center for the study of the relationship between ecology and peace, with the otter, an endangered species in their midst, as the symbol of it.

"After all," they tell you, "bells can be heard across borders and otters swim freely on both sides of the DMZ because they cannot be stopped by wire and dams."

The metal peace bell is now being fabricated and will be hung next year about this time. For now a wooden bell - which does not make a sound - marks the place.

The whole project feels almost surreal. It defies political separation. It redefines freedom as more than cease-fires. It celebrates the life that war threatens, both human and natural. But, most of all, it calls the attention of both North and South Korea - of the entire world - to the desire, the demand, for peace by those who refuse to go on participating in prejudice and political war games.

From where I stand, it is a very bold project. Impossible, some may say. Even foolish. But oh, so beautiful, so rational, so clear.

And, by the way, just as they thought, people are beginning to come from all parts of the globe to stand there with them at the border of 21st century insanity where a mayor, a professor, and a tiny county are saying no to war and yes to human community.

Putin and Russian Presidency

Dr.Abdul Ruff

Russian President Vladimir Putin has named his first deputy prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, 42, as his chosen successor. The vote will take place on 2 March. Russia's presidential election campaign will officially begin shortly, with Medvedev the clear favorite to win. He is way ahead of his three main rivals in the opinion polls, the closest being Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, who has failed to mount a serious challenge since the mid-1990s. The veteran nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky is also running - but his tough talk is unlikely to translate into much more than a tenth of the vote, our correspondent says. Andrei Bogdanov is the fourth and final candidate. He leads Russia's tiny Democratic Party and is only polling around 1% and is insignificant. If Medvedev wins, as expected, Putin is expected to become prime minister, as suggested by Medvedev.

On the streets of the country's towns and cities, everything looks more stable and comfortable than at any time in the post-Soviet period. Because of stability, Putin is placed above his processor and former President Boris Yeltsin and famed M. Gorbachev. "The tsars and the general secretaries of the Communist Party died while in office, and Yeltsin and Gorbachev retired with zero ratings," notes Nikonov, a political analyst with close ties to the Kremlin. Now Putin might retire with a rating of closer to 80%. It's unprecedented. However, the comparative stability Russia has enjoyed under President Putin has made people wary of change. In 2008, Russia will undergo a transfer of power unlike any in its history.

Thanks to Putin's strenuous efforts, Russia is on the rise again as a global power - keen to win respect and support for its views on issues such as the future of Kosovo and the Iranian nuclear program. This new sense of strength is founded on the wealth which has come with soaring prices for the natural resources which Russia has in abundance. As demand for oil and gas continues to grow, many in the West are looking warily eastwards, wondering whether Russia is a reliable partner. The quandary of what to do with a popular Russian leader still in the land of the living continues to perplex.

Putin remains a strong force not just in Kremlin, but in the Russian psyche and in the mind-set of many Russians. He is main force agsint US-led unipolalrity and NATO's unilateralism. HIs leaving the international scene could wreck the Russian mind. But if he becomes premier of Russia, Russian presdiencey would suffer. "There may be a weaker president if Putin stays on the scene," concedes one source close to the administration. "Putin knows this and probably has something in mind." It is an issue not just inside Russia, but around the world. The year 2008 will also answer the question: "What next for Russia's most popular politician?" Medvedev has offered Putin the prime minister's job. Until his acceptance, Putin seems to have kept even Kremlin insiders in the dark. Numerous other options were talked about. It was suggested, for example, that Putin could become head of Russia's national Security Council - a role which is not clearly defined, and which he could therefore make his own.

Putin fight against corruption and his efforts to streamline Russian politics and economic fortunes endeared him to Russians and also made him hated by wealthy classes in Russia. Some of the oligarchs who acquired great wealth and power in the 1990s have fled the country, fearing prosecution. Mikhail Khodorkovsky stayed. He sits in a Siberian prison cell, convicted of fraud and tax evasion. Putin's popularity is such that Medvedev, who also runs the state gas giant Gazprom, is almost sure to win. Interest is focusing on how much of Putin's popularity Medvedev can inherit at the ballot box - and how much power Putin will retain. Medvedev's main responsibility under President Putin has been overseeing Russia's national projects - programs to fix the faults in the country's infrastructure. If Putin has finally made up his mind to make him the next President, Medvedev will have a cake walk in the poll.

But the big one trillion dollar question is: will Vladimir Putin disappoint the majority Russians by quitting the Kremlin once for all now or even take up a smaller responsibility at the Kremlin hereafter?