The New Nation - Internet Edition

The agenda of gas import

QUOTING highly placed source close to the government, the media reported that the government is actively considering import of gas from Myanmar to meet gas crisis in the country. This is reportedly going to be done as part of a bid to meet the shortage of power and gas by 2009. To this end, the government is also going to strengthen gas exploration activities in both offshore areas and the mainland. The Council of Advisers is expected to approve a production sharing contract (PSC) model soon to help expedite the process.

In the not too distant a past, certain quarters both in the country and outside were spreading a rumour that Bangladesh has a huge reserve of gas that would be exported to earn foreign exchange. Certain foreign agencies also put pressure on Bangladesh to export gas. Arguments in favour of gas export were not based on correct statistics about the proven recoverable reserve of gas in the country. Now the idea of importing gas has come to the fore as a shocking news. According to the Bangladesh Economic Review 2007, the proven recoverable gas reserve in the country was 15.189 TCF. Till date, the cumulative production being 6.793 TCF, the gas awaiting extraction stands at 8.396 TCF, which is likely to exhaust by 2011. Gas is used mainly for the generation of power, production of fertiliser and for commercial and household uses. About 90 percent of power generation at present is commercial from the use of gas. So, considering the recoverable reserve and the demand for gas, Bangladesh is now in an uncomfortable situation in respect of medium and long-term energy security. Unless new gas fields are explored and developed to add gas supply to the national grid, production of power and fertiliser would be difficult to continue and the national economy will be faced with a severe blow. As mentioned earlier, the remaining gas reserve is estimated to last only another three years if no new gas fields are developed. So, the government should quicken the process of exploration and development of gas fields.

There are a number of offshore blocks earmarked for oil and gas exploration, of which 20 are in the deep-sea with depths ranging from 500m to 2,500m. Exploration in these blocks needs to be started at the soonest. But the unsettled maritime boundary with India and Myanmar may delay the third round bidding process for those blocks. Reportedly, Indian and Myanmar maps of offshore blocks overlap Bangladesh's 5,000 sq. km in the deep sea. The demarcation of maritime borders with the two neighbouring countries should be pursued in right earnest to make sure that speedy exploration and development of probable gas blocks is not hampered in the process.

For eradication of 'monga'

"MONGA" meaning the high price of goods is experienced in northern districts including Rangpur during the months of "Ashwin" and "Kartik" of the Bengali Calendar. the availability of good grains turns scrence if there is loss of crops including paddy due to natural calamities. the transplanted 'Aman' paddy, planted in the months of "Sraban" and "Bhadra", is harvested in the month of "Agrahayan." the production of this paddy is in some years affected by natural calamities like drought and flooding. As a result, farmers in general and the lower-income group people in particular face food shortage for months together till the harvest o the next crop.

The marginal farmers and share-croppers in northern districts do not have dequate resources for buying farm-inputs for augmenting production of crops. They borrow from local money-lenders at high rates of interest for the purpose and turn long-defaulters. In many cases they sell their property including farm land to repay the loans and meet daily needs. This category of people become direct victims of 'monga" every year. In such a context, the assertion of the Chief Adviser at a public meeting at Gangachhara Upazila of Rangpur district to help overcome "monga" on a lasting basis is commendable. The move of the government may be fruitful if activates of other stakeholders of the areas are put together. the setting up of industrial zones and commercial areas in the northern region may lead to the creation of employment for rural people. The processing of farm outputs may create job opportunities for the younger generation of people.

Beyond that, the entry of the youngsters into other employment market would help increase the earnings of many families to fight monga. Efforts should be made for updating technical skills of the youngsters in the northern region and scholarships for the qualified ones among them have to be provided by the government. the cabinet committee on "monga" and poverty alleviation has to work without loss of time to help overcome the problem at the earliest. As suggested by the Chief Adviser, the cultivation of diversified food and other corps and expanding income-generation activates in the northern region have to be ensured. the cultivation of BR-33 variety of paddy has to be augmented with timely supply of inputs to the farming community. the ownership of land may also be brought under review for ultimately enabling marginal farmers and share-croppers to obtain due return on investment and the manual labour used for farming to get adequate wage.

Ensuring a smooth flow of information

Maswood Alam Khan

Many years back on the outskirts of Calcutta city an owner of a small shop of 'lep', 'toshak' and 'balish' (quilt, mattress and pillow) had his tough time selling his products as not many customers used to stop by his shop. Frustrated with a bleak prospect of business he almost decided to switch to a different career. But before closing his shop he tried a novelty approach to attract customers: he simply turned the signboard of his shop with its upside down making it difficult for a passerby to read his signpost. As many people feeling vexed at the weird way of displaying the signboard entered his shop to ask for an explanation, the shop-owner would respond: "You would not have crossed the threshold of my shop if the signpost was as usual. Please take a tea." His business on bedding ultimately roared vigorously and the signboard was later reaffixed uprightly.

Attracting attention of prospective customers in this frantic age of hysterical busyness is a tough job---no more as simple as reversing the signpost of a shop. People don't have time even to enjoy a smooth and deep breathing. Every single person is chasing after money and work and success for survival; one who hobbles has to give up the chase and is careened away onto the sideline. In our chase we cannot afford time to look at a signpost of a shop or an advertisement on a billboard unless we---on our way to work or on our way to entertainment or on our way to a search for what we desperately need---have but to penetrate through the face of a screen embellished with an advertisement. That screen is the newest gold mine business tycoons are nowadays rushing to conquer. The latest tycoon who on last Friday had his eye on such a screen is Mr. Bill Gates, the owner of Microsoft Corp.

Microsoft Corp has made an unsolicited offer to buy Yahoo Inc for $44.6 billion in cash and stock in what would be the biggest Internet deal since the Time Warner-AOL merger. Microsoft said on Friday it offered $31 per share for Yahoo, or a 62 percent premium over Yahoo's closing stock price in NASDAQ on Thursday. Yahoo Inc, whose shares jumped to $30.75 in pre-market trading, said it would evaluate the bid.

When a brewing recession as the sword of Damocles is now hanging on the capital markets all over the world, when US employers are cutting payrolls and when investors have not yet forgotten the tragic $182 billion purchase in 2001 of Time Warner Inc by AOL (America Online)---the worst merger in recent corporate history---what, everybody is now wondering, has actually propelled Microsoft to join forces with Yahoo being full aware of the fact that these two companies have different corporate cultures and many overlapping businesses---the very same reason that made promised synergies out of marriage between Time Warner and AOL never materialize due to their clashing corporate cultures? One however who is aware of the business potential of online advertisements only knows the secret: Himalayan amount of money that can be minted in a matter of time if a giant called "Google" can be killed or injured.

The online advertising market is growing rapidly and expected to reach nearly $80 billion by 2010 from over $40 billion in 2007. "Microsoft, the world's largest software company, together with Yahoo can offer an exciting set of solutions for consumers, publishers and advertisers while becoming better positioned to compete in the online services market, which is now dominated by Google", the software company hopes.

There was a time not in the distant past when like door chimes jingling in the breeze advertisement rhymes broadcast by radios or telecast by televisions used to ring in our ears and sing in our minds like music. Children preferred singing those ad rhymes on toiletries to reciting poems from texts in their libraries.

With advertisements in prints and electronic media galore at every crossroads of our life ad rhymes have gradually lost their appeal to our ears and eyes. A break in a TV program for airing an advertisement is now deemed a slap on our face. We mute sound the moment an advertisement starts over radio or television; we ask for downloading TV dramas pruning those footages of advertisements for our viewing at a later time to free ourselves from the onslaught of advertisements. Unsolicited and pervasive commercial advertisements through radios, televisions, billboards etc. are constantly reinforcing a phony link between consumption and happiness, invading our mental spaces, blunting our ability to determine the truthfulness of those ad messages and squandering our resources, which could otherwise be utilized for our fundamental, societal and long-term needs.

But economic growth cannot be imagined without advertising. There are companies who spend half of their working capital on advertisements alone that help sell their products at exponential growth rate. Non-commercial entities also have to rely on advertisement for their organizational growth. Commerce or public welfare without advertisement is a highway without directional signposts. US$385 billion was spent for worldwide advertising in 2006 as was reported by the accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers. The accounting firm's report projected worldwide advertisement spending to exceed half a trillion dollar by 2010. Continuous research by advertising agencies on how creative advertisements can leave lasting impression in viewers' and readers' minds has developed advertising business to its present potential as the instrumental force behind marketing.

Advertisements through newspaper, billboard, radio and television have proved that messages in the forms of subliminal advertising once reach the readers' and viewers' minds work magically to enhance sale. The only block that stands between the consumers' minds and the advertisers' messages is restrained scope and constrained time. Now that people are increasingly getting dependent on computer for work and home and internet provides the easiest window for inflow and outflow of information communication through websites have opened new frontiers for advertisers to make their messages reach the viewers.

The website the computer users draw on most while browsing through their internet explorers to hunt information on anything from any corner of the world is primarily a "search engine" called Google. Just type the Internet address www.google.com in the Address bar, click the Go button, wait for a while and then type a word or words in the Search Bar---a world of links with short descriptions are ready for your service. Information are now just a few clicks away!

Google is not the only website to provide you the service to garner information. There are hundreds and thousands of websites who are always at your service completely free of cost. Those websites only want you to enter the world of information riding their own search engines because that is the time advertisers, who are their business partners, will shower their messages before your eyes. As a search engine Google is number one enjoying 77 percent of worldwide web search market share, while Yahoo is the second with only 16 percent and Microsoft a distant third with a mere 3.7 percent.

Names like Yahoo, Hotmail and Gmail are very common to any internet user thanks to free email services being provided by Microsoft.com, Yahoo.com and Google.com respectively to millions of people many whom don't have computers of their own. Such web-based email services have made post boxes of snail mails redundant and internet users obsessed with the service---the way serving tea for free to people in the last century have made later generations addicted to tea.

Anyone having such web-based email addresses can send and receive tomes of news, letters, messages, pictures, voices, music, movies and what not through any computer with internet access from anywhere in the world. In addition to email services these three stake holders provide many other services like delivery of news, music and financial services---all free of cost. Yahoo alone attracts more than 500 million people monthly to a range of media sites including Yahoo Mail, the world's biggest e-mail service for consumers. Though young in age Gmail, the email wing of Google, is now gaining tremendous popularity for their offering ever-increasing free space to each subscriber.

Gurus of commerce know it well that humans will for ever chase after money and work and success and they need information which is now as valuable as oxygen for their nourishment and survival as long as they will remain on the chasing track. There is no alternative to internet and no alternative to a search engine like that of Google or Yahoo that can ensure a smooth supply of information for generations.

Before a new invention that may enable a human to transport his own body instantly to any corner of the world through matter transfusion---as we view in Star Trek movie series---we have but to rely on Google or Yahoo for the time being to provide us a Time Machine that can haul us to Library of Congress to read a rare book there or to the Planet Mars to observe her topography. What else could sound to Mr. Bill Gates a better business proposition than the job of transporting our sensory entity on a virtual search engine through World Wide Web?

Bridging the Gulf

Nicole Stracke

THE decision to establish a French military base in Abu Dhabi was unexpected news that straightaway generated a great deal of interest in the Gulf region and beyond. Setting up a permanent military presence in the Gulf region, where they had no such presence before, the French are driven by a new political vision and a review of their strategic interests.

For the UAE government, the decision to allow the first foreign military base on its territory is equally driven by new strategic considerations. There is no doubt that the move to establish the base in Abu Dhabi was founded on mutual agreement and on the principle of shared benefits for the two sovereign states. Yet, the motivation behind the decision has to be seen from different angles.

Judging from the limited number of military personnel who are to be stationed permanently on the base (between 400-600 French servicemen), the main function of the base could not be military operations but rather providing logistical, communication, and monitoring support. Given France's limited military capability and the modest size of its naval capacity, the Sarkozy government must have placed the French interests in the Gulf region on top of their agenda. A French military base in Abu Dhabi is a strategic long-term investment and one must assume that such an investment fits in with the state's strategic vision to play a greater role in the Gulf in the future.

With a military base on the UAE coast, the French can now keep an eye on the Gulf waters, and in particular the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 per cent of world's oil export passes, as well as the neighbouring countries such as Iran. Over the past few years, French naval forces have been paying regular visits to the Gulf ports, and cooperating with the US in patrolling the Gulf waters. However, a continuous monitoring operation in the Gulf is more expensive in the long run than having a base in one of the regional states. France also believes that a military base will improve its image and credibility as an important player in the international political arena and this, in turn, could bring it a greater political and economic role in the Gulf.

The growing Russian and Chinese interest in the region on one hand and the weakening of US power and influence on the other have persuaded France to bridge the emerging security gap and establish a modest foothold in the region. In principle, having a military base in the Gulf close to hot spots such as Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan brings about a long-term commitment for the French government in world politics; at the same time it could place France in the firing line and could force undesirable involvement in regional conflicts.

As for the UAE, the establishment of a military base is the logical result of rising tensions in the Gulf waters, in particular the threat from the increasing power and the hegemonic aspirations of Iran. Given the state's small size and population which impose a limitation on its military power, the UAE lacks self-defence capabilities.

Therefore, as in the case of most other Gulf States, it depends on external protection. But in comparison to its smaller GCC partners such as Kuwait, Bahrain or Qatar, the UAE, until now, had no foreign military base on its territory. With the growing tensions in the Gulf region, in particular the belligerent behaviour of its neighbour Iran over the past years, the UAE feels vulnerable to outside threats and intimidation.

Unlike its GCC partners, the government in Abu Dhabi does not think that the solution to its security concerns lies in inviting US troops to set up a military base. Given the negative US image in the region, the UAE government may have felt that despite the strong bilateral political and defence relations, a US military base would not be a wise idea, and could be a source of insecurity rather than security. Relatively speaking, the French image in the Gulf region is far better than that of the US, and even more positive than the image of the British. The French-Gulf relations are not burdened with any negative colonial baggage.

The mutual decision to establish the military base, therefore, must be seen against the background of the rapidly burgeoning French-UAE relations in a wide variety of fields. Apart from the long-standing military and security cooperation, which finds its origin in the 1995

mutual defence agreement between the two states, political, economic, cultural, and educational cooperation are also in the ascendant.

The question remains whether the US, which is the dominant foreign "power" in the Gulf waters, agreed to the UAE-France deal. The US is the major strategic ally of the GCC states, and therefore, we can assume that any major decision such as the one to establish a French military base could not be made without its concurrence, especially taking into account the recent significant improvement in US-French relations.

Moreover, the US military currently is coping with major and multiple military commitments in the Gulf and its adjacent areas, primarily the crises in Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran. The security situation in the region has placed the US military under enormous strain, stretching its resources. Therefore, the US may well need another potential ally to share responsibilities and ease the military burden.

A French military base in the UAE could also benefit NATO. In 2004, NATO initiated the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI), a strategic partnership between NATO and some GCC states. The UAE and France are both part of the initiative and we can assume that a military base in Abu Dhabi would contribute to a better NATO-GCC understanding, deepening the relations in particular with regard to security cooperation, military exercises and information sharing, all topics that are on top of the ICI agenda.

For France, the military base certainly improves its status within NATO as well as with the US as it would become the only NATO member other than the US that is stationed in the Gulf.

Not surprisingly, the only country which does not seem at ease with the establishment of a French military base is Iran. Only one day after the official announcement, Iranian commentators sharply criticised France and branded its government as a puppet of the US. In fact, for the regime in Teheran, the establishment of a French military base in the UAE, close to the Strait of Hormuz is a major strategic concern.

The Iranian government had made it very clear in the past that the withdrawal of all foreign forces from the Gulf is "an essential precondition" for establishing a regional security system in the region. Now, Iran is not only faced with US military bases at its doorstep, but also with a French base and the gradual internationalisation of Gulf security.

And while the decision to set up a military base may seem like a win-win situation for France and the UAE, both governments are walking a narrow path. If the Sarkozy government wants to play a major role in the Gulf and shape its role within NATO, it needs to clarify and separate its strategic interest and regional agenda from that of the US. Otherwise France's public image in the region eventually will be dented and its leadership will be perceived as being another marionette of the US. As for the UAE, it can be expected that the French presence in Abu Dhabi will expose the UAE government to aggressive Iranian rhetoric whenever the regime in Teheran finds it useful.