The New Nation - Internet Edition

Agencies

A win is a win is a win, but what if the victory is over nothing? Or, in the case of New York Senator Hillary Clinton's walkover in the Michigan primary Tuesday night, no one?

As punishment to the state for moving up the date of its primary, the Democratic National Committee had stripped Michigan of its delegates, and the other major Democratic presidential candidates, Senator Barack Obama and former Senator John Edwards, had taken themselves off the ballot. But Clinton remained in the race and managed to grab 55 percent of the vote, putting her more than 50 points ahead of the next-closest named competitor, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, who earned 4 percent.

But a potentially troubling result for Clinton is that 40 percent of Michigan voters (236,723 in total) opted to declare themselves "uncommitted," many in protest of the DNC's decision to withhold the delegates. Even worse, in a number of precincts, Clinton was actually beaten by the uncommitted vote, in some cases by as much as 5 percentage points.

Over the past few days, Hillary Clinton has closed the gap in South Carolina's Presidential Primary and pulled to within five points of Barack Obama. Last week, Obama was leading by twelve.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in South Carolina shows Obama earning 38% of the vote, Clinton attracting 33%, and John Edwards at 17%.

While Obama's lead has slipped, his support is more solid than Clinton's at this point in time. Eighty-two percent (82%) of Obama supporters say they are "certain" they will vote for him on January 26. Just 67% of Clinton voters are that "certain" along with 65% of those currently supporting Edwards.

Among white voters, Clinton leads Obama 40% to 21% with John Edwards picking up 31% of the vote. Among African-American voters, Obama leads Clinton by 23 percentage points. This racial divide is also found in national polling.

Clinton leads Obama by three points among women in South Carolina but trails by sixteen among men.

In December, Obama and Clinton were tied in South Carolina at 33%. In November, Clinton had a ten-point advantage.

Eighty percent (80%) have a favorable opinion of Clinton, 77% say the same about Obama, Clinton, and 74% offer a positive assessment of Edwards.

Among African-American voters, 86% have a favorable opinion of Obama while 82% say the same about Clinton. At the same time, 78% of white voters offer a favorable assessment of Clinton. Just 66% of white voters say the same about Obama. In South Carolina, roughly half of the Democratic voters are expected to be African-American.

Among those who currently plan to vote for John Edwards, 68% have a favorable opinion of Clinton while 56% say the same about Obama.

On the Republican side of the aisle, John McCain received a significant bounce from his victory in New Hampshire and now holds a narrow lead in South Carolina's GOP Primary.

Rasmussen Markets data suggests that Barack Obama is currently favored to win in South Carolina. Current prices imply that Obama has a 79.4 % chance of winning while Clinton has a 22.5 % chance. Numbers in this paragraph reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, RasmussenMarkets.com harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events.

We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.