The New Nation - Internet Edition

A.T.M.Nurun Nabi

The country's proven gas reserves of 8.39 TCF are likely to be exhausted by 2011 and the probable reserves of 13.6 TCF by the end of the year 2015, indicating the possible shutdown of 90 percent gas-run-power plants, demonstrating the looming of serious energy crisis if its substitute, coal, as energy is not extracted from the mines or new gas fields are not discovered.

According to 'Power Sector Master Plan Update 2006' prepared by Nexant, in order to reach GDP to eight percent, 450 million tonnes of coal will be required for 'coal based plants' between 2005 and 2025. The country will be requiring 75 million tonnes of coal in 2025 alone to produce 32,837 megawatt of electricity out of total 41,899 mw .. On this ratio, 375 (75X5) million tonnes of coal will be required for next five years from 2026 [and 750 (75XlO) million tonnes for next 10 years from 2026 totalling 1200 (450+750) million tonnes (2005-2035)].

As to the extraction of coal, there are two methods. One is the 'open pit method' and the other is 'underground mining method'. The cost of extraction under the former method is 60 dollars per tonne and that under the latter is 103 dollars. Under the open pit method, 90 percent extraction is possible while under the underground mining method, 20 percent could be extracted.

The severe drawbacks under the open pit method are that thousands of people living in and outside the mine(s) will be homeless and the environment in and around the locality will be seriously affected. So, to avert agitation and turmoil by the probable displaced inhabitants, prior-rehabilitation of them must be done before the coal company (ies) begins work in the coalmine area(s). If the government does not do that, creation of more Phulbari cannot be ruled out.

At present, there are proven reserves of 2,221 million tonnes of coal in the country's five coalmjnes (all in North Bengal). The full particulars are furnished below: -

(In million tonnes)

Locationlfield- Year of Discovery-Drilled Well-Depth-Proven Reserves- Probables

I.B arapukuri a 1985-87 31 118-509m 303 390

Dinajpur

2.Khalashpur 1989-90 14 257-483 143 685

Rangpur

3.Phulbari 1997 108 150-240 572 572

Dinajpur

4.Dighipara 1994-95 5 328-407 150 600

Dinajpur

5.Jamalganj 1962 10 640-1158 1053 1053

Jpypurhat

Total 2221 3300

(Sources: BCML, ABC, GSB)

If the open pit method is applied, about 1050 million tonnes of coal could be extracted from four mines (except Jamalganj) while 235 million under underground mining method, enough to produce electricity till 2022. In truth, the dependence on the coal based power plants and the industries will be in danger if the proven gas reserves are exhausted by 2015 and if no new gas field is discovered. Since 1,200 million tonnes of coal will be required for power plants only, the question of export does not at all arise. Not only that, the government can't give any kind of guarantee of supplying gas to any foreign company desiring to invest (regardless of amount) in Bangladesh.

The country will need 13,408 mw of electricity in 2015, 24,405 in 2020 and 41,899 in 2025 if the GDP reaches 8 percent. On the other hand, there will be necessity of 9,786 mw in 2015, 13,993 in 2020 and 19,312 in 2025 in case of GDP entering 5.2 percent, claims Nexant. It is therefore imperative on the part of the interim government to draft a clear coal policy right now in order to avert crises and to free the country from the curse of load shedding by 2012.