The New Nation - Internet Edition

Dr.Abdul Ruff

Pakistan has been in a state of crisis for quit some time now for political and "terrorism" reasons. Latest power struggle between major political players has aggravated the situation further. After retiring from the army to assume presidency for the second time and announcing 08 January as date for Parliamentary polls, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf lifted emergency rule on 15 December, a day ahead of his promise, in a move to appease US-led western "democratic" powers, annoyed with the imposition of emergency in the country last month. The action did also somewhat cool down the political temperature in Pakistan. And, certainly, Musharraf's action of closing emergency was not because the former General is quite afraid of former Pakistani prime-ministers. This sop would, undoubtedly, have satisfied Washington to some extent.

Citing spiraling militant violence, Musharraf imposed the emergency on November 3, suspended the constitution and purged the Supreme Court to fend off challenges to his re-election, with new judges, as it happens in democracies like India and USA, have since rubber-stamped. The Pakistani media criticized a ban on live broadcasts as an attempt to control election coverage. The end of the emergency may not change that.

Meanwhile, Pervez Musharraf has also amended six articles of the Pakistan's constitution ahead of lifting Emergency rule to consolidate his grip on power ahead of the January 8 parliamentary polls and to prevent legal challenges to his action of sacking judges of the superior judiciary. All those judges who did not take oath under Emergency rule cease to hold their offices. According to statement issued by the law ministry, an amendment was made to article 41 to allow the election of the President before the completion of his tenure of five years. Article 44 was amended to change the grounds for the disqualification of the President. Article 270C of the constitution was amended to provide that the judges of the superior judiciary who did not endorse the Emergency and take oath under the Provisional Constitutional Order would "cease to hold office with effect from" November 3. The judges who took oath under the PCO will continue to hold office.

Emergency anywhere is clamped only to promote one-man or woman rule. Obviously, emergency in Pakistan was proclaimed by Musharraf to ensure smooth his drive to the Presidential chair and perpetuate his rule against the political storm in the country seeking his summary dismissal. "He has got it done and it's now useless if emergency rule stays or is removed. There is no guarantee he won't stage this emergency again if he sees his rule in danger." "Yes, the emergency has been lifted," said a government official who declined to be identified. Musharraf addressed the nation on TV and radio. But critics say curbs on the media and judiciary mean that he can still manipulate a January 8 general election win for his allies and secure a power base despite his unpopularity. India says that Musharraf remains a credible interlocutor for India, but would prefer Bhutto, who committed herself to closing down terror camps and curbing private militias in Pakistan.

The election is essentially a three-way battle between parties loyal to Musharraf, Sharif and Bhutto. The return of Benazir Bhutto, former PM, to Pakistan after a decade in self-imposed exile was only possible after the Musharraf government passed a "national reconciliation" rule that effectively pardons Mrs. Bhutto and her associates. Her political nemesis, Sharif, who returned to Pakistan last month but without such a pardon, was rejected for office by the Election Commission. Ms Bhutto said the lifting of the emergency was an "important step forward", but said more needed to be done before Pakistan's democracy was fully restored.

Under Pakistan's constitution, Mrs. Bhutto will be ineligible to serve a third term as prime minister, but her advisers freely acknowledge that if the PPP and PML-Nawaz can muster two-thirds support in parliament they can change the law back to three terms or even four - which would benefit both. "I have not been convicted of any crime," said Mrs. Bhutto, whose governments were twice dissolved with charges of corruption. She has rejected all accusations against her and her family as being "politically motivated."

Oxford and Harvard educated Bhutto, 54, "daughter of East", had been regarded in the West as a potential partner for Musharraf, a crucial U.S. ally in its fight against al Qaeda, but prospects for a power-sharing deal dimmed after Musharraf imposed emergency rule on November 3. Bhutto returned to Pakistan last month from an eight year self-imposed exile to challenge President Pervez Musharraf's grip on power. Musharraf's political allies are likely to fare badly in the election, putting a question mark over his long-term rule. Bhutto, who survived an assassination attempt blamed on "Islamist militants", last month, said she was confident her Pakistan People's Party would sweep the January 8 general election.

Benazir Bhutto took her election campaign to the power base of Islamist groups, urging Pashtuns living on the Afghan border to vote for her. "I have come here to seek your help and cooperation to turn this land of Pashtuns into a cradle of peace," she said while addressing around 2,000 party activists in Peshawar, the capital of North West Frontier Province that borders Afghanistan. "I appeal to you not to fall into the trap of those who believe in violence. Reject those who want to form the government at gunpoint."

Benazir claimed that Musharraf fulfilled two of Bhutto's demands. But there are no signs they are resuming dialog. She also wants the Election Commission reconstituted and local government leaders suspended to ensure a fair vote. "We are taking part in the election under protest because enemies of the people are trying to rig the polls," she said. Bhutto has left open the option of joining another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, who returned from exile, in a boycott. Sharif, who was barred from running on 13 December because of criminal convictions, said that the charges are politically motivated, met Bhutto to convince her to boycott, but failed in his attempt , as she has already diced to contest, citing financial irregularities. Party officials complained of victimization and said they would appeal.

With Nawaz being barred from contesting, it appears that chances of Benazir emerging as Premier looks a foregone conclusion, if she is cleared of her disqualification. Nawaz said he had no plans for an electoral alliance with Bhutto. Although ineligible himself, Sharif has began his party's campaign, after Mrs. Bhutto refused to join a boycott, by demanding the restoration of an independent judiciary and a stronger democracy. But both parties remain skeptical. Benazir disdainfully refers to the president as General Musharraf, even though he formally quit the army two weeks ago. The bad blood goes back a decade, when he initiated the fraud investigations against her.

Benazir doubts the credibility of polls in Pakistan now and that the Jan. 8 elections will be free and fair. Bhutto said that an alliance with the party of Sharif, another former prime minister, would be possible, but ruled out joining with those controlled by Musharraf or Muslim clerics. "It takes more than the lifting of the emergency," she said after a rousing speech here to party workers. She repeated frequent demands that the balloting be carefully supervised to prevent tampering and restrictions lifted on public demonstrations - a campaign staple in a country where personality politics is still the dominant model. "These elections will not be free and fair and that's why we ask them to join our boycott," said Qazi Hussain Ahmed, head of the Jamaat-e-Islamic, a small but influential Islamic party which has a support base in the northwest, and urged parties to boycott the vote.

The election comes amid opposition fears there is too little time before the January 8 election for a free and fair vote and that the result will be biased in favor of parties loyal to Musharraf, raising the prospect of a contested result. Western and Indian media are also of similar views. The Pakistani media, curbed under emergency rule imposed by Musharraf last month, said authorities were trying to restrict election coverage with a warning not to violate a ban on live broadcasts, or risk three years in jail. "It's not only a warning but a threat to all TV channels and an attempt to silence the free media," the Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists said in a statement. Any contested result would lead to the prospect of more instability in the nuclear-armed U.S. ally. Hence US would support the poll irrespective of what they say.

Pakistan's main opposition leaders have geared up their election machinery at national level, with some understaning for seat sharing to challenge President Pervez Musharraf. After a vote boycott drive disintegrated, both former Prime ministers Benazir and Sharif, organized public meetings as a campaign clouded by worries of vote rigging and media curbs gathered momentum. Both are critical of Musharraf's style democracy. Sharif has threatened to reopen the Kargil chapter to focus of Musharraf's adventure there. Though earlier she cleared Musharraf of his involvement in blasts in her presence, Bhutto is now convinced that the Musharraf government either helped plan the attack on her homecoming convoy in October, or protected those who did that. How far these allegations would cut ice with the electorate also remains to be seen.

It is becoming clear that PPP of Benazir is ahead of Sharif's party, although both habe made some understndng in select areas. Bhutto returned to Pakistan last month from an eight year self-imposed exile to challenge President Pervez Musharraf's grip on power. According to her, Musharraf's political allies are likely to fare badly in the election, putting a question mark over his long-term rule. Bhutto said she was confident her Pakistan People's Party would sweep the January 8 general election. Bhutto said joining with the party of Sharif would be possible but ruled out an alliance with those controlled by Musharraf or Muslim clerics, the newspaper reported. "No one will accept a pro-Musharraf PML victory," she said.

But the PML, formed to give Musharraf a political base after his 1999 coup, might fare badly as his popularity slumped this year amid his efforts to replace a Supreme Court chief seen as hostile to his government, and because of emergency. But since other major leaders Sharif and Benazir are fully exposed as corrupt leaders, Musharraf could still be preferred by the masses. Blaming the western media for many of his woes, President Musharraf has once said that he was ready to "work" with opposition leader Benazir Bhutto if she wins the January vote, but remained non-committal on lifting a ban on her becoming the premier for the third time. On the lifting of a third term ban for Bhutto, Musharraf said he had made no such promise to the US.

"Terrorism" is an issue which can come handy to the ruling party and its leader Musharraf. But Benazir and Sharif also would dent on the issue to gain an upper hand in discrediting Musharraf's regime. It is claimed that Pakistani tribal areas along the border are known as safe havens for al Qaeda and ethnic Pashtun Taliban militants who fled U.S.-led forces hunting them in Afghanistan following the September 11 attacks in 2001. But in recent years, militants have spread their activities towards urban centers of NWFP, including Peshawar, launching suicide bomb attacks and fighting police and army forces. Since government forces stormed the Red Mosque in the capital Islamabad in July to crush a Taliban-style movement, attacks have spread across the country and grown in intensity. Official sources say around 800 people have died in violence since July. Obviously a lot of heat is being generated on the issue as much as absence of climate for "free and fair" polls in Pakistan.

It appears, Pakistan is heading for a hung-Parliament, with no single party obtaining absolute majority. Whether Benazir would be able to make maximum gains out the current political upheaval remains to be seen. Post-poll combinations and permutations would centre President Musharraf's regime. None of the parties is capable of winning absolute majority in the Assemblies. The opposition combine would make every possible effort to out-seat Musharraf by re-amending the Constitution.

But it seems, President Musharraf, despite the black-mark he bears on account of his role in Lal Mosque tragedy and emergency as well as his partnership with Presdient Bush, is still better placed than others right now with the lifting of emergency. Not only he survived the "political earth-quake", amended the Constitution to support his rule, but he has also become the President for the second time-the goal he nurtured for long. The decision of the opposition to enter poll-fray has become shot in his arms. A united opposition boycott would have robbed the vote of credibility and prolong instability. A boycott involving only Sharif and his allies, including the second biggest religious party and the small party of former cricket hero Imran Khan, could merely tarnish the election.

The January 08 election is crucial for Musharraf, who has to see that his regime remains intact after the polls.A poor showing in the election could mean a hostile parliament that might even move to impeach Musharraf, who stepped down as army chief last month, over accusations he acted unconstitutionally in securing a new term as president. Musharraf needs to muster the same two-thirds to indemnify his presidency against legal challenges by parliament. But every thing now depends on the response to the lifting the state of emergency by the opposition parties and how they conduct themselves in the remaining part of electioneering. Will Musharraf survive the forthcoming "poll earth-quake" too?