The New Nation - Internet Edition

Climate change is urgent, real and happening. Large parts of the sub-continent will be worst impacted. We are climate victims.

In Bali and after, India must take strong, proactive and a leadership role on climate change. It must ask for tougher emission cuts by rich nations. India must suggest the framework within which it can take action to 'avoid' emissions. India should demand a per capita entitlement framework to limit the emissions for all in the world. Equity is a pre-requisite for a global agreement on climate.

The 13th Conference of Parties (CoP) to the climate convention, underway in the paradise Indonesian island of Bali, has started with an advantage over previous such meetings: an overwhelming consensus that climate change is real. That it is happening and the time to act before temperatures spiral out of control is small. Urgent and drastic action, therefore, is needed.

Bali must be told in no uncertain terms that the impacts of climate change are here and now. The voices of the victims of climate change must be heard. The tropical cyclone Sidr, which ripped through Bangladesh, left thousands dead and millions homeless. They died because the rich failed to contain emissions necessary for their growth.

This is the challenge of climate science. It is clear that while we will never be able to make absolute predictions or direct correlations between events that we see around us and the warming that is now inevitable, there is enough evidence to make connections. For instance, we know that climate change will lead to intensification of tropical cyclone events. We also know that rainfall in our world will become more variable - devastating for people dependent on rain-fed agriculture. We can already see the rapid melting of glaciers which will threaten water security in large parts of the country.

But while the science is certain, the politics still stinks. Climate change is related to economic growth and wealth creation. The bulk of greenhouse emissions are related to burning of fossil fuels, for the energy that drives the world. It is no wonder then that the rich industrialised world, responsible for the bulk of the emissions in the atmosphere, has found it difficult to cut its emissions. After all, "its lifestyle is not negotiable", as a former American president has said.

In 1997, rich countries agreed to make a small cut in their emissions, but they are reneging on their commitment. Between 1990 and 2005, rich country emissions went up by 11 per cent; emissions from the growth-related energy sector increased by 15 per cent. Australia's carbon dioxide emissions increased by 37 per cent; Canada's by 27 per cent and that of the US, by 20 per cent. Within the energy sector, energy-related industry emissions increased by 24 per cent; transport by 28 per cent. No country has yet been able to build a low carbon economy, or to re-invent its growth path. In spite of all its big talk, new renewables - wind, solar, geothermal and biomass-accounted for 0.5 per cent of the world's primary energy supplies in 2005. As more and more cars crowd road spaces and emissions from the transport sector grow, countries are looking to biofuels as the way out-but is there enough land and water to grow both food and fuel?

In this growth path, 'more' is the mantra. While science tells us that drastic reductions are needed, no country is talking about limiting consumption.

This is our message to Bali and after: Get serious; get real. India must take the lead in this at Bali to draw the roadmap that will enable us to live beyond the 13th CoP.

Rich must take action, not give small change: India must insist that that the rich world (including climate renegades like the US) need to reduce emissions drastically - 30 per cent by 2020 and 80 per cent by 2050. There is no comparison between the emissions of countries like India or even China and rich big emitters of the world. There is a stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, built up over centuries in the process of creating nations' wealth. This is the natural debt of nations.

Calculated in terms of total emissions of each country since the early 1900s, every living American is found to carry a natural debt burden of more than 1,050 tonne of carbon dioxide. In comparison, every living Chinese has a natural debt of 68 tonne, and every living Indian, only 25 tonne. The current emission divide is even more. The per capita emissions of carbon dioxide from fuel combustion in the US stands at about 20 tonne per year-in China, it is 4 tonne and in India, 1.1 tonne.

The rich world needs to repay its natural debt. It needs to reduce its emissions, to make space so that the poorer nations can grow.

The emerging rich and poor can grow differently: India must also put forward a plan for itself and other countries to find low-carbon growth strategies without compromising their right to develop. Countries like China and India can invest in leapfrog technologies to avoid pollution and increase energy efficiency.

Reform and redesign the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to make it effective: Currently, the biggest flaw in the CDM is that it is designed to get the cheapest emission reductions options for the industrialised world. As a result, the price of CERs - the certified emission reduction unit used in this transaction-has never reflected the cost of renewable and other high technology options. In fact, 'additionality' clauses in CDM provide disincentives for governments in the South to drive policies for clean energy or production.

A case for equal per capita entitlements: In the given circumstances, effective emission cuts are only possible if we create rights and entitlements of each nation to the atmosphere, so that future responsibilities are clearly demarcated. Way back in 1991, CSE had proposed the concept of equal per capita entitlements to greenhouse gas emissions. In this model, the countries would be assigned entitlements based on their population.

The national entitlement could then be the basis of a global trading system. Countries with excess entitlements could use the trading mechanism to sell emission quotas and invest in low- or zero-carbon technologies. This will provide a framework of climate justice and effective action.

But as much as the world needs to design a system of equity between nations, a similar system needs to be in place within nations. The rich in India almost emit as much as the rich elsewhere. It is the poor in India, with no access to energy, who provide us the breathing space. India's urban-industrial sector is energy-intensive and wasteful, while its rural sector is energy-poor and frugal. Assigned on an equal per capita basis, India's entitlements, thus, would mean that the country's rich pay its poor for excess energy use.

Climate justice is the only effective way for the future.

(Source: CSE Media Briefing. For more on the subject of climate change and global negotiations, including the Down To Earth special issue, please visit www. cseindia.org and www. downtoearth. org.in)