The New Nation - Internet Edition

Mostafa Kamal Majumder

The number of people infected with the AIDS-virus marked a steep rise by 333 from 874 to 1207 in just one year ending on December 1, but people at the helm of the AIDS-STD Programme of the government still see an 'Window of opportunity' to keep spread of the pandemic under control.

Some knowledgeable experts have expressed their reservations about the complacency and have termed it a potentially dangerous optimism about a volcano which is showing dangers of eruption. 'What is the basis of this optimism?' asked one such expert pointing at the detection of more than one fourth of the total HIV-infected cases in one year.

According to information released on the December-1 World AIDS Day, of the total HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) infected cases detected so far, 365 developed AIDS and 123 are dead. During the last one year alone 125 new full-blown AIDS cases were identified and 14 of them died, as per the official information.

Programme officials base their complacency on seven rounds of HIV surveillance carried out from 1998 to 2006 to assert that the HIV rate is below one percent, and that only among the intravenous drug users (IUDs) the rate is seven per cent - indicating a concentrated epidemic.

Other experts, however, point out that although the rate of spread of the disease from the HIV-positive IUDs to the general population has not been viewed as a serious threat - the brothels remain vulnerable to such rates of infection because safe-sex promotion there has not been a success. If any brothel is infected the disease will spread like wildfire.There are reports about HIV infection in one brothel, and experts await confirmation before admitting this.

Brothels in Bangladesh have Asia's highest client rate, and thus also pose the greatest risk of spreading HIV infections if programme activities in those continue to be unsuccessful.

Safe blood transfusion in 98 centres established by the government is good, and the programme is being expanded. But there are several hundred private blood transfusion centres where blood is not screened for HIV and four other diseases. Unless these centres are brought under control they may undo the benefits of the creation of the safe blood transfusion programme, experts fear.

Another great danger is posed by the absence of adequate education and counselling of the millions of workers who are engaged in jobs abroad and routinely visit the country almost every year. Fact remains that about 80 per cent of the cases detected so far contracted infections abroad when they were away from their families. Education and counselling among the members of the armed forces who went on peacekeeping missions abroad have proved successful, and following the detection of three HIV-positive cases years ago no new case has been found. The success is due to effective counselling. But millions of job workers go abroad almost without any counselling. Experts say foreign job seekers must be made to pass HIV/AIDS awareness tests before leaving the country.

The people have so far been lucky that those (detected ones) who contracted infections abroad have restrained themselves from risky behaviour back at home because of the shame that they are living with. But what if the undetected ones visit brothels?

Then again, while the number of detected cases continue to go up AIDS/STD Programme officials continue to lower the number of estimated HIV cases. This year the number of estimated HIV cases has been put at 7,500 - a 2004 figure. HIV/AIDS experts had worked out a compromise figure about the number of estimated cases in the early nineties. When World Bank experts suggested that the figure might be 39,000, Bangladesh experts mentioned some factors to reach a compromise figure of 20,000. That number was gradually brought down to 7,500 three years ago. Programme officials have no figure for this year as if it has gone further down now.