The New Nation - Internet Edition

Rafiqul Islam Azad

As many as 30 million Bangladeshis would become climate refugees if the sea-level rises by one metre in this century due to climate change and causes loss of 15 per cent of its landmass, according to a report published by International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).

“Bangladesh is located in a vulnerable geographical region. It has a high population density, weak institutions, low levels of development and poor economic strength. These factors conspire to make Bangladesh very vulnerable to present climate variability and future change in climate,” said the report.

The IIED formally launched the 93-page report on “Up in Smoke? Asia and the Pacific: The threat from climate change to human development and the environment in London on Monday.

The report said the climate changes ahead could be extremely detrimental to economy, to the environment to the national development and to the people of Bangladesh.

Poor and disadvantaged groups in the country are directly affected by climate change, it said.

The report mentioned that rising temperatures and changes in rainfall have already affected crop production in many parts of Bangladesh. Further temperature increases may lower crop production putting stress on national food security, it said.

“According to projections, national food-gain requirements will be 41.6 million tones in the year 2030. To become self-sufficient in food-grain production by 2030, an additional 14.64 million tones is, therefore, required. But the affects of climate change on crop production mean that farmers are unlikely to be able to provide food grain for their fellow citizens,” the report said adding, “Unless appropriate adoption measures are considered now, food-grain self-sufficiency will remain a distant dream for Bangladesh.”

According to report accelerated melting of glaciers in the Himalayas will increase flooding in Bangladesh and at the same time the increase of size of the glaciers will also lead to more drought in the northern regions of the country as river flows will decrease even further.

The report said the costal areas of Bangladesh are vulnerable to climate change in a multitude of ways.

Cyclones, storm surges, drainage congestion, and sea-level rise directly affect coastal regions. Agriculture, industry, infrastructure, livelihoods, marine resources, forestry and bio-diversity, human health and utility services will be affected due to climate change, the report said.

It said most of the country is less than ten metres above sea level with about ten per cent less that one-metre above the mean sea level.

“One-third of the country is vulnerable to high tides. The IPCC expects sea-level rise during the early part of the twenty-first century to be an average of two to three millimeters per year due to global warming, although this varies by areas,” the report said.

It said, Bangladesh is known for the cyclones that cause huge damage and flooding in coastal areas. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the frequency of cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal has declined since 1971 but the intensity of the synclines is increasing.

The report, however, observed that the government initiatives to build cyclone shelters and establish early warning systems have meant fewer lives have been lost, but more efforts are needed.

The report was co-coordinated by the New Economics Foundation (NEF) and the International Institute for Environment and Development with support and contributions from the Working Group on Climate Change and Development and their partners.

Dr Saleemul Huq, Head of Climate Change at IIED said the reports combine concerns about both the environment and the welfare of people in developing countries.

This year’s focus on Asia is crucial as the region is home to almost two thirds of the world’s people, hundreds of millions of whom face growing risks from rising seas and extreme climatic events such as droughts. The new report highlights the key role Asian nations have to play in global efforts to both mitigate climate change and adapt to its effects, he said.

In the preface of the report, Dr R.K. Pachauri, Chairman of the Nobel prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said that without immediate action, global warming is set to reverse decades of social and economic progress across Asia, home to over 60 per cent of the world’s population.

The report showed how, across Asia, people and communities are already acting to reduce the worst impacts of climate change.

Unless a decisive international agreement is reached, and soon, the lives of those living on the front line of climate change will go up in smoke, the preface said.