The New Nation - Internet Edition

Anumita Roychoudhury

We need to act fast to recover our right to clean air · Delhi will wake up this winter to more smog and pollution; more wheeze and asthma · City is on the verge of losing the gains of its CNG programme. Air pollution is on its way back to pre-2000 levels. At stake are global events like the 2010 Commonwealth Games and our health · City must take steps to reverse these losses fast · Second generation reforms will need tough action. Soft options have all been exhausted. Restricting car numbers and upgrading public transport are the only options for the city New Delhi, November 6, 2007: Delhi is in danger of losing the gains of its CNG programme as pollution levels are once again creeping up to pre-2000 level.

A latest analysis of recent air quality data in Delhi carried out by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) finds that pollution levels are on the upswing again after a few years of control. Last winter, for the first time, pollution levels increased and this year pollution levels are already almost as high as what was in the city in pre-CNG days. Says Sunita Narain, director, CSE: "We will have to take tough measures to control growing air pollution and fast. Otherwise, Delhi will find itself in the choked and toxic haze of the pre-CNG days, when diesel-driven buses and autos had made it one of the most polluted cities on earth." · In 2002, when the CNG programme was initiated in the capital, the annual average levels of respirable suspended particulate matter (RSPM, or PM10) in residential areas stood at 143 microgram per cubic metre.

They dropped to 115 microgram per cubic metre by 2005. The upward swing is now noticeable since 2006 when the annual average levels have jumped back to 136 microgram per cubic metre. The monthly average levels of RSPM in the winter of 2006-07 was as high as 350 microgram per cubic metre. The levels can even be higher this winter. · This year, the daily levels of even finer particulates smaller than 2.5-micron size (PM2.5), have already reached 240 microgram per cubic metre in Delhi in end-October.

Studies in the US show that an increase of only 10 microgram per cubic metre of PM2.5 is associated with significant increases in health risks. High exposure to PM2.5 is known to lead to increased hospitalisation for asthma, lung diseases, chronic bronchitis and heart damage. Long-term exposure can cause lung cancer.

· Levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx) have been increasing in the city to dangerous levels, which is a clear sign of pollution from vehicles. 1st generation reforms have exhausted options In the past five years, the city has done all it can to reduce pollution.

It has advanced emission norms of vehicles; strengthened its 'pollution under control' system with new equipment; capped the number of its autorickshaws; converted buses to CNG; made it mandatory for new light commercial vehicles to run on CNG; and restricted commercial vehicles from entering the city. But in spite of all these actions, pollution levels are on the rise. The 2nd generation reforms needed to combat air pollution will need to address new challenges - the exponential growth of private vehicles and in particular, diesel vehicles in the city. Private vehicles take up space and pollute as well Delhi has more than four million registered vehicles. Currently, the city adds 963 new personal vehicles each day on its roads. This is almost double what was added in the city in pre-CNG days.

Little has been done to plan for public transport in the city and connectivity between the growing cities of the National Capital Region. It is no wonder then that the National Highway 8 - the Delhi-Gurgaon road - which was designed for a traffic volume of 160,000 vehicles by 2015, already has 130,000 cars fighting for space.

The Environment Pollution (Prevention and Control) Authority (EPCA) in its recent report has noted that bus numbers in the city do not even add up to the target of 10,000 set by the Supreme Court way back in July 1998. Clearly, a massive initiative to increase public transport is needed along with steps to restrain the growth of private vehicles.

Diesel mania According to the Society for Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), market share of diesel cars has already increased to over 30 per cent in the last 18 months.

The share of diesel cars is expected to be 50 per cent of total car sales by 2010.

This growth in personal diesel vehicle numbers will undo all the efforts to reduce pollution by phasing out diesel buses and converting them to CNG. Says Anumita Roychoudhury, head of CSE's air pollution campaign, "Even at a very conservative estimate, the total number of diesel cars presently in Delhi is equivalent to adding particulate emissions from nearly 30,000 diesel buses." Diesel vehicles are known to emit higher smoke, particles and NOx than their petrol counterparts. According to WHO and other international regulatory and scientific agencies, diesel particulates are carcinogens. Even the so-called 'clean' diesel running on fuel with 350 ppm of sulphur, allows higher limits for NOx and particulate emissions compared to petrol cars.

The future is in our hands At this rate, every winter will turn back the pollution clock. Every year, asthma and other respiratory diseases will only increase. If Delhi does not want to wheeze, choke and sneeze, it must act, and immediately. Its work with CNG shows that it can make a difference.

(CSE - Centre for Science and Environment is India's leading environmental watchdog based in Delhi.)