The New Nation - Internet Edition

SOME steps to contain inflation that the Bangladesh Bank Governor announced about a month ago needs to be followed up in time with appropriate policies. The tasks of the central bank is a delicate one in controlling inflation as it essentially involves money supply. Limiting money supply in a bid to contain inflation can turn out to be as undesirable as inflation itself. With credit squeeze as the most used weapon to reduce money supply, the credit needs of businesses suffer and lead to economic stagnation. Therefore, the Bangladesh Bank will have to weigh and apply policies exceptionally carefully. The central bank will be expected to play the role of a balancer between the needs of the economy and the unproductive spending for meeting both ends without allowing inflation to take wings.

Already the government's borrowing from the financial system has reached a record level. Therefore, the challenge for the caretaker government is to put on a leash government's spending so that the borrowing can decrease. The relevant ministries will have to plan promptly how government's spending can be pruned without hurting spending on essentials and for election preparations. A plan should be prepared swiftly for implementation. This would be an important step towards controlling money supply for creating a damper on inflation. But while doing this, every effort should be made to meet well the genuine credit needs of the private sector. Even policies can be tried to encourage borrowing by the private sector through lowering the lending rate and other measures. Credit expansion to the private sector that leads to production of goods and services do not so much add to inflation because the money supply expansion is matched by greater output of goods and services. Inflation becomes a formidable problem when non-productive expenditures start shooting up which have no direct relation to productivity. Government needs to limit such spending on the one hand while ensuring adequate credit flow to the private sector on the other, to get the best results.

The rate of inflation is rising higher and higher. Inflation is putting on a reverse the gains that were made in the struggle against poverty in the decades of the eighties and nineties. Poverty alleviation in large measure boils down to people having more disposable incomes in their hands after buying the basic necessities for survival. But that disposable income for the greatest number in the population who have an existence below the poverty line or close to it, has been dwindling down progressively. All-out efforts should be made by the government to increase revenue collection. If this succeeds, then the need for the government to borrow from the financial system will decline and the private sector can have greater access to funds from shrinking demand of the same from the government. The appropriate squeeze on money supply to tame inflation can also be achieved in large measure by withholding disbursement of funds to projects that do not call for early implementation.

BANGLADESH can fairly soon much reduce its dependence on foreign aid and carry out its developmental activities by its own efforts by relying on its own strengths. Policies to this end are needed and these can be of the type of 'helping people to help themselves'. The main aim should be exporting in increased number our best ready resource which is manpower. The large amounts of remitted foreign currencies has already boosted up the country's foreign exchange reserve which can strengthen its import operations in support of economy expanding activities. The remittances will help the families of expatriate workers to fast climb out of poor standards of living to a better one.

It was estimated that remittances can multiply within a short period of time to fulfil the above vision if only a proper policy is put into operation. Numerous potential workers are there who cannot go abroad due to some constraints. In many cases, they are unskilled and there is little demand for unskilled workers. The government can play a very useful role by providing training opportunities in diverse areas for these people to go abroad as skilled workers.

People should be admitted free of charge at such skill training centres on the condition that they would pay back for their training costs once they get employment. Neither the trainer nor the trainee stands to lose anything from such an arrangement. But the value of it would be the fast creation of an ever growing body of trained people for the country's own use and overseas markets. Finance is another formidable barrier faced by people in going abroad. So many cases are noted in which desperate people sell off their last valuable possessions to raise the fees of private manpower exporters. The need for such risky steps discourages many from even considering going abroad. Here also, the government can play a very useful role by asking the banks to extend collateral free loans to persons wanting to go abroad on terms and conditions that the loans would be progressively repaid with nominal interest after they reach their destinations of employment abroad.

The foreign missions will have to be activated sufficiently also in support of a dynamic manpower policy. To this end they would be expected to assess prospects for our manpower and help reach contracts at government as well as private levels. They should be also obliged to represent our workers sincerely and unfailingly in all cases where foreign employers may breach terms of contract involving underpayment and other abuses. Higher remittance flow can also be achieved by setting up many more remittance houses abroad and very cooperative and easy working conditions in them. People who would work in these remittance houses can be motivated to offer better services by giving them various incentives.

Anumita Roychoudhury

We need to act fast to recover our right to clean air · Delhi will wake up this winter to more smog and pollution; more wheeze and asthma · City is on the verge of losing the gains of its CNG programme. Air pollution is on its way back to pre-2000 levels. At stake are global events like the 2010 Commonwealth Games and our health · City must take steps to reverse these losses fast · Second generation reforms will need tough action. Soft options have all been exhausted. Restricting car numbers and upgrading public transport are the only options for the city New Delhi, November 6, 2007: Delhi is in danger of losing the gains of its CNG programme as pollution levels are once again creeping up to pre-2000 level.

A latest analysis of recent air quality data in Delhi carried out by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) finds that pollution levels are on the upswing again after a few years of control. Last winter, for the first time, pollution levels increased and this year pollution levels are already almost as high as what was in the city in pre-CNG days. Says Sunita Narain, director, CSE: "We will have to take tough measures to control growing air pollution and fast. Otherwise, Delhi will find itself in the choked and toxic haze of the pre-CNG days, when diesel-driven buses and autos had made it one of the most polluted cities on earth." · In 2002, when the CNG programme was initiated in the capital, the annual average levels of respirable suspended particulate matter (RSPM, or PM10) in residential areas stood at 143 microgram per cubic metre.

They dropped to 115 microgram per cubic metre by 2005. The upward swing is now noticeable since 2006 when the annual average levels have jumped back to 136 microgram per cubic metre. The monthly average levels of RSPM in the winter of 2006-07 was as high as 350 microgram per cubic metre. The levels can even be higher this winter. · This year, the daily levels of even finer particulates smaller than 2.5-micron size (PM2.5), have already reached 240 microgram per cubic metre in Delhi in end-October.

Studies in the US show that an increase of only 10 microgram per cubic metre of PM2.5 is associated with significant increases in health risks. High exposure to PM2.5 is known to lead to increased hospitalisation for asthma, lung diseases, chronic bronchitis and heart damage. Long-term exposure can cause lung cancer.

· Levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx) have been increasing in the city to dangerous levels, which is a clear sign of pollution from vehicles. 1st generation reforms have exhausted options In the past five years, the city has done all it can to reduce pollution.

It has advanced emission norms of vehicles; strengthened its 'pollution under control' system with new equipment; capped the number of its autorickshaws; converted buses to CNG; made it mandatory for new light commercial vehicles to run on CNG; and restricted commercial vehicles from entering the city. But in spite of all these actions, pollution levels are on the rise. The 2nd generation reforms needed to combat air pollution will need to address new challenges - the exponential growth of private vehicles and in particular, diesel vehicles in the city. Private vehicles take up space and pollute as well Delhi has more than four million registered vehicles. Currently, the city adds 963 new personal vehicles each day on its roads. This is almost double what was added in the city in pre-CNG days.

Little has been done to plan for public transport in the city and connectivity between the growing cities of the National Capital Region. It is no wonder then that the National Highway 8 - the Delhi-Gurgaon road - which was designed for a traffic volume of 160,000 vehicles by 2015, already has 130,000 cars fighting for space.

The Environment Pollution (Prevention and Control) Authority (EPCA) in its recent report has noted that bus numbers in the city do not even add up to the target of 10,000 set by the Supreme Court way back in July 1998. Clearly, a massive initiative to increase public transport is needed along with steps to restrain the growth of private vehicles.

Diesel mania According to the Society for Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), market share of diesel cars has already increased to over 30 per cent in the last 18 months.

The share of diesel cars is expected to be 50 per cent of total car sales by 2010.

This growth in personal diesel vehicle numbers will undo all the efforts to reduce pollution by phasing out diesel buses and converting them to CNG. Says Anumita Roychoudhury, head of CSE's air pollution campaign, "Even at a very conservative estimate, the total number of diesel cars presently in Delhi is equivalent to adding particulate emissions from nearly 30,000 diesel buses." Diesel vehicles are known to emit higher smoke, particles and NOx than their petrol counterparts. According to WHO and other international regulatory and scientific agencies, diesel particulates are carcinogens. Even the so-called 'clean' diesel running on fuel with 350 ppm of sulphur, allows higher limits for NOx and particulate emissions compared to petrol cars.

The future is in our hands At this rate, every winter will turn back the pollution clock. Every year, asthma and other respiratory diseases will only increase. If Delhi does not want to wheeze, choke and sneeze, it must act, and immediately. Its work with CNG shows that it can make a difference.

(CSE - Centre for Science and Environment is India's leading environmental watchdog based in Delhi.)

M.T. Hussain

There is an opinion in the media that on one point Col(R) Rashid's stand appeared contradictory. The point was that he admitted to accept Sheikh Mujib as the 'father of the nation' and yet stood with no remorse for the action he participated in ousting, toppling and replacing the Sheikh from the State power of Bangladesh in mid August 1975, as was seen in a private TV channel in Dhaka on the 7th November.

To me, there was no contradiction. My reason may be summarised in the following way.

Sheikh Mujib, historically it is true, emerged as the leader number one of the country in late 1960s and remained so high in early 1970s earning respect and honour from majority people that earned for him and his party as the absolute winner in the 1970 general election. The same election result and following complicacies in power transfer led to the 1971 war for independence of Bangladesh that further turned Mujib as the supreme leader for independence of Bangladesh, and so came up the question of the 'father of the nation'.

However, it took only a very short time in independent Bangladesh for Mujib to turn unpopular not without reason but for rapidly increasing trend of frustration among the millions of common people passing days in extreme poverty and all other difficulties. In late 1974 a famine took away lives of, according to government data, 27,000 starving people; the unofficial figure of starving deaths ran much more higher than the official figure. Mismanagement not exclusively for inexperience but more for egocentricity of Mujib in the main, widespread corruption mainly among the government party men- leaders, cadres etc. including close family members of the leader Mujib who remained all above law that made things bad to worse day by day.

In December1974, Mujib declared State of Emergency in the country and then on the 25th January 1975 through a mockery of Assembly session for 13 minutes wherein he alone spoke and none was allowed to say anything turned the State into a lone party absolute dictatorship making himself the party chief and the President of the country. Although he had since January 1972 been enjoying absolute power having no open dissent from party men but some from underground ones, the turning of the State formally into one-party dictatorship put the last nail in the coffin of democracy.

Any reasonable dissent stopped forthwith through constitutional amendment and the changes made diametrically opposite in nature from multi-party to one party state that the people never ever thought of in their long struggle for decades for pluralism and multi-party democratic liberal socio-political system. All dissents already being contained through extra constitutional and extra-judicial means multiplied still further as the formal lone party dictatorship took over and so went on to control more harshly any dissenting voice through brutal use of the private forces and more so by the Para-military but unconstitutional and yet euphemistically called Rakkhi Bahini, parallel to and for counter balance of the regular army of the country.

On the cultural front the policies pursued by Mujib government hit hard the past proud heritage of the majority people, the Muslims, so much so that even, for example, deleting Muslim names and nomenclatures like dropping off the term 'Muslim' from the historic appellation of Salimullah Muslim Hall, Fazlul Haq Muslim Hall etc. for, according to them, making Bangladesh 'secular', but very much curiously keeping untouched other religious names! They cared not to ponder even for a while that in secular India the Aligargh Muslim University remained as usual with the Muslim appellation, not only then in 1970s but also even today after 60 years of Indian secularism in practice.

The people had no hope for enjoying their fundamental human rights; no hope either for any change from dictatorship to democracy in normal peaceful democratic process. The matter of total hopelessness engulfed the whole nation.

As is well recorded in documents, the 1975 coup was supported by all and sundry inside the country by common people as the British press had the news items published as I came to know in London immediately after the 15th August coup.

I had other experience in London right then of processions, demonstrations, public meetings in support of the coup held in East London Aldgate area, Oxford Street, Alwych, White Hall precincts, 10 Downing Street, Hyde Park Speakers Corner, Balham Jame Masjid Jumma congregation etc. Curiously the 1971 supporters of Mujib were nowhere there in London.

The immediate recognition not only of the post coup government but also of independent Bangladesh by China and Saudi Arabia, in particular, who denied formal recognition of Bangladesh as an independent country since after it came into being in 1971 not only provided legitimacy of the change but also deterred Indian threatened invasion of post August coup Bangladesh.

Then on, despite attempts of counter-coups, the15th August change that followed by the 7th November people-army uprising having everything same in essence has been keeping Bangladesh re-chart her march forward in pluralism and multi-party democratic process.

To make the long story short in regard to Mujib's position and role for Bangladesh, his role prior to 1971 had been laudable just as Rashid pointed out and then in independent Bangladesh he turned into a dictator. No case was such lodged against the coup until after 21 years in 1996 by Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina alleging the coup makers as simple 'killers' of her father. To lodge the case, she had to go for dubious exercise in by passing and flouting the Fifth Amendment of the Constitution providing for additional indemnity for the 15th August coup operators thus making the case seriously flawed ab initio. However, during her regime for five years (1996-2001), the case after passing on through three stages having had three separate verdicts has now been under consideration in the Supreme Court Appeal Division. Rashid along with 12 others faced death sentence, five of them in Dhaka central prison and six others including Rashid live elsewhere as fugitives.

His interview has only partially been telecast and being abruptly stopped, the contents of the other parts remained in dark for reasons best known to the parties concerned. Common people like us have just only to keep on guessing. Had the full version been known one could ascertain his ideas and intentions to give a better view of his opinion on the issue in question.